Agronomist Notes
Well, seeding officially began last week with a few early birds seeding peas and malt barley. The rest of us looked at the calendar and weather forecast and decided to wait it out. Those with three to six inches of snow on the ground today will be glad they waited. Soil temperatures have dropped roughly five degrees over the past week, varying from 2.5 to 6.5 degrees Celsius. The ten day forecast is calling for lows of -1 to -4 degrees with daytime highs in the low teens. This will make pre-burn applications challenging but not impossible.
The recent cool temperatures and high humidity have forced some producers to shut down seeding because of fertilizer plugging in the air lines. This is a rare occurrence but I do to have a solution that I picked up on my recent travels. Would you believe it’s the Aussie’s who’ve found a way to reduce humidity in air tanks?
This week we’ll look at tips for spraying during cool weather. Next, we’ll look at how to fine tune field selection to help decide which fields to begin seeding based on stubble type and soil temperatures. We’ll look at a very clever design to help reduce the moisture in air tanks and prevent fertilizer plugging. Next, I’ll share a very successful post-harvest spray strategy that will have you planning fall spraying jobs before the seed’s in the ground. We’ll finish the agronomy section with the effects of chilling injury in cereals and how to identify signs of injury. Bruce Love will give us his weekly carbon market update and finally, we’ll finish up with fundamental and technical grain market news. Have a great week.
Agronomy
Tips for spraying during cool weather
Many of us are teetering on whether to seed first and spray later or spray first and wait (painfully) to begin seeding when we’re already delayed. We know the best results come from spraying your burndown herbicide before you begin seeding. Seeding can dislodge or bury weeds and create a dust covering that reduces glyphosate efficacy. On the other hand, if weeds are damaged by frost and won’t take up herbicide, you don’t want to waste time and energy spraying something that simply won’t work. With that, here are a few tips to help you assess frost damage on weeds and consider herbicide options during cool weather.
- First and foremost: read the leaves. Read on for what to look for.
- Second, the majority of weeds we are targeting are quite frost tolerant and can resume growth at temperature below 10 degrees C.
- When scouting, look for green, healthy, perky leaves to be sure leaf tissue is not damaged.
- At least 60% of the leaf area must be green and healthy to allow for herbicide uptake.
- Yellow, pale green or purplish wilted leaves are signs of frost damage.
-
Weeds in order of frost tolerance from highest to lowest:
- Dandelion
- Winter annuals (flixweed, cleavers, narrow-leaved hawksbeard)
- Quackgrass
- Perennial sowthistle
- Canada thistle
- Toadflax
- Annuals (wild buckwheat, kochia, lambsquarters, shepherds purse).
- Switch from straight glyphosate to products like Pre-Pass or Express Pro which offer extended soil activity for up to two weeks.
- If you have no grassy weed growth but still want broadleaf residual control, one could remove the florasulam component from Pre-Pass and top it up with 125 ml to 160 ml/ac of 2,4-D Ester 700. The 2,4-D will heat up the florasulam to help control flixweed and other winter annuals and will offer you up to two weeks of soil activity. This tank mix is the same as Frontline 2,4-D only with 3 less ounces (123 ml) of 2,4-D. Just for the record, I can’t recommend this mixture. SL
Fine tuning field selection through soil temperatures and residue type
Every spring we’re challenged by cold soils and by default we begin seeding in the fields with the least amount of standing water. There is, however, a better way to choose which fields to seed first by comparing soil temperatures across stubble types. The question is not whether you should seed wheat first, but whether you should seed into wheat, pea or canola stubble first. Remember, every time we reduce plant stress, we increase yield potential.
Yesterday I had a chance to measure soil temperatures in three adjacent fields of canola, wheat and pea stubble. All three fields were within fifty feet of each other had 100% residue coverage in the areas I took the soil temperature readings. Typically, you’d find pea stubble warmer than wheat stubble and canola stubble cooler than wheat stubble but what I found was a reversal from the normal. The warmest of the three fields at a one inch depth was the canola stubble at 6.5 degrees, then wheat stubble at 3.5 degrees followed by pea stubble at a surprising 2.5 degrees Celsius. So what does this mean? The four degree difference in soil temperature between the canola stubble and pea stubble is the difference between quick germination and no germination at all!
Strategy: Take soil temperature readings just before seeding this spring to see what fields or stubble types offer the warmest soil temperatures. If for example, you have a choice between seeding wheat into pea or canola stubble then choose the warmer of the two. This will allow the cooler soils to eventually warm up and provide a greater opportunity to speed up germination and emergence.
I use a laser-guided point and shoot thermometer (007 Special Issue. I’d tell you where I bought, but then, well, you know the code.). It takes about three seconds to get a reading. Once again, it may not seem like a big deal now, but a short drive around to measure soil temperature will provide stronger, faster emergence translating into reduced maturity and higher yield potential. SL
Minimum soil temperature for germination |
Ideal temperature for germination |
Wheat: 4 C |
Wheat: 20 C |
Barley: 3 C |
Barley: 20 C |
Canola: 5 C |
Canola: 15 – 20 C |
Peas: 4 C |
Peas: 4 – 24 C |
Source: http://www1.agric.gov.ab.ca/$department/deptdocs.nsf/all/agdex1203
Reducing fertilizer plugging in the air drill during high humidity conditions
A few producers have attempted to start seeding but have had to shut down early because of excessive plugging by fertilizer, namely urea, in the air lines. Pressurizing cold, humid air down a tube containing a moisture absorbing product like urea can lead to condensation buildup and eventually complete line blockages. This occurrence is rare in our country but it seems we’ve fallen on the right conditions this spring.
As we know, cold air holds more moisture than warm air, so the goal of any pressurized air tank system would be to find a constant source of warm air. Well, I found a solution to pressurize your air tank with warm, dry air in of all places, Australia. The Aussie’s begin seeding in late-April and early-May which is the beginning of their cooler and wetter season. Several producers I visited had propane bottles with small flare boxes mounted beside the air intake on the back of their air tank. This inexpensive set up allowed them to continue seeding during periods of cool weather with high humidity, which significantly reduced condensation buildup and fertilizer blockages.
The picture above shows a 200 lb propane bottle mounted to the frame of a DayBreak air tank owned by producer Robert Ruwoldt of Horsham, Vic. You can see he’s built a circular housing and attached it to the intake side of the fan. The torch burns inside a flare box which keeps it far enough away from the fan from doing damage and close enough to provide it with warm air. Not a bad idea, don’t you think? SL
Post-harvest spray strategy successful three years running
One of the biggest challenges during the spring rush is getting your pre-burn timing right. In a perfect world, you would spray your burn-off herbicide the day before seeding when targeting annuals or three days before seeding when targeting perennials. However, we usually sacrifice seeded acres to wait for the herbicide to translocate or sacrifice weed control by seeding too early after our herbicide application. The solution to this challenge is applying a late-September or early-October glyphosate treatment to control dandelions, thistles, narrow-leaved hawksbeard and other winter annuals. For the last three years at a client’s farm near Crossfield, AB, we’ve applied a late-fall treatment of Vantage Plus Max at 750 ml/acre with huge success.
After comparing the fields that didn't get sprayed last fall to the ones that did, the only visible weed at this point is volunteer wheat. I can see flixweed, quackgrass, dandelions and winter cleavers in the fields that didn’t receive a fall treatment. The spraying was done on September 28th, October 2nd, and 4th through the 7th. They shut things down after we felt the weather was too cool to continue. In hindsight, we probably could have kept going but we were already outside of our comfort zone and didn’t want to waste money.
The key to employing this strategy successfully is to be nimble enough have your equipment ready so when the opportunity to spray arises in late-September or early-October, one can act immediately. This farm now has the opportunity to start seeding as soon as the ground dries up.
Tips for applying late-fall glyphosate treatments
- Don't be afraid. Read the leaves.
- You must have covered shed for the sprayer and water truck.
- Have equipment ready and waiting so within an hour you can have the tank full and ready to spray.
- Outside temperature should be at least 8 degrees C during the day.
- Discontinue spraying once night time temperatures fall below -5 degrees C.
- This is a good strategy for wheat stubble that will be seeded to wheat, canola or feed barley.
- Be prepared to live with some volunteer wheat. Malt barley may be an issue in this case but I don’t know many who seed malt barley into wheat stubble anyhow. SL
Chilling injury potential in cereals and oilseeds
As I mentioned in last week’s newsletter, the most stressful condition for germinating seeds is exposure to cold (below 5 degrees C), wet conditions immediately following planting. Those who decided to seed last week before the cool, snowy weather should keep a watchful eye as these crops emerge. The trouble begins as seeds imbibe cold water, which reduces the elasticity of the cellular membranes in the developing seedling. This can cause cell rupture and leakage, making the seed vulnerable to fungal and insect damage. It can also lead to poor seedling vigour, emergence, herbicide tolerance and yield potential.
Once the shoot emerges from the soil, considerable cold tolerance develops in the seedling. This is a function of the plant producing energy via photosynthesis instead of drawing it from the seed. Things to look out for are cork screwed seedlings in some cases, or rotten seeds with a developed but yellowed coleoptile.
I expect most of our early planted fields will emerge fine and do well. If it does remain cool and wet, look to last week’s article on “low and high risk seeding decisions” to find out what strategies you can use to help improve emergence. For those fields that do encounter chilling injury, these problems can be addressed with early scouting, careful diagnosis, and timely replanting. SL
Are Canada and Alberta Hog Tied on GHG Policy?
April 27, 2009 - Alberta’s Green House Gas (GHG) legislation is just about two (2) years old and the Federal Government can’t get its act together to do anything more than watch the USA take a leadership role in creating GHG legislation for itself and potentially the world. How far behind Canada and Alberta are can be seen in our track record on GHG emissions and what’s going on in the USA. This also highlights just how fast our policy options are running out. In fact, it could be argued we have no policy options left other than how we comply with our export customers’ policies with very little room to argue for any special adjustment period.
Recently (April 17, 2009) Canada reported its 2007 GHG emissions under its Kyoto obligations to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the results highlighted how bad Canada was, it’s the worst of the G8 nations. No wonder the Canadian Government made the submission without press release or any other readily available acknowledgments; however, it wasn’t overlooked by our critics. The 673 page report available at ( http://unfccc.int/national_reports/annex_i_ghg_inventories/national_inventories_submissions/items/4771.php ) describes Canada’s 2007 GHG emissions rising 26.2% above 1990 levels to 747 million tonnes. 1990 is an important year, since it is not only the reference year for the Kyoto protocol but also for the proposed US legislation to reduce GHGs. Data in the report show that for almost every year since 1990 to 2007 Canada’s absolute emissions levels have rising steadily while the intensity of those emissions declined. Therefore, Canada’s stated policy position of intensity based reductions in the face of rising absolute reductions can be considered ridiculous; no wonder our trade partners complain about Canada’s interference with meaningful GHG reduction policy. Alberta was treated no better in the report. Alberta was the largest emitting province in Canada making up 33.2% of Canada’s GHG emissions in 2007. Alberta’s 2007 GHG emissions grew by 43.7% over 1990 levels to 245.7 million tonnes in 2007.
Since Canada’s GHG emissions continued to grow rapidly without the constraint of public policy in the area, it should come as no surprise that our trade partners are now taking action and will oblige our exports to meet their standards. The most recent proof of this is regulation under California Bill AB32 that recognizes the carbon footprint of transportation fuels, otherwise known as the “low carbon standard for transportation fuels.” The regulation specifies that starting in 2011; imports of transportation fuels and power into the State of California must have a carbon footprint the same as or lower than domestic production of a comparable product. Then over the next 10 years, this carbon footprint is subject to a ten (10) percent reduction. Exporters to the State can meet this requirement by reducing the carbon footprint of the product, offset with additional product with a carbon footprint below what is required, and potentially with approved carbon credits. This regulation becomes even more important to Canada and Alberta as eleven (11) other US States are considering something similar, and the Obama Administration appears to be endorsing it on a national basis. The impact of this type of regulation on Alberta is obvious given its energy exports to the US. What is even more of a concern is the proposed US climate change legislation which calls for a reduction to 1990 GHG levels by 2020, while Canada stood at 26.2% above those levels in 2007. The US administration has already gone on record that Canada is expected to meet the same targets and timelines or face trade action.
So where does all this leave us? Well, it looks like Canada will have to adopt absolute reductions that meet the same standard as that eventually adopted in the USA. Given the magnitude of the reductions in question, how do we get there? The carbon tax idea has been thrown around, but suffers from acceptability and effectiveness. A tax can be an effective policy tool to change behavior, but lacks the efficiency to result in low cost GHG reductions. Just because you tax something it doesn’t mean that you stop doing it, that only happens when you can’t afford it anymore. A cap-and-trade system alone may get us there by limiting emissions to a fixed amount, but it lacks the flexibility to adjust over the short to medium term. Large Final Emitters (LFEs) will require the time to make the capital investments required to reduce their GHG emissions. The atmosphere does not discriminate between sources of GHG emissions, so the most likely outcome will be the use of GHG offsets, or carbon credits, to provide flexibility to LFEs.
By the looks of things today, we may need all the carbon credits we can get our hands on. However, the quality of the carbon credits must be defendable and meet or exceed the standards set by our trade partners.
Reference: Bruce Love, Preferred Carbon
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author only and are not intended to represent financial advice.
Market News
Fundamental Analysis
World Production in Million Metric Tonnes |
|||||||
Production |
Ending Stocks |
Ending Stocks |
|||||
2007-08 |
Apr-09 |
Change |
2007-08 |
Apr-09 |
Change |
5 Year Avg |
|
Rapeseed |
48.4 |
57.9 |
20% |
3 |
6.3 |
103% |
4.6 |
Barley |
133.2 |
153.8 |
15% |
18 |
30.1 |
66% |
25.7 |
Wheat |
610.6 |
682.0 |
12% |
119 |
158.1 |
33% |
138.6 |
Corn |
792.3 |
786.4 |
-1% |
128 |
143.3 |
12% |
125.9 |
Soybeans |
220.9 |
218.7 |
-1% |
53 |
45.8 |
-14% |
54 |
Technical Indicators
I have set up these weekly updates to include market entry indicators to help you improve the timing of your grain marketing. Also, I added market trend indicators to give you a sense of the short and long term market trends.
Canola – November Futures
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Wheat – December Futures
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Barley – July Futures
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Canadian Dollar – July futures
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International Crop Weather News
England: “Weather here very dry. Six weeks without any significant rain. We are entering a very important month for crop potential. Crops currently look OK, but lighter land will soon start to suffer. Rain also desperately needed for many spring sown crops.” Nick Ward, Lincolnshire, UK
United States: In the West, cool weather has replaced last week’s heat. Nevertheless, cotton planting and other spring fieldwork is proceeding in California and the Southwest. On the Plains, showers and thunderstorms are affecting southern and east-central portions of the region. Markedly cooler air is overspreading the region in the wake of a cold front’s passage, and rain is changing to wet snow across portions of the central High Plains, including northeastern Colorado. In the Corn Belt, showers and cooler conditions are ending a window of opportunity for summer crop planting across areas west of the Mississippi River. However, planting continues at a rapid pace in the eastern Corn Belt, except in areas still too wet from earlier downpours. In the South, warm, dry conditions are promoting fieldwork and rapid crop development, especially from the Delta eastward.
Europe: Dry weather over Poland and northern Germany reduces soil moisture for wheat and rapeseed. Showers favor jointing to heading winter grains over central and Western Europe. In Italy, showers provide supplemental moisture for irrigated winter wheat.
Former Soviet Union: In Ukraine, Belarus, and southern Russia, dry weather aids spring grain planting. In Russia, near-normal temperatures in the north melt most of the remaining snow cover, while unseasonably cold weather in the south slows winter grain development and spring grain emergence. In primary cotton growing areas of Central Asia, cold, wet weather hampers early planting activities.
Southeast Asia: Showers throughout the Philippines aid spring-sown rice and corn. Hot, dry weather increases water requirements for corn in Thailand.
East Asia: Widespread rain in China benefits reproductive winter wheat, rapeseed, and early double-crop rice.
South Asia: Tropical Storm Bijli brings locally heavy rain to southeastern Bangladesh and northeastern India, boosting moisture supplies for rice. However, the storm causes minimal damage and flooding. Dry weather returns to northern India, allowing winter wheat harvesting to resume.
Middle East: Widespread showers maintain favorable conditions for wheat and barley, which has reached the moisture-sensitive heading stage from Syria into southern and central Iran.
North Africa: Widespread showers provide additional soil moisture for heading to filling wheat and barley.
Australia: In most of Queensland and New South Wales, widespread showers slow cotton and sorghum harvesting but help condition top soils for upcoming winter grain planting.
South America: In Argentina, mostly dry, occasionally hot weather hastens maturation and dry down of summer grains, oilseeds, and cotton. Unseasonable warmth and dryness promote soybean harvesting throughout southern Brazil but moisture remains limited for second-crop (safrinha) corn. Scattered showers in central Brazil benefit safrinha corn but delay soybean harvesting.
South Africa: Dry, seasonably mild weather favors maturation of corn and other summer crops, but more rain would be welcome for germination of winter grains.
Canada: Seeding has begun across most of the country. Heavy flooding continues along the Red River Valley. Saskatchewan is off to a good start to seeding but Alberta and Manitoba lag behind. If the weather cooperates, we should see the majority of producers in the west begin seeding within the next seven days.