Agronomist Notes

Another week gone by with very little seeding progress, in fact, zero around Three Hills. The snow has finally melted and some producers have ventured out to seed canola on breaking on Monday afternoon. The rest of us are itching to go Tuesday if field conditions allow. The winter and spring annual weeds are sprouting up quickly with the recent moisture and warm temperatures. Ground temperatures are hovering between 1 and 7 0C.

In this week’s newsletter we’ll dive into pre-burn options for canola and cereals. I’ve made a note of my discoveries while field scouting this week. Please note that I’ve included a correction to the glyphosate salt formulation sheet: Touchdown Total is a potassium-based salt formulation and not a diammonium salt-based formulation like Touchdown IQ. Finally, we’ll finish with market news.

Agronomy

Volunteer Canola to Strike Wheat Fields This Spring
If you’re second guessing whether to spray a pre-seed herbicide on your canola stubble, you may want to think again. I examined a wheat field yesterday that was seeded ten days ago into canola stubble, just before the snow. The ground temperature was 1 0C, the wheat’s germination was roughly 10% complete and the volunteer canola was ready to emerge. The number of volunteer canola that lay just below the surface was staggering! I would have never noticed had I not been digging around.

TIP: When scouting for pre-burn this week, dig below the surface in canola stubble fields to get a good read on how much volunteer canola is germinating and ready to emerge.

YIELD LOSS: If left uncontrolled, 2 plants/ft2 of volunteer canola can reduce wheat yields by 15%.
Source: http://bayercropscience.ca/pests/weeds/broadleaf/volunteer-canola/default.aspx

RECOMMENDATION: If you see more than 2 plants/ft2 of volunteer canola beneath the surface or emerging, apply a residual product like Pre-Pass at a cost of $7.50 acre vs. a 0.5 L/acre glyphosate equivalent rate at $3.25 to $4.00/acre. You will only need to increase yield by one bushel per acre at $7.00 wheat to provide a 2:1 return on your investment.

Pre-Seed Option for Canola
CleanStart SRP $7.20/acre
Until now, the only option for pre-seed burnoff before canola was glyphosate. Today NuFarm offers a second option with a product called CleanStart. This product offers both a contact and systemic mode of action. The glyphosate provides systemic control while the carfentrazone (Group 14) provides control on contact. With that being said, contact herbicides require higher water volumes to provide consistent control so bumping your water volume to 7.5 or 10 gallons per acre is a good idea.

CleanStart is a fit for fields with volunteer canola, winter annuals, chickweed, kochia and dandelions less than 4 inches across. For $7.20/acre I may use it on fields that have a history of kochia. It’s registered for use before seeding canola, cereals, peas, lentils, flax and mustard.  
To find out more: http://www.nufarm.com/CA/CleanStartCleanStartPlus

Glyphosate SRP $7.25 to $11.90/L
The old saying is true: the best way to heat up glyphosate is to add more glyphosate. For those looking for pre-burn options in canola, it’s a proven strategy. The cost of CleanStart is roughly $1.80 acre more than a 500 ml/acre rate of RoundUp Ultra2 or a 750 ml/acre rate of Touchdown IQ when you’re tackling large weeds greater than 4 inches tall. Is the additional $1.80 worth the investment for CleanStart? I like the new herbicide group, I like that it’s tougher on kochia, round leaf mallow and even dandelion but perhaps I’ll stick to a 1 L/acre rate of Touchdown IQ at the same cost and catch my grasses like foxtail barley and quackgrass. SL

For more information on specific weeds and glyphosate rates, refer to the Monsanto website at http://www.monsanto.ca/weed_control/product_use/preseed.asp

Control Winter Annuals Before You Seed
Research from the University of Nebraska shows that winter annuals can use three inches of soil moisture in 30 days. Thirty days growth is easy to accomplish if you wait to control winter annuals in-crop. We typically spray in-crop 30 to 40 days after seeding which gives more than enough time for weeds to rob yield. Don’t get caught this spring! The research is supported by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada at Lethbridge where early control of winter annuals saved between 8 to 11 per cent soil moisture.

A comprehensive report on winter annual control in direct seeding systems was published by Reduced Tillage Linkages in 2005. If you would like to see pre-seed herbicide options for winter annuals click here [http://www.soilcc.ca/ggmp_fact_sheets/pdf/Winter%20Annual%20Factsheet%20Aug%2029%202005.PDF].

Pre-burn Options Before Cereals
Express SG + ½ L Glyphosate SRP $3.20 + $3.75 = $6.95/acre
Express was designed to improve glyphosate performance on tough weeds like dandelion, narrow-leaved hawksbeard, flixweed and volunteer RR canola. The product works extremely well on tough broadleaves mentioned above but unfortunately leaves very little residue to control flushing weeds. The product is $0.50 less expensive than Pre-Pass and $0.25 less than a litre of Touchdown IQ. I like to use this combination when I know the weeds have sufficiently emerged and hawksbeard, dandelion and RR canola are my targets. Express SG has also been registered for pre-burn applications before peas, fababeans and lupins.
Reference: DuPont Canada http://www.dupont.ca/ag/product/index.cfm?inylangid=1&CropSection=Cereals&ItemID=347

Pre-Pass SRP $7.50/acre
PrePass is a new generation grass and broadleaf pre-seed burndown herbicide for use prior to seeding wheat, barley or oats. The 0.5L/acre of Vantage Plus (glyphosate) is accompanied by florasulam which allows extended broadleaf weed control up to 90% for up to 14 days following application. Its strengths, compared to glyphosate alone, are control of all types of volunteer canola including Roundup Ready canola, improved control of wild buckwheat, dandelion, narrow-leaved hawk's beard, cleavers, sheppard's purse and stinkweed. It’s a great fit with wheat going into canola stubble.

In spring, this product can be sprayed as a pre-seed or sprayed up to 48 hours post seeding. It reduces overall weed pressure and later emerging weeds are smaller and more uniform in growth stage by the time an in-crop treatment occurs. PrePass compared to Express SG will deliver cleaner fields for a longer period of time, over a broader range of broadleaf weeds.
Source: Dow AgroSciences

Updated List of Glyphosate Brands – Understanding Salt Formulations is Key
In the world of glyphosate today, there are three types of salt formulations you should remember: isopropylamine salt (Vantage Plus Max), potassium salt (Roundup WeatherMax) and diammonium salt (Touchdown IQ). These three should never meet if you prefer a trouble-free spray application.

Isopropylamine Salt
Glyphos
Vantage Plus Max
PrePass
Factor
Cleanstart
Maverick II
Cheminova
Credit
ClearOut 41 Plus
Sharpshooter
Sharpshooter Plus

Potassium Salt
RoundUp WeatherMax
RoundUp Transorb HC
RoundUp Ultra2
Renegade HC
Touchdown Total
Factor 540
R/T 540

Diammonium Salt
Touchdown IQ

Market News

Commodity Index Funds Activity

La Nina to Bring Warm Dry Conditions over Prairies
According to weather source Ray Garnett, he predicts a warmer and drier June to July period over the Canadian Prairies. The soil moisture conditions are rated as good in Manitoba but progressively get drier into Saskatchewan and Alberta. The drier and warmer weather is a direct result of the La Nina conditions hanging over the central and east Pacific Ocean.  The blue area in the Pacific indicates cooler ocean temperatures or what’s known as the La Nina effect. Cool ocean breezes off the ocean hold very little moisture as it moves its way inland. SL 
Source: Ray Garnett

World Weather Update
China has received well above average precipitation throughout its winter wheat belt, which is now in the vegetative stage. Crop conditions are rated as good to excellent. As well, many parts of the EU have received well above average precipitation and some areas are considered to be excessive. The prediction is for many parts of the EU to be excessively wet in 2008 thus impacting yields of wheat, barley and canola. We are now into the critical April-May growing season for US winter wheat. Crop conditions are rated only as fair. SL    

2008-09 Wheat PRO Drops On Improved Production Prospects
The CWB released its latest monthly Pool Return Outlook (PRO) for the 2008-09 crop year on Friday. Milling wheat PROs are $18 to $25 per tonne lower than the March PRO for the new crop year, primarily due to improved international crop prospects. Milling durum values have decreased by $20 per tonne. Projections for feed barley Pool A returns remain unchanged from last month, while designated barley values have been reduced by $6 per tonne.

April CWB PRO: http://www.cwb.ca/dom/db/contracts/pool_return/pro.nsf/WebPRPub/2008_20080424.html?OpenDocument&CropYr=2008-09

Will Canada’s Grains & Oilseeds Sector Benefit from China’s Rising Demand
Grains, oilseeds, pulse crops, and canola oil have been key Canadian agri-food exports to China during the past ten years, but some of these exports are in decline. Canadian wheat exports to China, for example, have decreased significantly and this is largely due to increased domestic production. As well, higher prices for malting barley and the use of substitutes, such as corn and rice, in beer production have contributed to a decline in exports of Canadian malting barley to China.

In the case of oilseeds, China’s tariff structure puts Canadian canola at a distinct disadvantage over imports of soybeans from the U.S. and Brazil. China’s bound and applied tariff rate for canola seed, canola oil, and soybean oil is 9%, whereas the bound tariff rate for soybeans is 3%. Furthermore, China has temporarily reduced the applied tariff on soybeans to 1%.

The exception to a general decline of Canadian agri-food exports to China is peas, which continue to demonstrate good growth potential in the food market and as feed for China’s growing aquaculture sector. Canada is also considering the potential of other agri-food products as China continues to experience unprecedented economic growth and with that, a higher standard of living. With this higher standard of living, China’s burgeoning middle class is developing a taste for livestock products and higher value food that were once considered scarce and unaffordable. However, the value of the Canadian dollar will continue to play an important role in influencing trade with China.

Full report: http://www.agr.gc.ca/pol/mad-dam/index_e.php?s1=pubs&s2=bi#v21

Case Studies Provide Ideas for Farm Succession Planning and Expansion
Are you thinking about succession planning or expanding your mixed or straight grain farm? Would you like to know what these plans look like? The link below offers a number of case studies to illustrate common situations in the industry starting with an initial assessment, alternate scenarios, and lastly comparing all results in a comparison chart.

Full reports: http://www1.agric.gov.ab.ca/$department/deptdocs.nsf/all/bmi12093

Stats Can Price Forecast for 2008

Green and Yellow Pea Prices to Decline. For 2008-09, production is forecast to rise to a record 3.1 Mt, due to record seeded area and higher yields.  Supply is expected to increase marginally, as lower carry-in stocks partially offset the increase in production. The increase in production is expected to be for the yellow type, while production of green and other types remains stable. World supply is forecast to increase slightly, to over 10 Mt, due to expected increases in Canada, the EU and the FSU. Canadian exports and domestic use are expected to increase marginally, in line with the larger supply. Carry-out stocks are forecast to rise. The average price, over all types, grades and markets, is expected to be the slightly lower in 2008-09, due to the expected increase in world and Canadian supply.

Spring Wheat Prices to Decrease. Seeded area is expected to increase by 14%, with a 65% increase for winter wheat and a 9% increase for spring wheat. Production is forecast to increase by 26% but lower carry-in stocks will limit the increase in supply to 10%. Domestic use and exports are forecast to increase due to the higher supply and strong demand. Carry-out stocks are forecast to increase from the very low 2007-08 level. The CWB PRO is lower than 2007-08 and the discounts for lower quality wheat are projected to increase.

Feed Barley Prices to Increase. Seeded area is expected to decrease by 14%. Production is forecast to decrease by only 5%. Total supply is expected to fall by 6% due to lower carry-in stocks. Total domestic use is forecast to fall by 2%, to the lowest level since 2002-03, due to a forecasted drop in feed, waste and dockage. Feed barley exports are forecast to fall due to increased competition from Australia and the EU. Carry-out stocks are forecast to decline and set a modern day record low. The off-Board price of feed barley is forecast to increase slightly compared to 2007-08. The CWB April PRO for Feed Barley Pool A is $235/t vs. $269/t for 2007/08 and the PRO for Special Select two-row designated barley is $354/t vs. $290/t for 2007-08.

Canola Prices to Increase. Area seeded is expected to increase marginally, while production is forecast to rise by 9% due to higher yields. Total supply is expected to decrease marginally due to lower carry-in stocks. Exports and domestic crush are forecast to remain high on support from strong world food and biofuel demand. Carry-out stocks are forecast to fall significantly. Average canola prices in Canada are expected to increase from 2007-08.
Source: STATS Canada