Agronomist Notes

We’ve finally had some fantastic drying weather the last seven days. Pre-harvest glyphosate is in full swing, canola swathing has just begun and some early peas have been taken off already. I took a walk into our barley yesterday and I suspect we could be harvesting within a week! I guess we should think about dusting off the combine. Yikes!

I’ve been busy trying to stage canola swathing and time pre-harvest weed control. I tell you, trying to time swathing to maximize yield plus destroy late bloomers plus minimize the green count is going to put this agronomist to the test. There are many fields out there still in bloom and it’s the last week of August. We’re going to need divine intervention to pull some crops off without a frost. You could say the same of many wheat and barley fields with green streaks throughout the draws, hill tops and anywhere the crop struggled to emerge this spring.  

This week I’ll begin by providing tips on pre-harvest glyphosate and answer the odd ball questions we’re all thinking. Next, we’ll look at a new insect that is on my radar the last few years. We’ll look at a disease called bacterial leaf stripe that has me wondering if we should be paying more attention to it. I’ll discuss the importance of natural leaf senescence in order to maximize grain fill. Finally, Bruce Love of Preferred Carbon will give us an update on the two different carbon markets and we’ll finish with grain market news.

Agronomy

Harvest progress (Calgary to Drumheller to Three Hills) as of August 24, 2009

Date Seeded:	April 23-31	May 1-7	May 8-15
Wheat	0%	0%	0%
Canola	0%	0%	0%
Barley	0%	0%	0%
Peas	5%	2%	0%

This Week in Scouting

• Continue scouting for lygus bugs in canola.
• Check cereal crops for late tillers to determine whether to dessicate or swath.
• Begin swath timing early seeded canola fields or decide which fields can be straight cut..
• Check wheat fields for bacterial leaf stripe. Harvest fields with no infection for next years seed.

Tips on pre-harvest glyphosate use

We are now in the heart of pre-harvest season which brings loads of questions about timing and weed control. Given the variability in crop stages across many fields, producers are looking to use pre-harvest glyphosate as a tool to help dry the crop down. That being said, we must remember that using pre-harvest glyphosate as a dry down tool in cereals is only economical during cool, wet weather with actively growing perennial weeds, late germinating annual weeds or late tillers.

With that, I’ve put together a collection of tips to help you time you pre-harvest glyphosate and hopefully answer the questions not covered on the label.

• In order to use glyphosate as a tool to dry down straw and grain, at least 25% of the flag leaf must be green for it to absorb glyphosate effectively. IMPORTANT: You risk losing plumpness and yield if you apply glyphosate to a flag leaf that has more than 25% green leaf material.
• Using glyphosate at the recommended hard dough stage will not dry down a crop any faster than leaving it to mature on its own. Only if you’re targeting late green tillers or green weeds will the dry down process be faster with glyphosate.
• Heads and stems that are still green cannot absorb enough glyphosate to effectively kill the plant. Glyphosate must be absorbed through the leaves for effective uptake. You’re wasting your money if you expect glyphosate to dry down a crop that has no green leaves left. 
• Water volume: common sense prevails. If you have a heavy crop canopy with low lying weeds like dandelion, then increasing water volumes to 6 or 7 gallons per acre is wise. Glyphosate concentration is useless if it doesn’t contact the weed you’re targeting. A thin crop stand may only require 4.5 to 5 gallons per acre. A simple walk into the field will let you know what water volume to use. 
• Label recommendations are to wait until hard dough for application but if you have some pesky green areas that are medium dough and the flag leaf has died, you could still safely apply glyphosate. Yield and plumpness will not be risked as the grain fill phase is basically complete once the flag leaf is dried down.
• Aim for the majority. You’ll always have areas that are still quite green yet the majority of the field is ready to go. Come up with acreage and yield estimates of the green areas. Are they worth risking by spraying glyphosate too early? That’s your call; hopefully these tips will help put the pre-harvest challenge into perspective. SL

Aphids damaging wheat leaves

In the past few years I’ve noticed an increasing amount of damage caused by aphids in wheat fields. This is an unsual pest in wheat and I don’t know whether they are of any economic significance but it’s starting to catch my eye. If you look closely at the flag leaf, you can see necrotic lesions or tan coloured areas that look like disease. Upon closer inspection you’ll find aphids feeding on the back side of the leaf and dead areas where they have damaged leaf tissue, like in the photo here.

In the US and abroad aphids have been known to cause significant yield loss in wheat by reductions in leaf area, reduced photosynthesis, carbohydrate reserves, shoot and root growth and kernel number and wieght. Also, the honey dew excreted by aphids can reduce photosynthesis, promote leaf senescence and the growth of saprophytic fungi. Yield losses from some aphid species can claim up to 30 or 40% in wheat under the right conditions.   

Now, I don’t want to seem panicky but I do want us to be watching out for this perculiar pest. Any pest that reduces photosynthetic activity, destroys leaf area and has the potential to reduce yield is noteworthy to me. I haven’t sent any leaf samples away for identification but I intend to. I’d like us all to keep an eye out this fall and make note of the damage. If you’ve seen any aphid feeding or damage, please drop me a quick email at steve@beyondagronomy.com. SL

Reference: http://books.google.ca/books?id=GlmkpdPjf00C&pg=PA188&lpg=PA188&dq=aphid+damage+reduces+photosynthetic+activity+in+wheat&source=bl&ots=9M9Rxf5fyc&sig=8-NUzjN9W7tshye7LFr0pFy7WCk&hl=en&ei=s2-TSsaVHISosgOo_NTkDw&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=3#v=onepage&q=&f=false

Bacterial leaf stripe of wheat often misdiagnosed

Over the years I’ve noticed a great deal of late season diseases enter our wheat crops after flowering. However, what I thought was septoria or tan spot was actually something called bacterial leaf stripe. Bacterial leaf stripe is a disease that can be found in wheat as the crop nears the end of its growth cycle. The disease (caused by a Xanthomonas sp.) can develop rapidly and become severe after the crop finishes heading. I’ve seen this disease in fields of AC Harvest, CDC GO and Journey as well. Like other diseases, its development is dependent on weather conditions and the presence of susceptible plant hosts.

Symptoms: Bacterial leaf stripe symptoms appear after the crop has reached the heading growth stage. Plant leaves show longitudinal striping, and/or blotchy yellow or brown lesions (see picture below). During periods with leaf wetness, lesions and plant tissues surrounding them, appear water-soaked and feel slimy if touched. When plant tissues are dry and humidity is low, the same leaves will have a shiny appearance. Leaves look glazed as if they were frosted with a thin sugary glazing, similar to the glazing on a donut. In this case, however, the glazing consists of millions of dry bacterial cells that are awaiting transport to another leaf or plant. If flag leaves are severely diseased, yield losses can result. Maintaining the functioning photosynthetic area of flag leaves is important in preserving yield and test weight potentials.

Spread: Bacteria are transferred from one leaf to another during periods of leaf wetness. Wind provides leaf movement which allows localized spread of bacteria from plant to plant. Because the pathogen is spread through contact with diseased plants, fields may have initial “hot spots” or patterns of diseased plants that run parallel with wind direction. Bacteria are also known to be spread by plant-visiting insects. Bacteria can survive in soil organic matter for an undetermined period of time and on (or within) seed.

Yield loss: The disease mainly affects the grain filling potential of the kernels. Yield losses as high as 40 percent have occurred in the most severely diseased fields in Idaho, United States, although losses are generally 10 percent or less (Forster et al., 1986). Data has indicated that on average, losses below 5 percent could be expected when the percent infected flag leaf area is less than 10 percent. Yield loss is a linear function of the percent infected flag leaf area, and even a small-infected leaf area has an effect on yield.

Management: Application of fungicides is not recommended. While fungicides are often applied to control diseases caused by fungi (e.g.: septoria, tan spot), they have no activity against bacteria. The two best things you can do are to use clean seed and use crop rotations which avoid seeding wheat on wheat.

Inspect your fields now to determine which fields have the lowest incidence of bacterial leaf stripe. Keep that field for seed for next year. SL

Source and photo source: http://www.fao.org/docrep/006/Y4011E/y4011e0n.htm
Source: http://www1.agric.gov.ab.ca/$department/deptdocs.nsf/all/prm2384

Comments on natural leaf senescence during grain fill

One of the things I’ve paid closer attention to this year is the way our flag and penultimate leaves dry down during grain fill. As we know, the top two leaves in wheat contribute 65% to grain fill and contribute 80% in barley. That being said, have you heard anyone talk about what we can do to maximize grain fill? If 65% and 80% of grain fill comes from the top two leaves, I think we should be paying more attention to how our crops finish, don’t you?

The picture above is from a wheat field grown by Mike Solari from New Zealand, the current Guinness World record holder for wheat yield at 228 bushels per acre. I had a chance to walk though his crops in February this year as we discussed his management practices and philosophies. I was in awe by how clean and green the leaves were in his wheat. That and the fact that each head had between 90 and 125 kernels and were as thick as cigars! Mike emphasized the importance of the grain fill phase adding that good weather combined with delaying natural leaf senescence through proper fertility and disease management was paramount to producing world record yields.

In order to maximize grain fill by delaying natural senescence I believe we should focus our attention on proper crop nutrition to supply adequate nitrogen in the final stages of grain fill and disease prevention to keep leaves green and healthy right through to harvest. As I see it, with most wheat proteins below 14% and obvious disease infections on the upper leaves, we’ve a long way to go. I’ll keep you posted on future solutions. SL

Carbon Market News

A tale of two carbon markets

August 24, 2009- Recently we have seen the virtual price collapse of Chicago Climate Exchange (CCX) qualifying offsets, while the Alberta greenhouse gas (GHG) offset market remains firmly priced since the end of the 2008 true up period that ended March 31, of this year. Why would this happen when it appears that more robust carbon markets are just around the corner in both Canada and the US? We have a few opinions on this that may shed some light on the situation.

The CCX market for offsets has fallen from over $7 US/ton of CO2e just over a year ago today where the market closed at $0.20 US/ton for present and future vintages. So what would take this market down so dramatically? To start with, it is based on a voluntary commitment to reduce. Large final emitters can sign up and make a contractual promise to reduce their emissions over time. This all works well when corporations are humming along in a normal to prosperous economy, but that sure isn’t the case today.

Next throw in the “America Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009” that recently passed in the House of Representatives but is still waiting for the US Senate version to be debated and passed. The House form of the Bill has provisions for giving away a significant amount of emission allowances thereby reducing the immediate demand for offsets. Combine this with both the uncertainty of the US completing the legislation and the potential that it is watered down even further, and prices have even more reason to move in the direction they have.

Finally, the quality standard of the CCX offsets may not meet the requirements of a US “Cap-and-Trade” system. Quality standards in compliance markets are typically very stringent and meet the specific needs of policy makers to come up with recognized reductions. Arguably the CCX standards may not meet these needs and this is reflected in the price difference from offsets very likely to be recognized in the proposed US GHG reduction system. For example, the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) offsets which have already been recognized as exchangeable for compliance under the proposed US legislation are currently trading at approximately $3 US/ton.

North of the border in Alberta prices have remained firm since the end of March this year at around $11 to $13.50 CDN/tonne, depending on quality. The key difference here is that Alberta is a compliance market, GHG reductions are a statutory affair and not a voluntary, feel good, experience for large final emitters (LFEs). Demand is driven by regulation that meets the requirements of legislated reduction targets. Alberta origin only GHG offsets are one of the options available to LFEs to meet regulatory requirements and their price is currently capped at below the $15 CDN/tonne Tech Fund option. Adjusted for risk and cost of carry, Alberta origin GHG offsets are, in our opinion, trading at the price cap. Any adjustment to the price cap should be immediately reflected in the current price of offsets. Another factor possibly contributing to the value of Alberta offsets is the certainty over their use in compliance. The Alberta “Climate Change and Emissions Management Act, 2007” sets out certainty, and markets like certainty, giving market participants confidence in their use.

The difference between the current values on the CCX and the Alberta marketplace are startling to say the least. Even the prospects at this point in time look distinctly different between the two markets. A representative, who will remain un-named, from a LFE summarized it best: “I would rather pay $25/tonne under in a certain market than risk $1/tonne in an uncertain one.” This is one of those very rare times when regulation does make a market.

Reference: Bruce Love, Preferred Carbon
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author only and are not intended to represent financial advice.

Market News

Fundamentals

World Production in Million Metric Tonnes   

	Production			Ending Stocks			Ending Stocks
	2007-08	Aug-09	Change	2007-08	Aug-09	Change	5 Year Avg
Rapeseed	48.4	56.5	17%	3	5.0	61%	4.6
Barley	133.2	142.7	7%	18	27.7	53%	25.7
Wheat	610.6	659.2	8%	119	183.5	54%	138.6
Corn	792.3	796.3	1%	128	141.5	11%	125.9
Soybeans	220.9	242.0	10%	53	50.3	-5%	54

Source: USDA – Updated Aug 13, 2009

Technical Indicators

I have set up these weekly updates to include market entry indicators to help you improve the timing of your grain marketing. Also, I added market trend indicators to give you a sense of the short and long term market trends.

Canola – November Futures
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Wheat – December Futures
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Barley – Oct Futures
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Canadian Dollar – September futures
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International Crop Weather News

Western Canada: The winter wheat harvest is now underway in all three Prairie provinces. Below-normal temperatures persisted in most of Saskatchewan and Manitoba last week, delaying development of a crop that remains two to three weeks behind normal. Over the weekend, however, temperatures had reached 30 degrees in most southern growing areas. Frost-free conditions are required until mid-September to prevent quality damage to much of the Prairie crop. In the eastern Prairies, moderate to heavy rains occurred in most areas, to the detriment of crop development. Warmer-than-normal temperatures helped crop prospects in northern Alberta last week.

United States: In the West, a surge of monsoon moisture interacting with a cold front is producing scattered showers and thunderstorms from the Four Corners States to the Intermountain region. Meanwhile in the Pacific Coast States, warm, dry weather favors fieldwork and rapid development of crops such as rice and cotton. On the Plains, scattered showers across northern areas are causing minor wheat harvest delays. Hot, dry weather on the central and southern Plains is promoting rapid summer crop development. In the Corn Belt, dry weather and near- to below-normal temperatures prevail. Despite crop developmental delays, growing conditions remain mostly favorable for corn and soybeans.

Europe: Occasional showers over Europe maintain favorable soil moisture for reproductive to filling corn and sunflowers, but rain is not heavy enough to disrupt winter grain and oilseed harvesting. Cooler weather in the Balkans eases stress on filling summer crops. In contrast, heat and dryness on the Iberian Peninsula continue to reduce yield prospects and irrigation reserves for sunflowers and corn.

Former Soviet Union: In Ukraine, generally dry weather allows small grain harvesting to near completion. In western Russia, mostly light showers cause only temporary interruptions in small grain harvesting. Additional rain is needed for summer crops in the filling stage. Drier weather prevails across major spring wheat producing areas of Russia and Kazakhstan, while unseasonably cool weather slows crop development.

East Asia: The remnants of Tropical Cyclone Morakot bring more flooding to eastern China and the Korean Peninsula, causing minor damage to rice. Continuing dry weather reduces soil moisture for filling corn and soybeans in western Manchuria.

Southeast Asia: Monsoon showers return to Thailand, benefiting reproductive rice and corn. Drier weather in the northern Philippines eases flooding.

South Asia: Rain provides much-needed soil moisture for rice in eastern India. Dry, unseasonably hot weather in northern India reduces yield prospects for cotton and rice. Persistent dry weather in central and southern India reduces soil moisture for oilseeds and cotton.

Australia: Showers in Western Australia maintain generally favorable conditions for winter grains and oilseeds. In southeastern Australia, widely scattered showers maintain local moisture supplies for winter grains. Unfavorably dry weather is expanding in Queensland and northern New South Wales, further reducing moisture supplies for jointing winter wheat.

South America: Warm, dry weather dominated most Argentine growing areas, and the effects of long-term drought remain a concern in most other farming areas. Heavy rain keeps vegetative winter wheat excessively wet in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil.

Mexico: Throughout southern Mexico, corn and other rain-fed summer crops are in need of moisture.