Agronomist Notes
I arrived in Victoria last Sunday to find the state was up in smoke and my destination, Horsham, was on fire.
I arrived late in the evening, a day after the worst of the fires had gone through and after the temperature had dropped 20 degrees from the mid-40s. My host Robert Ruwoldt spent the night putting out fires; in the end eight homes, a golf club and pro shop were lost. The following morning, without a wink of sleep, Robert took us out to his farm for the day. Now that’s some kind of hospitality.
I spent four days with Mr. Ruwoldt, a grain farmer who practices controlled traffic and inter-row seeding techniques. After that, I had a visit with fellow Nuffielder Murray Scholz, who showed me his own inter-row seeding techniques and equipment. I also had a chance to visit a neighboring farm that uses controlled traffic and inter-row seeding on 10,000 acres. On Thursday I’m off to Western Australia and look forward to what’s in store there. Just 13 days left on this action-packed trip!
In this week’s issue, we’ll look at compaction on sandy soils and what to do about it. Next, we’ll discuss how we compare grain production efficiencies across countries and climates. We’ll also look at the carbon market outside of Alberta and how it’s shaping up. We’ll end with Market News and international crop and weather news. Make sure to sign up for the free trial of Bill Gary’s Price Perceptions- Canadian Supplement, a marketing tool that I find particularly valuable. Have a great week. SL
Compaction happens: what do you do about it?
I’ve always understood compaction to be a problem specific to clay soils. I’ve ranted on about the consequences and have suggested a few ways we can minimize it, like using duals on air carts or even on pull-type sprayers. However, I’m realizing that I’ve excluded those who farm sandy-type soils from my preaching and I shouldn’t have. The fact is soils compact whether they’re sand or clay and no amount of freeze-thaw action over the winter is enough to repair the damage in many cases.
The photos to the right are of an Aussie experiment demonstrating compaction from a high clearance sprayer in sandy soil. In the first picture, an open-bottomed bucket was placed in the field, and a mixture of water and white paint was poured into it. The paint seeped evenly through the profile. In the second picture, the same paint technique was used but was placed instead on the wheel tracks of the sprayer that followed the same track for two years. The paint flows to the right and then slides down the outside of the compacted area. I thought that sandy soils don’t compact but this study clearly shows something different.
So, what are my current thoughts on minimizing compaction on all soil types? You’ll be hearing me talk more about the use of controlled traffic systems. Simply put, controlled traffic is a farming system that controls all traffic with tram lines so that the area of compaction is limited. This is not a new idea and the Aussie’s have just begun to embrace the technique in a few areas. I see big potential for the system to improve soil quality, soil biota, and moisture use efficiency, increase yield, decrease fuel use and improve the timeliness of our spray application after rainfall, just to name a few benefits.
Let’s think about the compaction we’ve seen in our fields over time. If you do the math on the traffic your fields see in one year, most of you would be looking at over 40% including pre-burn spraying, seeding, post-emerge spraying, swathing, combining, trucking and grain carts. What are the chances you’ll be driving in the same tracks the following year? Likely slim, so, in two years you’ve travelled over 80% of the field.
What concerns me is that the effects of compaction are not as obvious in years when soil moisture is plentiful and we’ve recently had several wetter than ‘normal’ years. In times of moisture shortage, plants on compacted soil stress more easily and reduced growth and yields are noticeable. I’ve seen the compaction caused in the last few years and wonder what we have in store for many of our fields. I’ll get into more detail on this topic when I get home. SL
For more information visit:
http://www.controlledtrafficfarming.net/
http://soilquality.org/practices/controlled_traffic.html
http://extension.missouri.edu/xplor/agguides/agengin/g01630.htm
http://www.dpi.nsw.gov.au/archive/agriculture-today-stories/june-2006/controlled-traffic-farming
Comparing grain production efficiencies across countries and regions
I’ve had the privilege of visiting grain farms in six different countries, each with very different climates and I’ve often thought about which one is the most efficient at producing grain. Really, it doesn’t matter if you get 35 inches of rain or 5 inches, what matters most is how much you produce with the rain you receive. I think the best way to compare grain production efficiency between neighbors and countries is to measure the amount of grain produced per rainfall received.
For instance, in the photo on the right you’ll see a two-row barley head that has 32 kernels on it. This crop had 6 inches (150 mm) of rain on it and yielded 4 T/ha or 75 bu/ac! To put this in perspective, on most years we’ll get 32 kernels per head after a rainy season with 8 to 12 inches of rain. In our climate and under our management techniques we would yield around 2.4 T/ha or 45 bu/ac with 6 inches of rain. If you measure the amount of grain produced and rainfall received you’ll see a noticeable difference.
2008 barley on Robert Ruwoldt’s farm: 4000 kg/ha ÷ 150 mm/rain = 26.6 kg/mm
2008 barley on Steve and Mitch’s farm: 3400 kg/ha ÷ 228 mm/rain = 14.91 kg/mm
If you look at the difference between the amount of rain we receive and the amount of grain we produce, you can see that Robert’s farm is more efficient than mine. In fact, he can produce 78% more grain with an equivalent amount of rainfall. If that doesn’t raise my eyebrows!! Now that I have a benchmark to shoot for, I can start to alter my management techniques to try and achieve better yields with the rain we get.
I’m not satisfied with the usual argument that people achieve high yields because they have better soils than you or more rainfall. I say so what. Australia has some of the most weathered and unproductive soils on earth yet Robert’s soil is somehow naturally gifted? If his soils are naturally gifted and he just “gets the rainfall” then why do I see neighbouring fields look drought-stricken? Could it be that using controlled traffic and inter-row seeding, low disturbance disk openers and paying close attention to soil health is paying off in yield?
This year I would encourage you to buy a weather station on the farm and begin logging your weather data to begin benchmarking your performance over time to see if you’re improving. The CWB has a program on that brings the cost of a weather station down to $900 per unit. This allows you access to all weather stations across Western Canada. I think it’s a great idea. SL
http://www.cwb.ca/public/en/farmers/weather/stations/
Hurry up and Wait on Federal Green House Gas Policy
February 16, 2009- The majority of our columns focus on the Alberta GHG offset, or carbon credit, market but once in a while it is interesting to see what is happening outside of Alberta. Last year the Federal Government announced the “Turning the Corner” plan for reducing the intensity of GHG emissions based on a similar system to what we have in Alberta today. The plan was to roll out an initial round of offset protocols by May of this year and compliance by Large Final Emitters (LFEs) was to start 2010. But one Federal election, a new US president, and a financial crisis later, our Federal Government has pretty much abandoned that plan, although not officially announced, in favor of whatever the United States goes with. The result of all this goes well beyond just a delay in policy and potentially eliminates a Canadian solution.
The current US administration appears to be well positioned and well motivated to address climate change in a strong way. In a dramatic departure from the prior administration, US President Obama appears committed to taking the USA from a laggard in climate change policy to a world leader. Combine this with a mandate to reduce US dependence on foreign oil and you have a recipe for a climate change policy that may make Canada regret not acting sooner.
As the US Government acts revive its faltering economy, more financial resources are being directed to energy savings and alternative energy sources. This is the first step in a more comprehensive plan by the US to reduce emissions. The next step will likely include a cap and trade system for emissions, where an absolute cap is placed on GHG emissions and reduced over time. So given this outcome in the US and the stated position of Canada to integrate GHG policy in a continental market with the US, what’s next for us?
It is hard to imagine that the US will not act to protect a fledgling alternative energy industry from the importation of cheap dirty oil from Canada. In particular, Canadian oil and gas exports to the US will need to be produced under acceptable GHG regulations or we face dumping charges. So Canada really has no choice and really no argument to delay GHG policy beyond what the US adopts. If we had any GHG policy in place today, there may be an argument for an integration period. Canada could claim the hardship of the financial crisis for yet another delay, but this may be difficult if the US acts and they are arguably worse off than us. The result is we will get a made in the USA policy that will likely not favor Alberta.
So, what impact has Canada’s outstanding ability to not act on climate change had on the GHG offset industry outside of Alberta? About a year ago we had significant interest in offset projects that would likely be considered good for compliance in the pending Federal system and prices that supported investment. Today, many projects are not moving ahead and prices have fallen to levels that almost reflect distressed selling while we wait.
Reference: Bruce Love, Preferred Carbon
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author only and are not intended to represent financial advice.
Market News
Bill Gary’s Price Perceptions comes to Canada
I've been working diligently to get Bill Gary of Price Perceptions to deliver a bi-weekly technical analysis on Canadian grains. Bill Gary is well known for his easy to read technical analysis on US commodities. Well, I’ve managed to persuade him and the first issue arrived on Friday. The technical analysis includes spring wheat, feed barley, canola and the Canadian dollar. Bill Gary is by far the best technical analyst I know and has over 30 years experience in the industry. His information will provide us with a new tool to help improve the timing of our grain marketing. I'm tired of the reactive analysis in our current grain market newsletters— finally, we have a proactive tool at our disposal! Enjoy the read and the education. If you have any questions, just drop me an email. SL
Sign up today for a free trial by clicking on www.cis-okc.com/CanSup.html or calling (800) 231-0477.
Fundamental Analysis
Updated USDA report February 2009.
Technical Indicators
I have set up these weekly updates to include market entry indicators to help you improve the timing of your grain marketing. Also, I added market trend indicators to give you a sense of the short and long term market trends.
Canola http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart.php?cbase=CA&market=RS&cterm=39
Support: $415.73
Resistance 1: $425.63
Resistance 2: $435.53
Market Entry
The Bollinger Bands are indicating an oversold market. Volatility appears to be declining. The market appears oversold, but may continue to become more oversold before reversing. Look for some price strength before taking any bullish positions based on this indicator.
Market Trend
The Relative Strength Index is somewhat oversold at 47.06. However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence before getting too bullish here.
MACD is in bearish territory now, but has not issued a signal. The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is UP. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is UP.
Feed Barley http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart.php?cbase=BA&market=AB&cterm=39
Support: $142.33
Resistance 1: $142.73
Resistance 2: $143.13
Market Entry
The Bollinger Bands are indicating an oversold market, but may continue to become more oversold before reversing. Look for some price strength before taking any bullish positions based on this indicator.
Market Trend
The Relative Strength Index is somewhat oversold at 43.56. The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is DOWN. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is DOWN. However, the recent upturn in the MacdMA may indicate a short term rally within the next few bars.
Hard Red Spring Wheat http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart.php?cbase=MW&market=MW&cterm=39
Support: $6.29-4
Resistance 1: $6.38-2
Resistance 2: $6.47-0
Market Entry
The Bollinger Bands are indicating an oversold market.
Market Trend
The Relative Strength Indicator is somewhat oversold at 45.72. Recently the market has been extremely bearish, however currently the market has lost some of its bearishness. It’s possible that we may see a market rally here. If so, the rally might turn out to be a good short selling opportunity.
The MACD is in bearish territory. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is DOWN. The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is UP.
Canadian Dollar http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart.php?cbase=CD&market=CD&cterm=39
Support: $0.7949
Resistance 1: $0.807
Resistance 2: $0.819
Market Entry
The Bollinger Bands are indicating an oversold market. Based on conventional interpretation the market is technically bearish.
Market Trend
The Relative Strength Index is somewhat oversold at 46.44. However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence here before getting too bearish here.
The MACD is in bearish territory. The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is DOWN. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is DOWN. However, the recent upturn in the MacdMA may indicate a short term rally within the next few bars.
Glossary of Technical Terms http://www2.barchart.com/education/learning.asp
International Crop and Weather News Update
Ukraine: “I just came back from Ukraine. Crops to date are in good condition, and the reserve of water in the ground is roughly 80 to 100 mm. The winter rapeseed didn’t lose its leaves because it was protected by the snow during the -30°C weather. The cereals also look good. Yesterday it was raining.
I met some neighbours who farm in the Ukraine as well; generally, they can’t access credit for their farms and so, they don’t plan on spraying fertilisers and pesticides or some just a minimum. I saw a lot of corn fields in the Poltava region that weren’t harvested (price too low and no money to get fuel). The economic situation in Ukraine is generally awful!” Jean Paul Kihm, France
United States: In the West, the fourth in series of Pacific storms is producing another round of rain and snow in northern and central California. While summer water-supply prospects are favorable in much of the West, California and the Great Basin remain at risk for completing a third consecutive year of drought. On the Plains, snow in Nebraska and neighboring areas is benefiting winter wheat. Meanwhile, on the southern Plains, warm weather is causing drought-stressed wheat to lose its winter hardiness. In the Corn Belt, rain and snow showers are spreading into parts of the Missouri Valley, while mild, dry weather prevails across central and eastern portions of the region. Lowland flooding lingers in a few Midwestern river basins due to ice jams and runoff from recent rainfall and melting snow. In the South, warm, dry weather favors spring planting preparations and other early-season fieldwork.
Europe: Additional heavy rain in southern France, Italy and the Iberian Peninsula causes flooding but increases reservoirs and irrigation reserves. In the Balkans, above-normal temperatures keep the region devoid of snow cover. Dry weather and seasonable temperatures in Germany and Poland maintain favorable conditions for dormant grains and oilseeds, although crop areas are devoid of a protective snowpack.
Former Soviet Union: Unseasonably mild weather continues to provide favorable overwintering conditions for winter grains in Ukraine and southern Russia but melts protective snow cover. A moderate to deep snow cover insulates winter grains from bitter cold across northern Russia.
Southeast Asia: Torrential showers create unfavorable wetness for corn in the southern Philippines and oil palm development and harvesting in eastern Malaysia.
South Asia: Dry weather across central and southern India favors cotton harvesting. Above-normal temperatures in northern India promote winter wheat development.
Middle East: Above-normal temperatures keep most wheat areas devoid of protective snow cover. Showers in Iran maintain favorable soil moisture reserves for dormant winter grains.
North Africa: Locally heavy rain maintains abundant topsoil moisture for vegetative winter wheat and barley in Morocco and Algeria.
Australia: Hot, mostly dry weather in southern Queensland and northern New South Wales reduces moisture supplies for reproductive summer crops.
South America: Widespread, locally heavy rain brings needed drought relief to most grain, oilseed, and cotton areas of central and northern Argentina. The moisture helped to stabilize the condition of early-planted summer crops, although some have already experienced irreversible declines in yield potential. Additional rain and seasonable temperatures would be of greatest benefit to second-crop soybeans. In Brazil, beneficial rain overspreads Parana but misses much of Rio Grande do Sul. Moisture conditions remain generally favorable for soybeans and winter (safrinha) corn in central and northeastern growing areas.
South Africa: Scattered showers and below-normal temperatures maintain overall favorable conditions for vegetative to reproductive corn in the main commercial farming areas.
Canada: Still no sign of life. Canucks flying south to escape cold and tour farms ☺
