Agronomist Notes

Another week of cooler weather has gone by and many producers had 1.5 to 5 inches of rain in the last four days. This will add a lot of bushel weight to later crops and will add significant sub soil moisture for next year in mature crops. I have just begun my pre-harvest field scouting for cereals and swath timing for canola this week. I predict maybe 10% of the canola fields out there may be ready for swathing in the next seven days. I do see a lot of late tillers in wheat and barley fields that will have to be dealt with by swathing or glyphosate.

With an average at best crop ahead of us, we’re going to have to be prudent to spend money as always, where it counts. The 2009-10 PRO from the CWB for No.1, 13.5 is $5.74 a bushel which brings most producers into the $200 to $240 an acre range; the breakeven mark for most. Hopefully, most producers expensed last year’s costly inputs against the bumper 2008 crop.

In this week’s newsletter we’ll discuss how to decide when to straight cut canola as the window is closing on making the call. Next, we’ll look at research on pre-harvest timing in cereals. We’ll get a touch scientific and look at how to visually identify when cereals reach their physiological maturity. I’ve included a handy guide to help you assess whether you should have sprayed a fungicide this year to sharpen your decision making for disease control. Last, I’ll run the numbers on baling straw to see if it makes sense this year. Bruce Love of Preferred Carbon will talk about improving data accuracy for quality carbon credits and we’ll end with market news. Have a great week.

Agronomy

Crop Staging Area (Calgary to Drumheller to Three Hills) as of August 18.

Date Seeded:	April 23-31	May 1-7	May 8-15
Wheat	hard dough	medium dough	medium dough
Canola	seed colour change	late pod fill	mid pod fill
Barley	hard dough	medium dough	medium dough
Peas	seed colour change	late pod fill	mid pod-fill

This Week in Scouting

• Continue scouting for lygus bugs and diamond back moths in canola.
• Check cereal crops for late tillers to determine whether to dessicate or swath.
• Begin swath timing early seeded canola fields or decide which fields can be straight cut.
• Analyze disease damage in cereals to determine if untreated fields warranted a fungicide.

To straight cut or swath, that is the question.

With so many “vertically challenged” canola fields out there, producers are cringing at the thought of cutting their canola short and leaving very little stubble to anchor the swaths. The obvious question becomes, do I leave it to straight cut? Unfortunately, with the high degree of variability in maturity from issues dating back to spring emergence, most fields are terrible candidates for straight cutting. In my opinion, only those who have canola ready to swath in the next seven days could be candidates for straight cutting.

Here’s a checklist I’ve adapted from the Canola Council of Canada to help you make the decision to straight cut canola:

Time of year – You should be making the decision whether to swath or straight cut within the first two weeks of August. If the crop maturity has you asking this question in the last two weeks of August, the risk of the crop maturing under cooler August-September weather may be too high. Cooler nights and shorter days can really slow down crop maturity and push your harvest window out to mid-October.

Crop canopy – The crop should be well knitted and slightly lodged to reduce the chance of pod shelling and pod drop. Remember that pod integrity can be affected by frost, drought and weathering caused by dry/wet conditions.

Uniform maturity – The crop should be relatively uniform to ensure over-ripe areas do not weather and shell before the rest of the crop is ready to harvest.

Disease – The crop should be relatively free from diseases including blackleg, fusarium wilt, sclerotinia and alternaria. These diseases can cause premature ripening, which can in turn cause pod shattering.

Hail – Crops affected by hail are poor candidates for straight cutting due to the probability of greater disease infection through damaged tissue and reduced pod integrity from physical damage. Also, any late season hail often causes greater levels of damage to standing crops than swathed crops.

Number of acres – Straight combining can be a finicky process with respect to threshing dry grain because the canola stems and pods can still be green and tough. This can slow down harvest efficiencies tremendously bringing you down to 3 mph. If you have a large number of acres to cover, and you seeded those acres in a short time span, I would suggest allocating only a portion to straight cutting. SL

To learn more about straight combining, go to the Canola Growers Manual online: http://www.canola-council.org/contents11.aspx. 

Reference: Canola Council of Canada

Pre-harvest glyphosate in wheat

Canadian research showed that glyphosate applied to wheat with seed moisture content above 25% slightly improved the dry down of both the seed and foliage when compared to leaving a standing crop. The authors found that the small differences in the dry-down required 10 to 15 days to become expressed, and warmer or drier conditions tended to make the differences in dry-down between treated and untreated disappear.

The maximum benefit of glyphosate as a desiccant was observed when seed moisture content was above 40%. This was well before the wheat crop reached physiological maturity and consequently the authors reported yield losses and high residue levels of glyphosate in the harvested seed. When seed moisture content dropped below 40%, the glyphosate applications caused little or no yield losses and little to no differences in kernel weight, test weight, grain protein, or germination.

So what does this mean? Given the stated label restrictions, do not expect miracles of glyphosate as a desiccant. The impact on dry-down may not be as much as you would expect and the difference in dry-down rates are likely to completely disappear when weather conditions are hot and dry, favoring natural dry -down.

Source: http://www.smallgrains.org/springwh/Apr05/classroom/classroom.htm

Knowing when wheat has finished filling

How do you know when wheat has reached physiological maturity and finished the filling stage? At physiological maturity, the maximum amount of dry matter or filling has now accumulated in the kernels. The loss of green in the peduncle is a very useful marker to aid in the correct timing of pre-harvest use of glyphosate. The peduncle is the upper internode of the stem that carries the spike. It has a characteristic bend just below the spike. It is this bend that will lose the green colour first, signalling that the vascular system no longer communicates to the head and that physiological maturity has been reached.

Source: http://www.smallgrains.org/springwh/Apr05/classroom/classroom.htm

Irish break Guinness World Record for Fastest Harvest

A world record 140 combines harvested 140 acres in just fifteen minutes in Platin, Duleek, Co. Meath, Ireland. I think I may give them a call to see what they charge. Mitch and I could be done harvest in 68 minutes at that rate! SL

Full story: http://www.fwi.co.uk/Articles/2009/08/17/117198/combining-world-record-broken-in-ireland.html

Estimating loss from crop diseases after the fact

By now we’ve made the decision to spray or not to spray for leaf diseases in cereals. We are quickly approaching the point to which you can actually estimate whether your decisions were correct or, sadly, not.

To estimate yield loss from net blotch, scald, tan spot or septoria, examine the crop at the milky dough stage. Assess at least 25 main stems in four areas off the head. Then assess the average percentage of the top two leaves affected. The calculation for percent yield loss is (0.66 × percentage of flag leaf infected) + (0.5 × percentage of second leaf infected) ÷ 2.

Let’s work through an example:
You find disease present in wheat on 10% of the flag leaf and 20% on the leaf below.

Percent yield loss in wheat/malt barley = (0.66 x 10) + (0.5 x 20) ÷ 2 = 8.3%

Therefore, your calculated yield loss is 8.3% in both wheat and malt barley. At $6.00/bu wheat and $4.80/bu malt barley with a yield potential of 40 bu/ac and 65 bu/ac respectively, you have lost 3.3 bu/ac in wheat and 5.4 bu/ac in malt barley. That loss translates to $19.80/ac for wheat and $21.60/ac for malt barley.

The cost of a fungicide including application is roughly $14.25/ac for a product like Tilt or Stratego. So, the return on your fungicide investment in wheat would have been 39% [($19.80/ac - $14.25) ÷ $14.25 x 100]. The return on your investment in malt barley would have been 51% [($21.60/ac - $14.25) ÷ $14.25 x 100]. In this scenario I don’t feel the return on investment is significant enough. If your decision was not to spray, then relax, you made a good call. Happy scouting. SL

Is baling and selling straw a wise investment in 2009?

With many producers looking at average crops, some are looking to boost revenue potential by baling and selling the straw. Now, I’m not a fan of removing straw from the field but I am a fan of profit and sometimes it does make sense to bale and sell the straw when the market is riding high. Many grain farmers don’t have baling equipment so it must be hired out and trucked away, which is how I set up the example for crunching the numbers below. I will include the value of nutrients removed and include custom rates of baling and hauling to see what makes sense.

Steve’s quick math
On average, a tonne of wheat (36 bu/ac) will yield a tonne of straw (2,200 lbs). The present value of fertilizer today is roughly $0.36 lb for urea, $0.32 lb for phosphate, $0.48 for potash and $0.35 lb for sulphur. 

Nutrient content in 2,200 lbs of barley straw: 14.5 lbs N, 4.5 lbs P, 37 lbs K, 1.1 lbs S
Cost of nutrients per tonne: $24.55

Nutrient content in 2,200 lbs of wheat straw: 19 lbs N, 4.5 lbs P, 40 lbs K, 3.3 lbs S
Cost of nutrients per tonne: $28.35

Baling rates
Custom baling: $15.00 per bale net wrapped or twine
Loading bales: $2.35 per bale for self loading truck

The value of wheat or barley straw in today’s market is around $0.027 lb ($60/tonne). If we begin by looking at the exportable nutrient content in wheat and barley straw, it would be cheaper to sell barley straw versus wheat as fewer nutrients are exported in barley. For example, a 1,000 lb bale of wheat straw would export $12.85 in nutrients versus a 1,000 lb bale of barley straw at $11.13.

Next, the cost of producing a round bale at today’s price is roughly $15.00 a bale to have someone custom bale it and $2.35 a bale to have it hauled off the field. In total, it would cost you approximately $17.35 per bale to have it done. At a price of $0.027 lb or $60 a tonne, that’s a handy profit of $9.54 per 1,000 lb bale or $21.20 per tonne. However, that doesn’t include the cost of nutrients removed in the straw. If you include the value of nutrients removed from the field, you’re looking at a loss of -$3.20 per 1,000 lb bale for wheat straw and -$1.48 per bale for barley straw.

In the end, if you ignore the cost of exporting nutrients, most average wheat and barley crops could add another $21.20 net per acre from straw sales. If you see value in that, I’ll leave the rest up to you. SL

Carbon Market News

Carbon credits and the accuracy of your data

August 17, 2009- The need for accurate and reliable data in the carbon credit or greenhouse gas (GHG) offset world can’t be overstated. In our opinion it is often overlooked in the farm community just how important accurate data is. Not only is it a vital part of any good management practice, it also has a growing role to play in the carbon credit market.

Unfortunately the current Alberta Tillage System Management protocol used to create GHG offsets from no-till and reduced tillage practices may have sent the wrong message to the very sector it applies to. The need for accurate data has not been as well represented in this protocol as in it in others and proposed new ones. The data requirements of this protocol are considerably less than what’s required in the other accepted GHG protocols. Does this mean it’s a “bad” protocol? No, not at all, we just think it can be improved.

Let’s compare the generally required data in the current tillage management protocol to a renewable energy project. The tillage protocol requires a statement from the farmer on the seeded acreage, what was grown, ownership status of the lands in question, and a description of the equipment used. A renewable energy project on the other hand requires detailed records including metered energy production, independent calibrations of monitoring equipment, detailed descriptions and calculations of avoided GHGs from any waste products used in the energy creation, and a comprehensive data management system to get started. You can see the difference and the importance when a GHG offset hinges on data and an independent claim as to that data’s accuracy. Clearly it’s easier to claim accuracy when it’s a metered product.

The need to improve on the data requirements and accuracy in land based agricultural GHG offsets is reflected in the proposed Nitrous Oxide Emissions Reduction Protocol (NERP). In very general terms, the NERP is the implementation of a best management practice, or nutrient management plan, that reduces the amount of nitrous oxide emissions from nitrogen based fertilizers. Recall that nitrous oxide has approximately 310 times more global warming potential than carbon dioxide, so even small reductions can add up to a significant amount of CO2e. This proposed protocol requires accurate record keeping and sign off by a Certified Crop Advisor (CCA) that a nutrient management plan was developed and implemented. Therefore, we are seeing the GHG protocol development process moving to ensure that land management based GHG offsets are creditable and verifiable.

Therefore, if agricultural offsets are to survive among other more accurately monitored and measured GHG offset types, it will demand accurate and verifiable data. This certainly seems to be supported by proposed protocols affecting agriculture, the market values of offsets, and the direction taken by policy makers. It may also mean improvements to existing GHG offset protocols like tillage management. What this means for the farm is that you get some extra mileage out of the good records you or your trusted advisor helps you keep. If you don’t have good records, maybe it’s about time to get started.

Reference: Bruce Love, Preferred Carbon

Market News

Fundamentals

World Production in Million Metric Tonnes   

	Production			Ending Stocks
	2007-08	Aug-09	Change	2007-08	Aug-09	Change
Rapeseed	48.4	56.5	17%	3	5.0	61%
Barley	133.2	142.7	7%	18	27.7	53%
Wheat	610.6	659.2	8%	119	183.5	54%
Corn	792.3	796.3	1%	128	141.5	11%
Soybeans	220.9	242.0	10%	53	50.3	-5%

Source: USDA – Updated Aug 13, 2009

Technical Indicators

I have set up these weekly updates to include market entry indicators to help you improve the timing of your grain marketing. Also, I added market trend indicators to give you a sense of the short and long term market trends.

Canola – November futures
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Wheat – December futures
Insert chart
Barley – October futures
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Canadian Dollar – September futures
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International Crop Weather News

Western Canada: Rain over the past week continued to improve the moisture supply in much of the Prairies. Southern regions received between 25 and 50 millimetres of precipitation. Temperatures were slightly colder than normal in Alberta, where a mild frost was reported in growing areas close to the mountains, close to normal in Saskatchewan and slightly warmer than normal in Manitoba. Sunny conditions with warmer-than-normal temperatures are forecast to begin Thursday, which will be very welcome for maturing crops.

United States: In the West, hot weather in the Pacific Coast States and the Southwest contrasts with cooler-than-normal conditions across the northern Intermountain region. Fieldwork, including Northwestern spring wheat harvesting, is advancing with few delays. On the Plains, chilly weather prevails across northern portions of the region, while showers and thunderstorms are affecting much of Kansas. Cool weather remains a concern with respect to crop developmental delays, especially in the Dakotas. In the Corn Belt, showers are affecting the mid-Mississippi Valley and surrounding areas. The rain is helping to soften soils that had begun to harden during the recent spell of warm, mostly dry weather.

Europe: Scattered showers over much of Europe maintain favorable soil moisture for reproductive to filling summer crops, although rain is not heavy enough to hamper winter grain and oilseed harvesting. Hot weather in the Balkans increases stress on reproductive corn and sunflowers. Rain in England slow winter wheat and rapeseed harvesting.

Former Soviet Union: Widely scattered showers in Ukraine and western Russia cause only brief interruptions in small grain harvesting. Additional rain is needed for summer crops in the filling stage. Rain in the Urals and Siberia Districts in Russia favors filling spring grains. In major spring grain producing areas of north-central Kazakhstan, persistent dryness increases stress on crops in western areas, while wet weather favors crops in the east.

East Asia: Typhoon Morakot brings flooding rains to Taiwan and the southeastern coast of China. Scattered showers benefit filling summer crops in central and southern China. Sunny, warm weather aids filling corn and soybeans in Manchuria.

Southeast Asia: Drier weather prevails in Indochina, benefiting summer-autumn rice harvesting in southern Vietnam and winter rice planting in northern Vietnam. Flooding continues in Luzon, Philippines, while dry weather prevails elsewhere.

South Asia: Dry, hot weather returns to northern India, reducing yield prospects for cotton, rice, and sugarcane. Unseasonably dry weather in central and southern India reduces soil moisture for oilseeds and cotton, raising concerns for crop stress and yield reductions.

Australia: Light showers in western and southeastern Australia maintain adequate moisture supplies for vegetative winter grains and oilseeds. Persistent dryness in Queensland is becoming increasingly unfavorable for jointing winter wheat.

South America: Dry, somewhat warmer weather promotes winter grain planting in Argentina, although many areas remain too dry for fieldwork. Showers maintain adequate to abundant moisture levels for vegetative wheat in southern Brazil.

Mexico: Scattered, generally light showers bring little relief from dryness to the southern plateau corn belt and other southern farming areas.

Source: USDA