Agronomist Notes
Seeding has kicked off for most of my clients and I suspect all will be in full swing by the end of the week. The eastern side of my territory received up to ten inches of snow last week which brought about 1/2 to 1.5 inches of needed moisture. Soil temperatures are remarkably warm, hovering in the four to ten degree Celsius range, with no serious weed germinations to speak of besides volunteer wheat, dandelions and hawk’s beard.
I had a producer email me a picture of barley that he planted on Saturday which had already germinated by Monday morning! Soil temperature at seeding was 9 degrees Celsius. The forecast is for sunny weather this week, showers on the weekend and then sunny weather returning with temps in the mid teens. Here’s hoping they’re right.
I’ll begin this week’s newsletter with a few things to keep in mind if you’ll be seeding this week. Next, I’ll discuss why blending urea with phosphorus is not a great starter fertilizer and then we’ll consider when it’s too early to seed canola. I’ve also included a handy seed treatment chart you can copy and print out for seeding. Ryan Bonnett from FarmLink Marketing Solutions has given us a summary of this year’s spring price endorsement options for Alberta. As always, we’ll end with fundamental and technical grain market news.
Agronomy
Tips and thoughts for the week ahead
- Ground temperatures are warm, so if you plan on applying a post seed herbicide application, be sure to get in there quickly. Shallow seeded (<1”) wheat or barley could emerge within 7 days.
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Germination and emergence should be rapid given the lower residue levels and warmer soil temperatures. If you’re comfortable, you can reduce your seedling mortality rates by 5% given current conditions. For example: Wheat
- Cool soil: 30 plants ft2 x 35 grams ÷ 94% germ - 15% mortality ÷ 10.4 = 128 lbs/ac
- Warm soil: 30 plants ft2 x 35 grams ÷ 94% germ - 10% mortality ÷ 10.4 = 120 lbs/ac
- Don’t expect a long residual period with products like Express Pro and Pre-Pass like we’ve experienced in previous years. Warm soil temps with adequate moisture speed the breakdown of residual herbicides.
- Remember, speed kills. Call a friend, text me, email me, do whatever it takes to keep your eye on that 4.8 mph reading on the monitor when seeding this week. If it’s canola, make that 4.3 mph. SL
Applying urea in a band with phosphate increases pH and reduces micronutrient availability
It is very common to blend urea with phosphate and then place 30% with the seed and 70% below or to the side in a double shoot system. Unfortunately, this common practice can have a significant impact on soil pH, phosphate and micronutrient availability. For example, did you know that the soil which immediately surrounds a urea granule will have a pH of around 9.0! Further, studies have shown that even a slightly acidic soil with a pH of 6.0 will increase to 8.7 around the band of urea.
During the process of hydrolysis, urease enzymes act as a catalyst in the breakdown of urea to ammonia. Ammonia NH3 has a high affinity for water and reacts with H20 to form ammonium NH4+. The process of hydrolysis consumes an H+ ion which subsequently increases the soil pH around the band of urea. The pH of the soil can remain high for up to 25 days in some soils, even those which are slightly acidic. This is where I get concerned.
If you look at the chart above you can see how nutrient availability increases and decreases along the pH scale. Take particular notice to phosphorus which decreases in availability quite rapidly once you reach a pH level around 7.5 and higher. Now put that in the context of blending urea with phosphorus and placing it in the soil. You’ve now driven the pH up around that band and reduced the amount of phosphorus available to the seedling. Not a good strategy in my mind. So now what?
I recommend you separate phosphorus from urea and place it directly with the seed for maximum uptake. Another strategy I use in high pH soils or those with soil test levels less than 20 lbs/ac of P is to add ammonium sulphate with the phosphorus in a blend. Research has shown that the addition of ammonium sulphate can improve the uptake of phosphorus in wheat, barley, lentils and soybeans. The addition of ammonium sulphate actually drops the pH in the soil around the band which makes P more available. Canola seems to be a good scavenger of phosphorus from the soil so research did not find any increase in P uptake when adding ammonium sulphate in the P blend.
In the end, if you farm soil that’s high in pH or low in phosphorus, you should definitely look into separating phosphorus from the urea. The improved phosphorus uptake generates faster emergence, maturity and yield. Last year, a cold, dry year, I had one client start harvesting wheat a week earlier than anyone else in his area. He farms high pH, low phosphorus soils and coincidently applies all the P with the seed, separate from the urea. SL
Phosphorus uptake and ammonium: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/journal/120822631/abstract?CRETRY=1&SRETRY=0
Banding of urea article: http://jeq.scijournals.org/cgi/content/abstract/38/4/1383
Separate N from P article: http://www.beyondagronomy.com/newsletter/9_10_2007.htm
Can I seed canola next week?
If you plan on seeding canola next week, here is what I suggest. First, understand that seeding canola as shallow as we do with soil temps between 5 and 10 degrees, will trigger some emergence within seven days. If you look at the chart, 50% of the plants will emerge within 5 days when average soil temps are 16 degrees and 16 days if soil temps average 4 degrees. We’re somewhere in between that so you can expect 50% emergence within 7 to 10 days.
If it was April 25th and I was planning on seeding canola, I would look at the long term temperature forecast and identify any hard frost events (-3 C) or cold fronts moving in. If the frost or cold front coincides with 50% emergence then hold off seeding for a few days. For example, it’s April 25th, soil temps are 8 degrees Celsius and it looks like I will see 50% emergence within 10 days. The forecast is for a cold front with lows of -5 C on May 5th and 6th. I would hold off seeding canola until April 30 and target emergence dates thereafter. For a great chart on long term temperature forecasts go to http://www.theweathernetwork.com/fourteenday/caab0302
Chart source: Canola Council of Canada
Cereal Seed Treatment Comparison Chart
Dividend XL RTA: http://www.syngentacropprotection.com/prodrender/index.aspx?nav=OVERVIEW&ProdID=699&ProdNM=Dividend%20XL%20RTA
Raxil MD: http://www.bayercropscience.ca/products/seed-treatments/raxil/
Rancona Apex: http://www.uap.ca/products/documents/RanconaPerformance_Sumry_APEX_WEST_CAN_FINAL_kal.pdf
| Products | Gemini | Charter | Raxil | Dividend XL | Rancon |
| Active Ingredient | Triticonazole | Triticonazole | Tebuconazole | Difenoconazole | Ipconazole |
| Wheat Diseases | |||||
| Loose Smut | X | X | X | X | X |
| Common Bunt | X | X | X | X | X |
| Fusarium seed rot | X | X | X | X | X |
| Fusarium seedling blight | X | X | X | X | X |
| Fusarium crown & root rot | X* | X* | X | X* | X* |
| Cochiliobolus root rot | X* | X | X | X* | X* |
| Cochiliobolus seedling | X | X* | X | X | |
| Pythium damping off | X | X | X | X | |
| Take All | X* | ||||
| Barley Diseases | * | ||||
| True loose smut | X | X | X | X | |
| Covered smut | X | X | X | X | X |
| False loose smut | X | X | X | X | X |
| Fusarium seed rot | X | X | X | X | X |
| Fusarium seedling blight | X | X | X | X | |
| Fusarium crown rot & root | X* | X* | X* | X* | X* |
| Cochiliobolus root rot | X* | X | X* | X* | X* |
| Cochiliobolus seeding | X* | X* | X* | X | |
| Pythium damping off | X | X | X | X | |
| Take All | X* | ||||
| Application rate ml/1000 | 360 | 300 | 300 | 325 | 325 |
| Application rate: Wheat | 61 | 114 | 122 | 113 | 113 |
| Application rate: Barley | 76 | 142 | 153 | 141 | 141 |
| Application rate: Oats | 108 | 201 | 216 | 199 | 199 |
| Cost: Wheat $/bu | $2.47 | $2.21 | $2.59 | $2.71 | $2.62 |
| Cost: Barley $/bu | $1.97 | $1.77 | $2.07 | $2.16 | $2.09 |
| Cost: Oats $/bu | $1.39 | $1.25 | $1.46 | $1.53 | $1.48 |
AFSC Spring Price Endorsement (SPE)
Alberta crop insurance releases a program each year to help farmers insure against price risk on their farm. Producers should look this at very seriously. In our area, four crops are the most crucial: Red Spring wheat, canola, barley and peas.
The format as to how these prices are calculated is beneficial to producers this year. Historically wide basis levels and good averaging periods should help farmers see a healthy return on this option for 2010. In making this decision you will have one of two outcomes either it will minimum double the money you put in or you will forfeit all the money you put in. Please see the chart below as to our opinion on what to take, what not to take and why. A Note on No. 2 Red Spring wheat: this one will be close with lower wheat acres in the US it may hold futures higher than the $5.40 and we need the $CDN to be at least $0.98
| Crop | SPE price | 90% of price to trigger payout | Cost ranges at 80% coverage ** | Minimum payout if triggered *** | What you need for a payout | Take or Don't |
| 2RS | $4.68/bu | $4.21/bu | $7-$11/acre | $0.48/bu | Mnpls futures avg < $5.40/bu with min $0.98 CDN | 50/50 |
| 2RS 13.5 pro | $4.68/bu | $4.21/bu – spread * | $7-$11/acre | $1.10/bu | Same as above but subject to high vs. low protein spread. | DON'T |
| Barley | $3.05/bu | $2.74/bu | $6-$9/acre | $0.32/bu | Dec futures avg < $146/mt | TAKE |
| Canola | $9.07/bu | $8.16/bu | $6-$8/acre | $0.91/bu | Nov futures avg < $380/mt | TAKE |
| Peas | $4.49/bu | $4.04/bu | $6-$8/acre | $0.45/bu | Mixed price avg < $4.04/bu | DON'T |
* 2RS 13.5 pro calculation uses protein spread between 13.5 and 11.5 RSW, currently the spread is $0.62/bu.
** Cost ranges will differ on each farm depending on average yield.
*** Minimum payout is exactly at the 90% level if the average is lower payout will be higher.
- 2RS 13.0 pro – same as above but most likely will see wide protein spreads this year; if you grow high pro wheat it should not be taken.
- Barley – calculated off Wpg futures which is a dead contract but its calculated basis benefits the farmer – very good shot this will pay out
- Canola – big acres seeded this year and average price calculated at harvest when futures have pressure, very good shot this will pay out
- Peas – hard to argue prices going further lower and if they will average lower than $4/bu during harvest, too risky to pay the money for protection
Scenario:
1,000 acres of canola – 32 bu avg yield at 80% coverage = cost of $6.90/acre
Market averages $8.16/bu or 10% below SPE
Total cost = $6.90 x 1,000 acres = $6,900 or $6.90/acre
Payout = minimum payout x coverage % x average yield x number of acres
$0.91/bu x 80% x 32 bu/ac x 1,000 ac = $23,300 or $23.30/ac
That’s a minimum 337% return on investment.
Ryan Bonnett
Marketing Advisor
Farm Link Marketing Solutions
403-861-5190
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author only and are not intended to represent financial advice.
Market News
Commodity Fundamentals
Technical Analysis
Canola: November futures. The short term trend is down and the long term trend is down. Further lows possible.
HRS Wheat: December futures. The short term trend is up and the long term trend is down.
Corn: December futures. The short term trend is up and the long term trend is down.
Soybeans: May futures. The long and short term trends are up.
Canadian Dollar: June futures. Long and short term trends are up. Possible short term down move this week.
US Dollar Index: June futures. The short and long term trends are down.
Crude Oil: April futures. Long and short term trends are up.
