Agronomist Notes

I’m two-thirds through my pre-seeding visits and it looks like we’re all starting to get a little itchy to pull out the drills, even though some are still buried under four feet of snow. I had a client hook on to his air drill and pull it out of the shop so his contractor could finish insulating. He happens to live by a main highway and boy, did that get the neighbors in a stir! Thankfully, the forecast calls for warmer weather and the snow should disappear rapidly. With roughly two feet of frost in the ground, one or two spring showers is all it’ll take and we’re away.

Most producers purchased their glyphosate over winter but the word on the street is that glyphosate prices may soften into the summer. Recently, I’ve been quoted $9.00 to $12.45 (per litre equivalent) for generic glyphosate and $9.50 to $11.30 (per litre equivalent) for premium glyphosate. For those who’ve got three brands of glyphosate in the shed, your task will be to determine whether Vantage Plus Max II mixes with Maverick III or Roundup Ultra2 and can you top up your Pre-Pass with any of the three? Insert grin here.

This week we’ll look at pre-seed herbicide options in cereals and oilseeds. Next, we’ll look at the cost saving involved with improved germination and seedling emergence. Bruce Love of Preferred Carbon will give us a recap of the Alberta Carbon offset market to date. Finally, we’ll finish with a new and improved fundamental and grain market news format and international crop and weather news.      

Picture: Neufeld Farms, of Acme AB, seeding barley in May 2008 using VRT fertilizer on canola stubble.

Agronomy

2009 pre-seed herbicide options & resistance warning

The list below provides a number of options for pre-seed weed control in cereals and oilseeds. Going into spring, our biggest concern will be dandelions, among the usual winter annual suspects. One comment I’ll make here is that I’m starting to pay more attention to the use of Group 2’s in our herbicide rotations. Pre-Pass, Express and Express Pro tank mixes provide additional control of tougher broadleaf weeds like dandelion, narrow-leaved hawksbeard, cleavers, thistles and buckwheat but they all contain Group 2 chemistry. Group 2’s are part of an ever increasing line up of herbicide resistant weeds. To date, in Alberta, we have Group 2 resistant cleavers, chickweed, annual sow-thistle and stinkweed. I encourage you to scout your fields and be aware of weed escapes so you don’t develop resistance. Don’t be afraid to include group 4’s, 6’s and 14’s in your pre-seed burn-off as part of your herbicide resistance program.    

The price and rate of glyphosate is based on 500 ml/ac equivalent @ $13.43 per litre.

Glyphosate: $4.50/ac
Crops: All crops
Target weeds: stinkweed, wild mustard, volunteer Liberty Link & Clearfield canola, flixweed <3” tall, shepherd’s-purse, volunteer wheat, barley and wild oats 3-leaf or less

Glyphosate & 200 ml/ac 2,4-D Ester LV 700: $6.50/ac 
Crops: wheat, barley, rye
Target weeds: Over and above glyphosate only: flixweed <6” tall, volunteer canola, wild buckwheat and kochia <2” tall

Glyphosate & 200 ml/ac Buctril M: $7.80/ac
Crops: All cereals, corn, flax, forage grasses
Target weeds: Over and above glyphosate only: improved wild buckwheat control and Roundup Ready canola

Glyphosate & Express SG: $7.90/ac
Crops: All cereals
Target weeds: Over and above glyphosate only: Roundup Ready canola, narrow-leaved hawksbeard, wild buckwheat and dandelion <6” across

Glyphosate & Express Pro: $8.48/ac NEW
Crops: Wheat and barley
Target weeds: Over and above glyphosate + Express SG: Improved toadflax and dandelion <6” across control with 15 days of residual activity on dandelion, narrow-leaved hawk’s-beard and volunteer canola

PrePass: $9.00/ac
Crops: Wheat and barley
Target weeds: Over and above glyphosate: Improved winter annual cleavers, flixweed, narrow-leaved hawksbeard and dandelion <6” across control. Two weeks of residual activity on volunteer canola, flixweed, shepherd’s-purse, narrow-leafed hawks-beard, stinkweed, wild buckwheat.

CleanStart: $8.25/ac
Crops: Canola, peas, flax, lentils, mustard
Target weeds: Over and above glyphosate: kochia, flixweed, volunteer canola up to 3 leaf, seedling dandelion and narrow-leaved hawksbeard

Steve’s notes:
I’ve been a big fan of Pre-Pass on canola stubble to control flushing RR & LL canola and wild buckwheat. Express Pro from DuPont offers another solution for extended control of dandelion, LL & RR canola with a little extra heat on toadflax. I’ve seen results from both products and find them very comparable.

When using CleanStart or glyphosate + Buctril M, be sure to keep your water rates up to 7.5 gallons/ac to ensure adequate coverage. Buctril M and the carfentrazone component of CleanStart are contact herbicides that work better with increased spray volume. Also, to ensure optimum activity, avoid spraying these products during cold mornings and ideally, the warmer the temperature the better. Both products offer a none-Group 2 based herbicide to combat against Group 2 resistance.      

Improving seedling emergence, the other side of the equation

Last week I discussed the return on investment we could expect through improved seeding depth and emergence. I discovered that we could generate an additional $16,800 per year on a 4,000 acre farm by switching to a precision drill with on-row depth control. The other side of the story is the cost savings you can achieve through improved germination and emergence. I know that we generate more yield and revenue, but what kind of cost saving can you achieve with a precision drill?

Let’s run the numbers using the JD 1830 vs the JD 1870 comparing the effects of a 7% gain in germination and emergence. 

The examples below are based on improving germination and emergence by 7%, a realistic target with a switch to a precision drill. Wheat price is $6.00 a bushel, seed treatment is $2.40 a bushel and canola seed is $7.00 a pound. 

Seeding rate calculation
Seeding rate (lb/ac) = desired plant population/ft² × 1,000 K wt. (g) ÷ seedling survival rate (in decimal form such as 0.90) ÷ 10.4

Wheat Example:
JD 1830 Seeding rate: 30 ft2 x 35 grams ÷ 85% (baseline emergence) ÷ 10.4 = 118 lbs/ac
JD 1870 Seeding rate: 30 ft2 x 35 grams ÷ 92% (7% improved emergence) ÷ 10.4 = 109 lbs/ac

Canola Example:
JD 1830 Seeding rate: 10 ft2 x 3 grams ÷ 45% (baseline emergence) ÷ 10.4 = 6.4 lbs/ac
JD 1870 Seeding rate: 10 ft2 x 3 grams ÷ 52% (7% improved emergence) ÷ 10.4 = 5.5 lbs/ac

So, in this example you could drop your wheat seeding rate by 7.5% using the JD 1870 and your canola seeding rate by 14%. That’s a savings of $1.41 per acre in seed and seed treatment for wheat and $5.60 an acre for canola. Theoretically, a 4,000 acre farm seeding 3,000 acres of wheat and 1,000 acres of canola could save $9,830 a year by improving seedling emergence by just 7%. Add the $34,300 gained through a 7% improvement in emergence calculated in last week’s article and we stand to gain $44,.130 per year by switching from a conventional drill to one with precision on-row depth. SL

For more information on the various precision drills on the market, click on Beyond Agronomy News, November 20th, 2007 edition: http://www.beyondagronomy.com/newsletter/20_11_2007.htm

The 2008 Alberta GHG Compliance Year

April 6, 2009- The true up period for the Alberta 2008 GHG compliance year ended on March 31, 2009, its second compliance period since the Specified Gas Emitters Regulation (SGER) was created. The first year, 2007, was actually only six (6) months since the SGER came into force on July 1, 2007. Related to this, Alberta Environment is completing an audit of all GHG offset projects registered on the Alberta Emissions Offset Registry and submitted for the 2007 compliance year. The past year (2008) saw a significant increase in both the number of Green House Gas (GHG) offset projects and Large Final Emitters (LFEs) using GHG offsets to help meet their compliance needs1.

Alberta Environment is conducting an audit of the GHG offsets submitted for the 2007 compliance year. During this period seven (7) registered GHG offset projects created 1,555,913 tonnes of Carbon Dioxide Equivalent (CO2e), with 980,338 tonnes from the projects submitted by LFEs as part of their 2007 compliance requirement. Three (3) of the projects where from agriculture and all tillage based. These tillage based offsets produced 557,590 tonnes of CO2e and 201,086 tonnes of them, or 36%, were submitted by LFEs. From preliminary audit results, one project has been identified as a concern by Alberta Environment and they have declared the Emissions Credits Corporation Tillage Program “Project on Hold Pending Further Alberta Environment Audit Results.”2 This affects 87,651 tonnes of CO2e submitted in the 2007 compliance year and the balance of the project, or 329,955 tonnes of CO2e.  Therefore, these figures are removed from the remainder of the analysis and discussion until Alberta Environment removes the hold.

Activity picked up considerably in the 2008 compliance year with twenty five (25) additional GHG offset projects being created, verified, and placed on the registry with all or portions of the GHG offsets being submitted by LFEs for compliance. Ten (10) of the projects were from agriculture and like the previous year, all were tillage based. Total GHG offsets created equaled 3,406,728 tonnes of CO2e across all projects of which 2,538,616 tonnes was submitted by LFEs for 2008 compliance. Within these totals the agricultural offsets (tillage) accounted for 1,000,976 tonnes of which 802,058 tonnes was submitted by LFEs for 2008 compliance.

Overall, there are still 1,099,423 tonnes of CO2e remaining from projects developed in 2007 and 2008. This represents approximately 22% of all offset tonnage from all registered projects. To place this in perspective, LFE compliance demand for the 2008 compliance year is estimated by Preferred Carbon to be between 10 and 11 million tonnes of CO2e. So as we can see there is significant room to grow supply, and the carry over tonnage may have little impact on prices given the demand created by current regulations. What is surprising is the relatively high level of carryout given the motivation to use them for compliance (to reduce costs, interest expenses, etc). Alternatively, this level of inventory could reflect positions being carried forward in anticipation of higher GHG offset prices.

Some other interesting observations from the past year include the following:

• A significant increase in the number and variety of GHG offset projects. For example, this included biomass, methane capture, aerobic composting, landfill gas capture and destruction, CO2 capture and enhanced oil recovery, energy efficiency, and acid injection.
• A significant increase in the firms using agricultural offsets (all tillage based). For the 2007 compliance year it was TransAlta and Epcor, but they were joined by Nova Chemicals, Lafarge Canada, Apache Canada, City of Medicine Hat, ConocoPhillips Canada, and Suncor in 2008.
• In 2008 there was a distinct shift higher in the number and volume of compliance based CO2e created by non-ag projects. This may reduce the arguments made by some critics that tillage based offsets would flood the market and diminish the opportunities for other more “additional” projects.
• The 2008 compliance year under the Alberta scheme to reduce GHGs saw continued growth and greater acceptance of GHG offsets as an integral part of the solution. Looking ahead, it would appear that the market is now starting to fully embrace tillage offsets as a viable compliance option for LFEs. The outcome of the Alberta Environment audit of ECC’s tillage based project in 2007 may yield some interesting observations, while also demonstrating the Alberta Government’s determination to maintain creditability in the offset system.

Bruce Love, Preferred Carbon

¹ All figures are derived from the Alberta Emissions (GHG) Offset Registry as of April 3, 2009 and are subject to change.
² As seen on the Alberta Emissions (GHG) Offset Registry

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author only and are not intended to represent financial advice.

Market News

Fundamental Analysis

World Production in Million Metric Tonnes

	Production			Ending Stocks			Ending Stocks
	2007-08	Mar-09	Change	2007-08	Mar-09	Change	5 Year Avg
Rapeseed	48.4	57.5	19%	3	6.1	97%	4.6
Barley	133.2	154.5	16%	18	29.5	63%	25.7
Wheat	610.6	684.4	12%	119	155.9	31%	138.6
Corn	792.3	787.1	-1%	128	144.6	13%	125.9
Soybeans	220.9	223.3	1%	53	49.9	-6%	54

Updated USDA report March 11th, 2009.

Technical Indicators

I have set up these weekly updates to include market entry indicators to help you improve the timing of your grain marketing. Also, I added market trend indicators to give you a sense of the short and long term market trends.

Canola – November Futures

Wheat – December Futures
Insert chart

Barley – July Futures
Insert chart

Canadian Dollar – September futures
Insert chart

International Crop Weather News

England: “The weather here has been very dry, especially in the east. There is more unsettled weather forecast over the next week. Soil moisture levels are relatively low for this early point in the growing season. A prolonged dry period will severely test some of the poorly established crops.” Nick Ward, UK

United States: In the West, chilly conditions linger across the central and southern Rockies, but warm, dry weather elsewhere in the region favors fieldwork and rapid crop development. On the Plains, cold, dry weather prevails. Flooding continues to affect portions of the north-central U.S., while producers on the central and southern High Plains are monitoring the effects of recent and ongoing freezes on jointing winter wheat. This morning’s low temperatures dipped into the 20- to 25-degree F range as far south as northern Texas and western Oklahoma. In the Corn Belt, rain and snow showers linger across eastern portions of the region, while cold, breezy weather prevails elsewhere in the Midwest. Fieldwork largely remains on hold due to cool, wet soils. In the South, drier, much cooler air is arriving, although soggy soils continue to hamper spring fieldwork in many areas. Warm, humid conditions linger, however, along the Atlantic Seaboard, excluding parched southern Florida.

Europe: Wet weather in central and eastern Europe hampers small grain and sugarbeet planting but maintains favorable soil moisture for winter wheat and rapeseed. Freezes in Poland and the Baltics keep winter grains and oilseeds mostly dormant.

Former Soviet Union: Cool, wet weather in Ukraine keeps winter grains dormant and slows early spring fieldwork. Unseasonably mild weather in the Russian Southern District prompts some greening of winter grains. Daytime temperatures rise above freezing across northern Russia, gradually melting snow cover.

Southeast Asia: Showers benefit oil palm across Malaysia and Indonesia. Drier weather aids fieldwork for rice and corn in the Philippines.

East Asia: Mild weather continues to favor winter wheat greening across the North China Plain. Warm, wet weather aids winter rapeseed and spring corn in the Yangtze Valley as well as early doublecrop rice in the south.

South Asia: Strong thunderstorms in northern portions of India and Pakistan slow fieldwork and cause localized lodging to unharvested wheat and rapeseed. Showers in northeastern India ease short-term dryness and provide moisture for rice.

Middle East: Locally heavy showers in Turkey and Syria maintain favorable conditions for vegetative winter grains. Locally heavy rain in southern and central Iran provides much-needed recharge to irrigation supplies for winter grains.

North Africa: Widespread showers maintain ideal conditions for heading to filling wheat and barley.

Australia: In eastern Australia, dry weather continues a pattern of below-normal March rainfall, favoring summer crop maturation and harvesting.

South America: Warm, dry weather limits moisture for second-crop soybeans over much of central Argentina but conditions favour dry down and harvesting of earlier planted summer grains and oilseeds. Rain benefits immature soybeans and cotton in parts of the north. In southern Brazil, warmth and dryness aid dry down and harvesting of soybeans but more rain is needed for second-crop (safrinha) corn. Seasonal rains continue throughout central Brazil and the northeastern interior, maintaining favorable moisture for second-crop corn.

South Africa: Dry, seasonably warm weather fosters development of corn and other filling to maturing summer crops.

Canada: Seeding commences in mid-April in Southern regions and early-May in Northern regions.