Agronomist Notes

The weather last week was perfect with showers at night, high humidity and cool day time temperatures. It certainly increased water use efficiencies and generated more bushels as each day passed. I spent the end of the week touring around an Australian Nuffield Scholar to a few key producers in the area. I learned from local sources that urea has gone up by $50 a tonne since I last mentioned it to $410 a tonne. Those who bought urea a few weeks ago have just made 10% on their purchase! It looks like urea prices have bottomed but potash may still climb back to $600 a tonne so I’m told.

The cool, semi-wet week has increased the risk for leaf diseases in the late seeded crops coming into flag leaf. I would be cautious in applying a fungicide on late crops and further delay maturity. Disease pressure had better warrant it. On the insect side, I’ve seen very little pressure with no fields requiring control at this time. The current weather conditions have kept insect activity at bay for the time being.

In this week’s issue, I’d like to discuss some of the biggest limiting factors in our production systems and how to address them. Next, we’ll look at the effects of equipment traffic on compaction and how it relates to protein levels in wheat and why high nutrient levels in soils don’t equal high yields.  We’ll also discuss crop variability you don’t see from the ground and what tools we can use to improve our diagnostics. Finally, Bruce Love of Preferred Carbon will give us a reason to treat carbon as a commodity and not just found money. We’ll finish with technical and fundamental grain market news. Have a great week. SL

Agronomy

Crop staging area (Calgary to Drumheller to Three Hills) as of July 14th

Seeded	April 23-31	May 1-7	May 8-15
Wheat	flowering	Heads emerged	heads emerging
Canola	70% bloom	50% bloom	20% bloom
Barley	watery dough	heads emerged	heads emerging
Peas	late-flower	mid-flower	early flower

This Week in Scouting

• Continue monitoring for cabbage seedpod weevils in late seeded canola.
• Continue important post herbicide efficacy checks.
• Continue scouting for leaf diseases in late seeded cereal crops. Recent moisture has improved yield prospects and disease potential.
• Attend ICM field school at Olds College on Wednesday, July 15th. Yours truly will be speaking.

What’s the biggest limiting factor in our crop production system?

Did you know that 95% of what a plant needs is a combination of carbon, water and oxygen? The remaining 5% of needs are for nutrients. Think about that for a second then ask yourself, where do I focus the most attention when trying to achieve higher yields? I would guess that most would say fertilizer, fungicides, insecticides, genetics and not one of us would say carbon, water or oxygen. We spend all of our energy trying to maximize 5% of what our plants need and yet we completely ignore the other 95%!

So where does this bring us? What can we do to increase the level of carbon, water and oxygen in our soils? Here’s my take on what we need to focus on to take yields to the next level:

1. Carbon
   1. Ditch the heavy harrows and start with managing residue better instead of building equipment to handle or fix poor residue management skills. Develop a residue management system that spreads a thin layer of residue across the top of the soil surface while maintaining tall stubble. The only way to achieve this is through controlled traffic farming coupled with inter-row seeding and RTK guided autosteer.
   2. Include crop rotations with high carbon content. Winter wheat has the potential to add huge amounts of soil carbon given the long growing period and large root mass it leaves behind. Basically all cereals like barley, triticale, wheat, and grass forage seed crops are adequate but winter cereals are better.
   3. Include legumes when possible. Legumes do not add a lot of carbon but they do add a season long release of nitrogen which is necessary to cycle carbon throughout the growing season.    
2. Water
   1. Reduce compaction from wheel traffic through larger wheel footprints on all machinery or move to controlled traffic. Reduced compaction increases water infiltration rates and improves water use efficiencies because essentially, plants don’t have to suck water through a micro-straw to get at it. Think about the effort it requires when you try to suck a thick milkshake through a narrow straw- your cheeks hurt and the reward is minimal. Similarly, that’s what we force our plants to do when we pack the soil with our equipment, leaving very few channels for water to flow freely.
   2. Leave residue on the surface to keep ground and roots cool which reduces transpiration. Residue also acts as a buffer to absorb compaction caused by rain which leads to soil crusting.  
3. Oxygen
   1. Pay close attention to soil structure. Soil structure is the key to reducing the energy requirements of a plant to take up oxygen and water. The goal is to provide a soil environment where oxygen, water and nutrients can flow freely.
   2. Rotate crops with fibrous roots (wheat) and tap roots (canola).
   3. Eliminate compaction from wheel traffic. 

Photo source: Michael Eyres, Forward Scout, Australia

Do you struggle with low protein when soil test results reveal adequate nutrients?

Many producers struggle with low protein levels (less than 12%) in spring wheat, in spite of adding 80 to 90lbs of nitrogen per acre with average to above average yields. After measuring soil compaction across seeding, spraying and harvesting equipment this year, I suspect the poor nitrogen use efficiency may be caused in part by soil compaction. In fact, research has found significantly lower protein levels in wheat on spring and fall compacted soils (Voorhees et al., 1985). Significantly lower protein percentages were found on the spring-compacted soils (12.9%) and the fall and spring compacted (12.7%) treatments compared to the non-compacted treatment (13.6%). That’s almost a full percentage difference in protein!

Let’s do the math quickly on the protein levels. The difference between the CWB PRO for No.1 13.5% protein and No.1 12.5% protein is $0.21 a bushel. With an average wheat crop, you’re looking at a $9.00 to $12.00 per acre revenue increase just by reducing the compaction from your soils. Not something to ignore, is it? 

The majority of our nitrogen and/or nutrient mineralization comes from the aerobic zone within the top few inches of our soil. It is also the zone where we place our nitrogen fertilizer. Compaction basically removes the oxygen from the soil and creates an environment where mineralization cannot occur and nitrogen gasses off in the form of nitrous oxide through denitrification. So really, all that money you spend on additional nitrogen to increase protein goes up in smoke. 

Just how significant is soil compaction in our cropping system today? Well, I estimate that by the time you’ve finished spraying in crop, you will have wheel tracked or compressed roughly 30% to 35% of any given field. Add in a fungicide treatment at flag leaf and you’ll be close to 40%. Some producers also, heavy harrowed this spring to break up straw which would add another 5% to 10% bringing the total level of compaction to 50% up to the flag leaf stage! We haven’t even discussed the compaction caused by last year’s harvest traffic. Bottom line, one of the most harmful and completely overlooked impediments to our crop production systems is wheel traffic. 

As I see it, we have three options:

1. Footprint. Focus on the reducing the footprint of all field equipment beginning with sprayers, 4WD’s, air carts, combines and grain carts. Next, completely remove the use of tandems and B-trains from the field; the worst compaction offenders.      
2. Deep ripping. I’m not a fan of this option but it is available. I believe you can rent a deep ripper for roughly $17/ac plus fuel and tractor which would be roughly $30 an acre minimum. This option does not solve the problem, takes a lot of time and diesel and is only a temporary fix. 
3. Controlled Traffic. Look at setting up controlled traffic to minimize compaction to specific locations in the field. There is a lot of information and resources available to help you research its potential on your farm.

The most logical option in my mind is controlled traffic farming. I realize it’s a whole new concept for Western Canada and most dryland farming systems but I feel it has the most potential to take our yields and proteins to another level. Research has shown that even slight compaction in loam, clay and sandy soils result in a noticeable reduction in the amount of nitrates produced and nitrogen mineralized from organic matter. Wouldn’t you like to have your organic matter working for you? Remove the compaction from your fields and I guarantee you’ll find out. Food for thought. SL
  
Links:
http://www.controlledtrafficfarming.com/content/default.aspx

http://www.actfa.net/index.html

Sources:
Soil compaction: Causes and Consequences   http://www.extension.umn.edu/distribution/cropsystems/components/3115s01.html

The effect of soil compaction on nitrogen transformations in the soil: http://www.caf.wvu.edu/~forage/library/bulletins/516T.pdf

Doubt that your fields have variability? Hire a plane!

I’ve had the privilege of flying twice in the last two weeks to look at my fields and analyze things from above. I realize it was a tough spring and seeding systems were tested but I would estimate over 50% of the countryside had significant seeding, fertilizer or residue issues you would never see from the ground. Some fields look good from the road but are riddled with mistakes from operator error.

For example, the field pictured here is north of a hog lagoon where a custom applicator had at least one machine under delivering liquid manure. You can plainly see the streaks in crop colour north of the barns. Having travelled across this field on the quad, I didn’t notice the difference at the time of weed scouting. Thirty days later, we can see an obvious difference in crop colour and uniformity. What this points to is the use of high resolution NDVI imagery in-season to begin analyzing emergence differences. This tool could provide us with enough information to help form some corrective solutions for future years.

It’s amazing how many things get missed because they can’t be seen from the ground. We currently use NDVI through Farmers Edge to create management zones. Unfortunately, we currently don’t have the resolution required to capture the little things that go on during the growing season. However, I had an Australian Nuffield Scholar, Bruce Watson from New South Wales show me an example of the 0.8m resolution NDVI imagery his agronomist provides in season. It’s a very clear picture of NDVI imagery overlaid on top of a Google map. You can clearly see vegetation differences on the north third of the field versus the south two thirds. I feel this kind of imagery has a great fit for comparing seeding tools, seeding speeds, openers, fungicides, fertility trials, varietal maturity and so on. I’d love to have a tool like this at hand. SL
   

Carbon Market News

Carbon: a new commodity down on the farm

July 13, 2009- Carbon, or more accurately greenhouse gas (GHG) offsets often referred to as carbon credits may be the next commodity for agriculture to consider in its management planning and marketing. With the global warming debate pretty much over, we now turn to actions that can reduce the emissions of GHGs. With the need to take immediate action, a significant portion of the proposed legislation to limit GHGs is considering carbon credits as a way of facilitating both immediate action and providing the flexibility for large final emitters (LFEs) to adjust over time. What this does is create demand for carbon credits, or in other words, increases the willingness to pay someone else to reduce their GHGs. This potential market grows in significance almost daily as the world seems prepared to take action on climate change.

For us here in Canada, until we have federal policy that creates statutory reductions in GHG emissions, the market for carbon credits will remain largely defined by Provincial regulations. However, this appears to be set to change which would lead to a large amount of new demand almost overnight. Any wonder why we now see numerous carbon aggregators soliciting a farm’s carbon credits. This market is just beginning, and in our opinion should be treated much like a new commodity and not just simply handed over and treated as found money.

The carbon credit opportunity as a commodity can be seen in its similarities to the way a typical farm markets its grain or livestock. Just like these markets, carbon credit prices are volatile and are affected by supply and demand factors. Often farmers subscribe to commodity news services, study charts, pour over market reports, and even hire professional help to assist in making current marketing decisions. It would seem odd then that a farmer would turn over all marketing decisions in this new commodity, which in many ways is similar to the markets they all ready participate in. One possible reason for this today is the lack of market information, or the willingness to understand a new market. Whatever the reason and as more carbon market information becomes available, the farmer shouldn’t miss the opportunity to learn just what it is they are selling.

Reference: Bruce Love, Preferred Carbon
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author only and are not intended to represent financial advice.

Market News

Fundamental Analysis

World Production in Million Metric Tonnes  

	Production			Ending Stocks			Ending Stocks
	2007-08	Jul-09	Change	2007-08	Jul-09	Change	5 Year Avg
Rapeseed	48.4	55.4	14%	3	4.5	45%	4.6
Barley	133.2	142.1	7%	18	27.7	53%	25.7
Wheat	610.6	656.0	7%	119	182.6	53%	138.6
Corn	792.3	789.8	0%	128	139.2	9%	125.9
Soybeans	220.9	243.0	10%	53	51.0	-4%	54

Source: USDA, July 13, 2009

Technical Indicators

I have set up these weekly updates to include market entry indicators to help you improve the timing of your grain marketing. Also, I added market trend indicators to give you a sense of the short and long term market trends.

Canola – November Futures
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Wheat – December Futures
Insert chart
Barley – Oct Futures
Insert chart
Canadian Dollar – September futures
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Producer Crop and Climate Updates

Ukraine: “I’ve been informed that yields in Ukraine are as follows. The winter wheat harvest is complete and the final yield was 4,915T/ha or 72 bushels per acre. The winter barley yield was 5,632T/ha or 105 bushels per acre. The spring barley which is currently being harvested is running approximately 4.5 T/ha or 83 bushels per acre. Rainfall including snow melt was 515 mm for the season or 20 inches total.” Jean Paul Kihm, France

International Crop and Weather News

Western Canada: General moderate to heavy rains fell across Western Canada last week, further stabilizing crop conditions. Temperatures were below normal for the second consecutive week, raising concerns about slow crop development. The heaviest rains occurred in northern Alberta and southwestern Saskatchewan. More rains are needed to boost subsoil moisture levels, especially in parts of north-central Alberta, northwestern Manitoba and northeastern Saskatchewan.

United States: Moderate rains (50-100 mm) fell in Illinois and Missouri, temporarily delaying harvest activities for the SRW crop. Moderate rains also fell in northern Nebraska and across South Dakota, alleviating dryness concerns for crops in the region. Most of the remaining spring wheat growing area received light rains, with the exception of the border regions with Canada that received heavier amounts. There was no significant rainfall reported in the PNW this week. A cold front dropped temperatures in the Northern Plains, Cornbelt, and Northeastern regions 2 to 4 degrees Celsius below normal. The remainder of the country had above normal temperatures. Temperatures have been in the mid-thirties in the PNW.

The PNW cereals are mostly heading, so the high temperatures and lack of rains will drop yields, particularly in Washington. The below normal conditions in the Cornbelt are not beneficial for corn and soybeans that are already delayed by late planting and cool temperatures. Winter wheat harvest is now 56 per cent complete compared to the five year average of 59 per cent complete. Desert durum harvest is 70 per cent complete, compared to the average of 82 per cent.

Argentina: Light to moderate rains (10-15 mm) fell along the eastern areas of Argentina, with amounts reaching 50-100 mm in the south-east cereal growing areas. For the rest of the country, dryness continued last week. Daily high temperatures were in the upper-teens in the south and the twenties in the north. Light frosts continued in the south. The rains have stabilized crop conditions in Buenos Aires, but the rest of the regions are in serious need of moisture. Overall, seeding continues to be negatively impacted by the lack of rain.

Brazil: Rains continued across the Parana, Santa Catarina, and Mato Grosso do Sul during the past week. Precipitation amounts were generally 20 to 30 mm, but exceeded 100 mm in western Parana and Mato Grosso do Sul. Rio Grande do Sul, which accounted for 35 per cent of wheat production last year, remained very dry. In June, this region received less than 50 per cent of normal precipitation. Temperatures were normal to slightly above normal with no frost. Daily highs were in the low-twenties in the south, while further north, daily highs were in the low thirties. Crops in north are heading, while the remaining seeding continues in the far south. The recent rains have compensated for the below average precipitation at the start of the season. In general crop conditions are favourable, but the lack of rain in Rio Grande do Sul will reduce yields in that area.

Australia: Rains continued with over the cereal-producing regions, ranging from 5 to 20 mm. Portions of central NSW, South Australia, and Victoria received 25 to 50 mm. The past week's rain did fall in the previously dry portion of Western Australia. In Western Australia, temperatures were normal with highs in the upper-teens. In eastern Australia, temperatures were slightly above normal with daily highs in the low-twenties. There are a few areas yet to be seeded in Western Australia, but the vast majority of seeding is complete. The recent rains have been very beneficial for crops, which generally range from tillering to the jointing stage.

Western Europe: Scattered light rains (10-25+ mm) continued to maintain adequate moisture in northern Europe last week, which favoured filling grains. Temperatures were 3 to 7 degrees Celsius above normal across Western Europe and 3 to 9 degrees above normal in Scandinavia. Daily high temperatures were mostly between 20 and 30 degrees Celsius across northern Europe. The light rains in southern France caused some delays in the durum and wheat harvest.

A second week of moderate to heavy downpours (25-100 mm) in southern and central Italy lowered the durum and soft wheat quality and delayed the harvest. Dry conditions in Spain boosted the harvest activities further northward. Temperatures were slightly above normal in Spain and were normal in Italy and Greece. Daily highs ranged between 20 to 30 degrees Celsius in Italy and Greece and 30 to 40 degrees Celsius in Spain.

Eastern Europe: Moderate rains (50-100 mm) continued across most of central Europe and the Balkans last week. Lesser amounts fell northward, with scattered light rain reported in the Baltic region. Heavy rains (100-200 mm) saturated fields in western Belarus. Temperatures were 3 to 7 degrees Celsius above normal across the region in the northern regions. Daily highs were generally between 20 to 30 degrees Celsius across the region. Last week’s conditions led to waterlogged fields in some areas and pushed the growth stage of wheat development in the north. The rains caused harvest delays in southern regions that are in the middle of the wheat and barley harvest.

Russia: Light to moderate rains (5-25 mm) helped maintain soil moisture levels for spring wheat in the Central District and parts of the Volga District last week. The main winter wheat growing areas were mostly dry with only scattered showers falling. The harvest is progressing across the Southern District, and the maturation of the winter cereals is moving northward. Below normal temperatures were widespread across the Volga District and eastern portions of the Central District. Daily maximums ranged between 25 to 35 degrees Celsius in the Central and Volga Districts, and 30 to 40 degrees Celsius in the Southern District.

Light to moderate rains (10-50+ mm) continued to fall in much of Siberia and eastern Urals. Unseasonably cool temperatures prevailed in eastern Russia, with deviation 1 to 7 degrees below normal values. Daily highs were generally in the low to mid-twenty degrees Celsius range. No overnight frost was reported last week in the Russian spring grain region. Last week’s conditions generally favoured the spring crops across the country. The continued cool and wet conditions in Siberia and the Urals may cause some localized flooding and waterlogged soils. Unless the area receives seasonal temperatures and some precipitation, quality concerns and harvest problems will emerge. Longer-term dryness in the Volga region is still a concern and more rain is needed to boost winter and spring cereal prospects. Dry and hot weather boosted the maturing winter wheat and harvest activity in the Southern District.

Ukraine: Light rains (5-25 mm) fell in the western Ukraine last week, while the eastern portion of the country received only light scattered showers. Temperatures were 3 to 5 degrees Celsius above normal across the country. Daily highs were between 25 and 30 degrees Celsius in the far west, but were 30 to 35 degrees Celsius across the rest of the country. The rains were beneficial to spring sown crops in the northern and western regions as the temperatures rose, but caused further delays to the winter cereal harvest in the south.

Kazakhstan: Light rains (5-25 mm) fell in eastern Kazakhstan last week, while southern and western regions received only light scattered showers. Where the rains fell they maintained moisture for the spring grains. Temperatures remained below normal in much of the country. Daily high temperatures were mostly between 30 and 35 degrees Celsius, and reached the upper thirties in the southern areas. Overnight lows were above the freezing mark in the all growing areas.

China: Rainfall amounts varied across China last week, with light to moderate precipitation falling across the north from Mongolia into Manchuria (10 100 mm). The south received moderate to heavy typhoon associated rains (100 200+mm). In between those two regions it was dry across the North China Plain and Yangtze Valley. Temperatures in the center of the country were 3 to 7 degrees Celsius above normal, with high's reaching into the low forties in Hebei. North and south of this region, temperatures were close to normal.

The irrigation demands for summer sown crops in central regions continues to be high because of the very hot and dry weather. The rains and more seasonal temperatures in the north were beneficial for soybean and corn.

India/Pakistan: Monsoon rains have begun to advance over the past week, and combined with isolated thundershowers, have led to precipitation amounts exceeding 100 mm across most of India. Northwest India, along with Pakistan, received isolated showers with amounts up to 25 mm. The monsoon is anticipated to continue its progress at a more normal pace over the upcoming week. Temperatures were above normal across much of India and northern Pakistan. The rains will boost soil moisture for summer crops.

South Africa: South Africa was mostly dry over the past week, and any substantial rains were isolated to the Eastern Cape (10 50 mm). Temperatures were above normal in the west and below normal in the east. Daily highs ranged between 15 and 25 degrees Celsius. Overnight lows along the coast were above freezing, but below the freezing mark inland. No rains fell in the Free State continuing the need for more moisture.

North Africa: North Africa continued hot and dry weather last week. Temperatures were slightly above normal across the growing areas. Daily high temperatures were mostly between 30 and 40 degrees Celsius. The harvest is progressing rapidly under these conditions in all countries in the region.

Iran: Scattered showers (up to 10 mm) in northern Iran provided some moisture to the remaining filling wheat. Mostly dry conditions allowed the harvest to progress in the remainder of the country last week. Temperatures were normal to below normal across the growing areas. Daily high temperatures ranged from 30 to 40 degrees Celsius depending on the region.

Turkey: Widespread light rains (5-25+ mm) fell in the north and central growing areas, helping the spring and summer crops. Dry conditions continued in the southern portion of the country last week, pushing the grain crops into maturity. Temperatures were 1 to 3 degrees Celsius above normal in the north and normal in the south. Daily highs were mostly between 30 and 35 degrees Celsius in much of the country, and reached the forties in the extreme south. The harvest activities are progressing further northward and westward.

Source: CWB