Agronomist Notes
We’re now on the home stretch to harvest, which is hard to believe! I suspect there will be a lot of canola cut the last week of August and malt barley combined at the same time. Early seeded wheat might be ready for harvest by the end of August but it’s still hard to tell with so much variability from field to field. The forecast is for cool, wet weather this week which is refreshing; we’ll lose out on some maturity but gain on grain fill.
Late last week I noticed an increase in lygus bug pressure in canola with some fields jumping up to 1.5 to 2.3 lygus per sweep in the Airdrie and Strathmore areas. I’m still in the leave it alone camp and will probably recommend a spray application if numbers jump above 5 per sweep. I’d sooner let the beneficial insects do their job. Disease pressure has subsided over the last week but may increase with the cool, wet weather. However, we’re on the tail end of the season and likley well past any economical fungicide applications.
This week we’ll discuss a successful example of seeding speed and how it relates to canola maturity. Next, we’ll look at WAAS GPS signals and why they could get worse over time. Next, I’ll run the numbers on Pod Stick, a product designed to reduce pod shattering at harvest. Next, Bruce Love will give part two of his article, “Can the Tech Fund deliver?” We’ll finish with fundamental, technical and international crop and weather news. Have a great week. SL
Agronomy
Crop Staging Area (Calgary to Drumheller to Three Hills) as of Aug 3.
Date Seeded: |
April 23-31 |
May 1-7 |
May 8-15 |
Wheat |
soft dough |
milky dough |
watery dough |
Canola |
pod-fill |
early pod-fill |
late-flower |
Barley |
soft dough |
milky dough |
watery dough |
Peas |
pod fill |
pod-fill |
pod-fill |
This Week in Scouting
- Continue scouting for lygus bugs and diamond back moths in canola.
- Monitor wheat midge in fields that haven’t finished flowering.
- Monitor stripe rust in wheat fields, especially winter wheat and CPS wheat.
- Begin pre-harvest field analysis and start planning your pre-harvest dry down strategies.
Seeding speed affects crop uniformity and maturity
I had the opportunity to watch and compare the emergence and maturity across thousands of acres of canola this year. As we know, 2009 proved to be very challenging with heavy residue combined with cool, dry soils and several frost events hammering plant stand densities. In fact, most the canola fields out there looked downright ugly a month ago! I did have one client whose fields stood out among the rest with excellent emergence, uniformity and maturity. Why? Seeding speed!
We all know that speed kills, especially when it comes to planting canola. The picture above shows a 460 acre field of canola with rolling, hilly topography that has just finished bloom. Right from the start, this field emerged uniformly, looked excellent all season long and finished blooming all at once. The biggest difference was that it was seeded at 3.8 to 4 MPH while the others were seeded at 4.8 to 5.5 MPH. That’s just one mile an hour slower and look at the great results. By contrast, the picture below is a canola field just four miles away that is finishing bloom in some areas and just starting in others. I love the blooming canola in the wheel tracks. What do you think uneven maturity is costing producers each year? Let’s run the numbers.
Steve’s quick math
Example: 160 acre canola field with 20% finishing bloom 10 days later with an average yield of 30 bu/ac. Canola is $10 a bushel.
160 acres × 20% = 32 acres effected
30 bu/ac × 50 lbs/bu = 1,500 lbs/ac of canola
1,500 lbs × 30% reduction in seed size due to early swathing = 450 lbs/ac
450 lbs/ac ÷ 50 lbs/bu = 9 bu/ac
9 bu/ac × 32 acres effected = 288 bu
288 bu × $10.00 = $2,880 total loss or $18.00/ac
So, with just a 30% reduction in seed size on 20% of the field that matured 10 days later, we lost a total of $18.00 an acre across the entire field. If you’re seed 500 to 1,500 acres of canola, you’re looking at a loss of $9,000 to $27,000 each year. Sound significant? You might think twice about speeding through seeding next year. SL
RTL Seeding speed: http://www.reducedtillage.ca/article315.aspx
WAAS GPS signals may get worse over the next decade
If you thought your GPS drifted slightly this year, especially when travelling east/west, would you believe it’s about to get worse over the next decade? Scientists at the University of New Brunswick are studying the detrimental effects on WAAS signals caused by increased solar activity. Anecdotal evidence today suggests that those using WAAS GPS signals will see a significant increase in the number of delays, lost signals and accuracy, sometimes up to 10 metres of variance within a time interval of 2-3 minutes across Canada. All this is due to increased solar activity and atmospheric disturbance.
As we know, the use of GPS guidance in agriculture has increased dramatically over the last ten years with a rapid increase in GPS guided auto steer in the last few years. What’s interesting is that GPS use has grown in popularity at same time solar activity has been dropping, which has lead to less solar disturbance and improved GPS signals.
To understand how solar activity affects GPS signals, we must first understand how GPS works. Here is the Coles notes version of how GPS works.
- More than 24 GPS satellites are in the atmosphere at all times. They orbit the earth within a period of twelve hours and transmit signals to GPS receivers on the ground.
- Each GPS satellite transmits data that indicates its location and the current time.
- The distance to the GPS satellites can be determined by estimating the amount of time it takes for their signals to reach the receiver.
- When the receiver estimates the distance to at least four GPS satellites, it can calculate its position in three dimensions.
- The GPS receiver "knows" the location of the satellites, because that information is included in satellite transmissions.
- By estimating how far away a satellite is, the receiver also "knows" it is located somewhere on the surface of an imaginary sphere centered at the satellite. It then determines the sizes of several spheres, one for each satellite. The receiver is located where these spheres intersect.
GPS receivers passively receive satellite signals and require an unobstructed view of the sky. This is why solar activity has significance. The increase in solar activity over the next decade will create more disturbances in the atmosphere which will lead to more blocked signals and poor GPS signals. You can see in the picture above, the solar sunspot activity runs in eleven year cycles. 2008 was the bottom of the sunspot cycle and we are now on our way up to the peak in 2013. Bottom line; I’ve been told that the only solution to improve GPS signal over the next decade will be to move to RTK guided GPS equipment. I’d start making plans and investigating GPS options sooner than later. SL
Source: Richard B. Langley and Peter J. Stewart, Geodetic Research Laboratory, University of New Brunswick
Do anti-shattering agents pencil out for canola this year?
With the variability in maturity on many canola fields this year, producers have been asking whether they should use an anti shattering agent to buy some time at swathing and allow the crop to mature. There are several products on the market such as Pod Ceal, Pod Stick and Spodnam that help reduce shattering in canola as well as in peas, lupins and beans. Each product contains either a latex coating like Pod Stick or a polymer coating like Pod Seal or Spodnam. I’ve had the opportunity to work with Pod Seal and found it quite beneficial when used under irrigation with very large canola crops (70 bu+) and a limited capacity to swath it properly.
Anticipated benefits of using an anti-shattering agent:
- Minimizes shatter and cutter bar losses.
- Minimizes seed quality loss.
- Allows crop to reach its full yield potential.
- Allows full oil development.
- Achieves greater flexibility in harvesting.
- Minimizes green seed.
- Allows for straight cutting.
- Standing canola allows you to get back to a field quicker to harvest in moist conditions.
With that, does it make sense to apply an anti-shattering agent to extend the swathing window on dryland canola with 30 to 40 bushel yield potential? First, we’ll run through application timing and rates and then look at the numbers to see if it makes sense economically.
Timing: The best time to apply an anti shattering product in canola would be when 30-60% of the seed has changed colour in the middle of the main stem. This is approximately 3 weeks before harvest.
Mixing: Some products like Pod Stick can be applied with glyphosate or Reglone in InVigor canola or with Liberty in RR canola.
Application Rates: Pod Ceal: $10.25 ac. Rate: 500 ml/ac @ 5 gal/ac by air or 20 gal/ac by ground. Effective for 40 days after application. Made by Brett Young
Pod Stick: $9.76 ac. 400 ml/ac 5 gal/ac by air or 20 gal/ac by ground. Effective for 56 days after application. Made by UAP
The problem we face this year is uneven maturity. We’ll have to sacrifice yield in some areas by swathing too early in order to swath the majority of the field on time. So what will that cost us in yield and does it make sense to apply an anti-shattering agent to extend our swathing window? Let’s run the numbers.
Steve’s quick math
Example: 160 acre field of canola with a 35 bushel yield potential that has 25% of the crop roughly 10 days behind in maturity. Canola price is $10.00 a bushel.
Cost of application: $9.76 ac (Pod Stick) + $10.00/ac by air at 5 gal/ac = $19.76/ac
2:1 return on investment = $19.76 × 2 = $39.52/ac
Yield loss required: $39.52/ac ÷ $10.00/bu = 3.95 bu/ac
Yield loss in 25% of field: (3.95 bu/ac × 160 ac) ÷ (160 ac × 25%) = 15.8 bu/ac
Therefore, in this example, you would have to lose 15.8 bushels an acre (45%) in 25% of the field you’re trying to protect by extending the swathing window. Given the circumstances, this is not a profitable strategy in my opinion. Plan to swath according to the majority of the crop and take your losses. SL
Reference: Brett Young http://www.brettyoung.ca/podceal/docs/Pod_Ceal_booklet.pdf
Comparing current crop stages in Australia and Canada
A mate of mine, Robert Ruwoldt from Australia, and I have been trading crop photos back and forth this season. I thought it would be interesting to show you the differences between our crop stages at this time of year. The picture on the left is his wheat that is currently tillering and the picture on the right is my wheat which is now soft dough.
What’s interesting? Both crops were planted in early May. The Aussie wheat was planted heading into their coldest and lowest light intensity period versus mine which was planted into our, wettest, warmest and most light intensive time of year. Fun to compare, isn’t it? We Canadians always knew the Aussies were slow. Cheers Ruwy! SL
Carbon Market
Can the Tech Fund deliver- Part 2
August 3, 2009- As we looked at the implications for the Alberta Climate Change and Emissions Management Fund or “Tech Fund” in last week’s column, it raised some additional questions from a market analysis standpoint. In particular, what happens to compliance worthy greenhouse gas (GHG) offsets if the Tech Fund access price stays fixed at $15/tonne for 2009?
To answer our question we have to examine market expectations. Many market participants, including Preferred Carbon, have the view that both GHG offset values and the price of access to the Tech Fund will rise over time. This is supported by a number of factors including indications from Alberta Environment that the price of access to the Tech Fund should rise over time, the level of GHG emissions that define a large final emitter (LFE) may be lowered increasing demand, and access to the Fund as a 100% compliance option may be reduced. Combine this with a Tech Fund not having a place in a cap and trade regime, particularly in the proposed US climate change legislation, and you clearly have a good argument for the Fund’s influence on offsets declining over time.
This leaves us now to consider the impact of timing and changes to the Tech Fund. If the market expects the access price to the Tech Fund to move up over time, then there is an argument for holding compliance grade GHG offsets priced against the current lower price level. In this situation, all immediate compliance needs would be met through Tech Fund contributions and few if any GHG offsets would be used for compliance purposes. The longer the Provincial Government waits to make any announcement about changes to the Tech Fund access price, the more likely it will be used exclusively for 2009 compliance by LFEs.
If the Provincial Government decides to leave current Tech Fund pricing (set at $15/tonne of CO2e) in place and give notice of a price increase for 2010, then 100% use of the Tech Fund is virtually assured for the 2009 compliance year. Why wouldn’t an LFE take advantage of a relatively lower cost compliance option? Offsets that had been purchased under the influence of the earlier price cap just became that much more attractive. Their cost of carry to the next compliance period, or 2010, would very likely be less than the potential price increase in the Tech Fund, making it a fairly simple financial decision. In addition, GHG offsets would now trade at a discount to the new higher price cap making them even less attractive for use in the current compliance period.
It would look today like the marketplace clearly favors use of the Tech Fund to meet 2009 compliance. Does this mean that the Tech Fund is really a beneficiary? Let’s think about that a minute. Yes, the Tech Fund ends up with more funds, but it also has to reduce more GHGs. Given that GHG offset prices are moving higher in our theory, then is it realistic that the Tech Fund will come up with GHG reductions at a lower cost than the offsets market? I kinda think not.
Reference: Bruce Love, Preferred Carbon
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author only and are not intended to represent financial advice.
Market News
Fundamental Analysis
World Production in Million Metric Tonnes
Production |
Ending Stocks |
Ending Stocks |
|||||
2007-08 |
Jul-09 |
Change |
2007-08 |
Jul-09 |
Change |
5 Year Avg |
|
Rapeseed |
48.4 |
55.4 |
14% |
3 |
4.5 |
45% |
4.6 |
Barley |
133.2 |
142.1 |
7% |
18 |
27.7 |
53% |
25.7 |
Wheat |
610.6 |
656.0 |
7% |
119 |
182.6 |
53% |
138.6 |
Corn |
792.3 |
789.8 |
0% |
128 |
139.2 |
9% |
125.9 |
Soybeans |
220.9 |
243.0 |
10% |
53 |
51.0 |
-4% |
54 |
Source: USDA
Technical Indicators
I have set up these weekly updates to include market entry indicators to help you improve the timing of your grain marketing. Also, I added market trend indicators to give you a sense of the short and long term market trends.
Canola – November Futures
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Wheat – December Futures
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Barley – Oct Futures
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Canadian Dollar – September futures
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International Crop Weather News
Western Canada: Dry conditions were widespread over the past week. Precipitation was in the form of scattered showers with only southern Manitoba and parts of the Peace River receiving over 15 mm. Temperatures remained 1 to 5 degrees Celsius above normal in the west, while Manitoba and eastern Saskatchewan were below normal. Daytime highs ranged from the upper twenties to low-thirties in the southwestern Prairies.
The continued cool temperatures in the east slowed crop development which increases the risk of frost damage. The absence of rains amplified moisture stress concerns in southern Alberta and south-central Saskatchewan. Delayed development across the prairies remains the primary concern at this time.
United States: Rainfall was generally confined to the eastern half of the country during the past week. Although amounts exceeded 100 mm in a few locations in the northeast, generally more moderate amounts (25-75 mm) fell across the Cornbelt. The PNW remained mostly dry, with some isolated showers falling. Cold temperatures continued over the Northern Plains, Midwest, and Cornbelt. Western Montana, the PNW, and the southern Great Plains had above normal temperatures.
The dry, warm temperatures in the PNW allowed winter cereal harvest to progress rapidly, but conditions for spring cereals deteriorated further. While the continued below normal temperatures avoid heat stress for corn and soybean crops, they slow crop development. Above average late season weather conditions will be required. Nearly all crops remain behind normal in development from the five-year average. Continued high temperatures in the Southern Plains caused further stress to summer crops in the region.
Argentina: The east coast of Argentina received light to moderate precipitation (10-50 mm) from the Northeast to La Pampa and further south. Heavier rains fell in southern Entre Rios and eastern Buenos Aires (50-100 mm). Only scattered, light showers fell across the west. Temperatures in the cereal producing regions were normal to 5 degrees below normal. Daily highs were in the teens in all but the north where temperatures reached the low twenties. Light frosts were widespread. The precipitation has improved soil moisture conditions and will encourage further planting in southern Buenos Aires and La Pampa. In areas further north where the window for seeding has passed the rains were very helpful to vegetative cereals.
Brazil: Rains continued across the south and southeast regions of Brazil last week, with Parana and Sao Paulo precipitation reporting amounts in the 50 to 100 mm range. Other neighbouring areas generally received 10 to 35 mm. Temperatures were slightly below normal with daily highs in the low twenties in the south and in the upper twenties in the north. Frosts were widespread across the south from southern Parana to Rio Grande do Sul. Crops in the north are in the filling stage, while in the far south winter crops are in the vegetative stage. The frost will affect crops from the flowering to maturing stages in Parana.
Australia: Light rains continued across the southern coastal regions this past week (10-40 mm). Further inland, scattered showers limited evaporation but did little to boost soil moisture. Temperatures were below normal in the west and above normal across the rest of the country. Daily highs were in the teens to low twenties. The continued moisture and mild temperatures have been beneficial for crops.
Western Europe: Light to moderate rains (10-50 mm) and locally heavier amount (50–100 mm) interrupted the soft wheat and barley harvest in northern France and Germany last week. The rains also raised quality concerns for soft wheat in the northern areas. Temperatures were close to normal across northern Europe. Daily high temperatures were mostly between 20 and 30 degrees Celsius across northern regions, and reached the low to mid-thirties in France and south eastern Germany.
Dry conditions and seasonally hot temperatures across southern Europe allowed any remaining harvest activities to resume, while irrigation demand increased significantly for the summer crops in the region. High temperatures reached 35 to 45 degrees Celsius in the southern growing areas.
Eastern Europe: Unsettled weather continued across much of Eastern Europe last week with low-pressure systems moving across the northern areas, which resulted in heavy rainfall amounts (25-100 mm). Last week's rains benefited the grain crops in the filling stage in Poland and the Baltic region, but hampered the barley harvest. The Balkan and the southern regions returned to more favourable weather, allowing harvest to progress. Scattered light rains in central Europe continued to favour the corn crops. Temperatures were slightly above normal across the region. Daily highs were generally between 25 to 35 degrees Celsius in the north and between 30 to 40 degrees Celsius in the south.
Russia: Light to moderate rains (10-50 mm) maintained adequate moisture for the heading spring grains across the entire Central and Northwest Districts and the western areas of the Volga region, while the southern and eastern areas of the Volga region received lesser amounts last week. The winter grain harvest continued under good weather conditions in the Southern District, while minor harvest delays were reported northward. Above normal temperatures across western Russia continued to stress summer crops, especially corn and sunflowers.
Ukraine: Light to moderate rains (10-50 mm) fell in the Ukraine last week, except in the southern and central growing regions, which caused summer crops to suffer from high temperatures and lack of moisture. The winter grain harvest continued to progress in all regions with minor delays in the western areas. Temperatures were 1 to 5 degrees Celsius above normal across the country, with daily highs between 30 and 40 degrees Celsius.
Kazakhstan: Dry conditions prevailed again in Kazakhstan last week, with the exception of the northeastern edge of the country, which received light to moderate rainfall (10-50 mm). Temperatures were 1 to 5 degrees below normal, which reduced the evaporation demand. Even though, the soil moisture reserves continued to drop dramatically across the country, and any additional moisture in the coming weeks will be crucial for the yield determination. Daily high temperatures ranged between 25 to 30 degrees Celsius in the north and 30 to 40 degrees Celsius in the south.
China: Moderate to heavy rains (100+mm) last week continued in parts of Heilongjiang, Jilin, and Liaoning. Further west, precipitation in Mongolia and Nei Mongol was limited to light rains and showers. Temperatures were mostly above normal in the south and interior and below normal in the northeast. In the areas of the northeast receiving heavy rains, excess moisture problems were further amplified. The showers in Mongolia benefitted spring cereals. The increased rains in the North China Plain boosted crop growth and eased irrigation demand.
India/Pakistan: Monsoon rains continued to advance at a more normal pace, leading to above normal rainfall amounts for some regions. Heavy rains were reported across central and western India (100-400 mm). The monsoon rains have been inconsistent in the north. Parts of Jammu, Kashmir, Haryana, and northern Pakistan received less than 10 mm of precipitation. Temperatures were generally normal, with high's ranging from 30 to 45 degrees Celsius. The return to more seasonal precipitation amounts has eased concerns about water shortage and allowed localized replenishment to soils and reservoirs. The lack of rains in the north has diminished prospects for summer crops such as cotton, sugar cane, and legumes.
North Africa: Generally dry and unseasonably hot weather prevailed in North Africa last week. Temperatures were 1 to 7 degrees Celsius above normal, with the highest deviations reported in Morocco and western Algeria. Daily high temperatures reached the mid-forties everywhere. The harvest is nearing completion in the region.
Iran: Dry conditions across all of Iran allowed the harvest to progress further northwest in the country last week. Temperatures were normal to slightly above normal in the main growing areas. Daily high temperatures ranged from 30 to 45 degrees Celsius depending on the region.
Source: CWB