Agronomist Notes

Well, July weather finally began on Saturday with temperatures reaching into the low 30’s. I noticed the early seeded canola fields around home began to drop petals prematurely. Thankfully, they’re not forecasting 30 degree weather this week or we’d see a significant reduction in grain fill potential. On the insect front, I’ve yet to find anything even remotely close to threshold in canola with only the occasional lygus bug caught in my net. On the disease front, I’ve seen a significant increase in net blotch and scald in barley, 700 acres of which I recommended a fungicide application.

In this week’s issue, we’ll look at the economics of applying a fungicide in barley using some recent information and decisions we’ve had to make. Next, I’ll give you an update on crop maturity to give you an idea of harvest timing using growing degree days. Next, we’ll look at how variable rate technology has a fit in fungicide programs, even in a dry year. Also, we’ll discuss residue issues and why we’re going to need a pre-harvest glyphosate program this fall. Bruce Love of Preferred Carbon will give us his take on why agriculture should be seen as a solution to climate change and not the problem. We’ll finish up with technical and fundamental grain market news with a special photo section on the recent harvest in Ukraine. Have a great week.  

Agronomy

Crop Staging Area (Calgary to Drumheller to Three Hills) as of July 20th.

Seeded	April 23-31	May 1-7	May 8-15
Wheat	watery dough	watery dough	early-flower
Canola	late-flower	mid-flower	early-flower
Barley	watery dough	watery dough	heads emerged
Peas	end of flowering	mid-flower	mid-flower

This Week in Scouting

• Continue scouting for insects in canola.
• Re-check barley fields seeded first two weeks of May for leaf disease.
• Check re-seeded barley planted in late May or early June for leaf disease.
• Price out glyphosate for this falls pre-harvest treatments

Recheck barley fields for leaf disease

The ideal weather conditions during the first two weeks of July have increased both yield and disease potential. I’ve rechecked a number of barley fields for leaf disease and have recommended the fungicide Tilt on 8 fields (750 acres out of a total of 6,000) to control net blotch.

So, how does one justify spraying a fungicide with so little rain up until now? Field histories and current conditions led me to make the recommendation. Here’s what I considered for the 8 fields at risk:

1. Received soft hail 10 days ago that bruised leaves and stems, leaving the plants open to infection.
2. Roughly 1.5 inches of rain has accumulated in the last 14 days for a total of 8 inches all season including stored soil moisture.
3. There was dew on the leaves at 1pm in the afternoon.
4. Some fields were seeded barley on barley.
5. Disease pressure was moderate on the bottom and middle third of the plant. 
6. Plants are shorter this year with the cool weather, which increases the risk of disease moving up to the top leaves.   
7. Spotty showers and higher humidity are forecast for the next 7 days. 

I also ran the numbers for each field to see if the return would justify the cost of spraying.

Steve’s (not so) quick math:

Estimated yield potential today: 8 inches of total moisture including soil × 8 bu/ac/inch = 64 bu/ac
Cost of fungicide application: $7.50 ac (air) + $7.25 ac (Tilt) = $14.75 ac
Breakeven bu/ac: $14.75 ac ÷ $3.25 bu = $4.53 bu/ac
Breakeven yield loss: 4.53 bu/ac in yield loss ÷ 64 bu/ac estimated yield × 100 = 7.09 % 
To justify a 2:1 return on the fungicide investment there must be (7.09% x 2) = 14.18% yield loss

Potential leaf disease estimate: Penultimate leaf = 30% and flag leaf = 15%
Yield loss equation: % disease on penultimate leaf × 0.66 + % disease on flag leaf ÷ 2 = % yield loss
Estimated yield loss = 30% infection × 0.66 + 15% × 0.5 ÷ 2 = 13.65% yield loss

Therefore, I estimate the potential for a 13.65% yield loss ($28.39 ac) from leaf disease which easily justifies a return on the $14.75 acre fungicide investment. I encourage you to have a second look at your fields to see if you have more yield potential than you think and whether disease pressure has increased over the last two weeks. SL

Predicted harvest dates for 2009

As I’ve mentioned before, all plant functions, such as evapotranspiration, photosynthesis, water and nutrient absorption and transport, enzyme activity, and other biological and chemical activities are regulated by temperature. For this reason, the development of the crop is more closely related to the amount of heat the crop is exposed to than calendar days. Other factors such as moisture, day length, nutrition and variety also play a role, but they generally have less influence.

Canola requires 1,432 to 1,557 growing degree-days (GDD’s) to reach an optimum swathing stage of 40% seed colour change. Hard red spring wheat is similar to canola and requires 1,538 to 1,665 GDD’s to reach maturity. Barley needs 1,269 to 1,522 GDD’s. Surprisingly, peas need 1,527 to 1,686 GDD’s to reach 90% seed colour change.

To predict harvest dates, let’s do the math for wheat, barley and canola seeded near Three Hills, AB, on May 1. The climate data provided on http://www.farmzone.com/ shows we’ve received 725 GDD’s since May 1. The average over the last 10 days has been 13.8 GDD per day. To calculate the predicted harvest date for our crops this fall, we’ll add a few more GDD to compensate for the typically warmer, late July-August period to an estimated 15 GDD per day.

Let’s finish the calculation:
Canola: 1,432 - 725 ÷ 15 = 47 days until swathing (September 7)
Wheat: 1,538 - 725 ÷ 15 = 54 days until maturity (September 12)
Barley: 1,269 - 725 ÷ 15 = 36 days until maturity (August 25)
Peas: 1527 - 725 ÷ 15 = 53 days until 90% seed colour change (September 11)

So there you have it. I encourage you to keep track of growing degree-days to help you estimate swath and harvest timing this fall. If your crop maturity is lagging behind, I’ve been recommending a pre-harvest dry down program to help speed up maturity. You may want to source glyphosate now to avoid any potential shortages in case everyone else has the same idea. SL

Check out http://www.farmzone.com/. Find your area and click on “Historical” data.

Variable rate technology has potential for use in fungicide applications

The dry weather in 2009 along with manmade issues has created a high degree of variability in production potential across each field. With a glance you can easily see areas with salinity, heavy residue, sandy soil or knolls which may show a yield potential lower than 20 bushels an acre, yet you walk into low areas and may find a surprising 50 to 60 bushel yield potential. In the case where disease may be an issue, many would just walk away because they have no way of quantifying how many acres still have decent yield potential. That is until now!

The use of variable rate technology and NDVI imagery in-season has given us a new tool to measure productivity and, with a little ground-truthing, an excellent base map for producing variable rate fungicide maps. With the use of in-season NDVI imagery, you could begin to quantify how many acres of a field still have excellent yield potential, even in a dry year. Then you could treat those acres separately from the poor areas and apply a fungicide if disease pressure warranted it.

If you look at the NDVI picture shown here, the areas with the highest yield potential are coloured in olive, dark green and light green and I would estimate a 50 bushel yield potential in these areas with a potential for a 10% yield loss from septoria/tan spot complex. These higher yielding areas add up to 52.39 acres on this 168 acre field or 31%. So what if we could apply a fungicide to control leaf disease in the areas that can justify a decent return on the fungicide investment? 

Let’s run the numbers on the field to determine the costs of applying a variable rate fungicide program.
Before we begin, I must add that we have already applied a variable rate fertilizer program to this field through the help of Farmer’s Edge. After setting up the initial VR nutrient prescription map, I now have access to all available in-season NDVI images. The cost to the grower for my time to develop a new zone map, ground truth it and fungicide prescription map would be $2.00 an acre.

Fungicide prescription map: $2.00/ac
Fungicide cost: $7.25/ac
Application cost: $3.50/ac with farm’s JD 4930
Field size: 52.39 acres
Total cost of application: $2.00/ac + $7.25/ac + $3.50/ac = $12.75/ac

Wheel track damage: 4% wheel on 50 bushel yield = 1.8 bu/ac or $10.80/ac 
Estimated wheat price: $6.00/bu
Total cost of application including wheel tracks is $10.80 + $12.75 = $23.55/ac
Projected yield increase: 50 bu/ac x 15% yield loss = 7.5 bu/ac or $45.00/ac @ $6.00/bu
Profit per acre: $45.00 yield increase - $23.55 application cost = $21.45

Therefore, we could generate an additional $21.45 per acre on 52.39 acres or a just about a 2:1 return on investment. The net return across this 168 field works out to $6.68 an acre. Not a bad return, I’d say. The variable rate tool is just sitting there waiting for us to adopt it and I hope we’ll see more of it in the coming years. Next stop, pre-harvest dry down savings in peas, but that’s another story. SL

Get ready for pre-harvest glyphosate to avoid frost and green straw 

2009 has shaped up to be a very interesting year with many faults in our production systems showing up. It takes a cold, dry year to wake us up and realize that we all have areas to improve upon. Everyone’s a genius when it rains right after seeding. This year, it didn’t rain!

The picture you see here shows suppressed crop growth where canola swaths laid last year and the crop residue wasn’t spread evenly. The 2008 crop might have been 40 bushels and it was heavy harrowed after harvest. Today, all you can see is last year’s wheel tracks from the heavy harrowing and residue issues left behind the combine. If you do the math, the 4-foot strips across the field on the 25-foot swather works out to 16%. Let’s say the farmer has a 50% yield reduction in the heavy residue areas and he’s looking at a minimum 7.5% yield loss.

Looking at our own farm, we have residue issues too and although the wheat germinated and emerged evenly, the residue has delayed crop maturity by 7 to 10 days. We have just put ourselves at risk for frost damage and it could have been avoided.

I can’t stress enough how important it is to manage residue properly. I suspect producers will struggle with residue again this year but not because of volume. The variability in crop maturity will leave producers no choice but to begin harvest when 85% of the crop is ready and the other 15% of the straw is still green. Cutting, chopping and spreading green straw is difficult, tough on horsepower and usually fails to spread across a 30-foot header, rotary combine or not.

Techniques like using pre-harvest glyphosate to dry down grain and residue is a great way to control weeds, start harvest earlier and thrash straw easier, which leads to better residue spread. If done this fall, it’ll set you up nicely for 2010 when your crops emerge and mature evenly because you paid attention to residue management. Subsequently, you won’t have to rely on a pre-harvest dry down strategy then because you’ve actually fixed the problem and not stuck a costly pre-harvest band-aid on it. Get your pre-harvest program in place today. SL 

Carbon Market

Why agriculture should be an offset and not a regulation

July 21, 2009- While the world appears to be headed towards some form of greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction scheme, how we get there appears less certain. The struggle centers around who actually has to make the cuts. Hardly a sector of the economy is not affected, and if it’s related to fossil fuels, it’s going to hurt. So where does agriculture fit into all of this?

Agriculture is affected on several fronts, it’s a significant user of energy and other related inputs like fertilizer, so input costs are likely to increase. It’s also a significant emitter of GHGs, so it’s a tempting target for regulation directed to reducing GHGs. However, agriculture is also closely tied to food security and it has traditionally held a special place in public policy.

If the policy goal is to reduce GHGs, then agriculture may be well positioned to contribute to the reductions in a way that limits the affect on food production, and here are some of the reasons why:

1. Agriculture can be a significant source of GHG offsets. By making changes in management practices, agricultural managers can take actions to reduce GHG emissions, create carbon sinks, and even avoid GHG emissions in the first place. Ultimately, in terms of the environment, does it really matter who made the GHG reductions as long as they are made?
2. Agriculture would be costly to regulate. Unlike the large final emitters (LFEs) with monitoring solutions in place, monitoring agriculture would prove much more difficult. To oblige agriculture to reduce its emissions over time implies the need for monitoring and compulsory reporting. If agriculture could earn revenue by generating offsets, then an incentive would exist that is not contingent on monitoring and enforcement, but would encourage action.
3. Offset revenues in agriculture would assist in offsetting the higher costs of inputs affected by GHG reduction policy. The offsets market in turn provides the flexibility for LFEs to implement their GHG reductions over time with improved cost effectiveness.
4. Offsets in agriculture and in general encourage creativity in the reduction of GHG emissions, as opposed to regulations that increase costs.
5. Food, clothing, and shelter are essential parts of life. Therefore, public policy that negatively affects food, one of the essentials, should be avoided if possible.

Food security is one of the most recognized arguments for timely action on climate change. This is obvious from the direct linkage between our climate and the ability of agriculture to produce ample supplies of food. Regulating agriculture to reduce its GHG emissions is ironic to say the least.

Reference: Bruce Love, Preferred Carbon
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author only and are not intended to represent financial advice.

Market News

Fundamental Analysis

World Production in Million Metric Tonnes  

	Production			Ending Stocks			Ending Stocks
	2007-08	Jul-09	Change	2007-08	Jul-09	Change	5 Year Avg
Rapeseed	48.4	55.4	14%	3	4.5	45%	4.6
Barley	133.2	142.1	7%	18	27.7	53%	25.7
Wheat	610.6	656.0	7%	119	182.6	53%	138.6
Corn	792.3	789.8	0%	128	139.2	9%	125.9
Soybeans	220.9	243.0	10%	53	51.0	-4%	54

Source: USDA

Technical Indicators

I have set up these weekly updates to include market entry indicators to help you improve the timing of your grain marketing. Also, I added market trend indicators to give you a sense of the short and long term market trends.

Canola – November Futures
Insert chart
Wheat – December Futures
Insert chart
Barley – Oct Futures
Insert chart
Canadian Dollar – September futures
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International Crop Weather News

Western Canada: This past week brought more rain across most of the prairie region. The heaviest precipitation fell from Edmonton south to Red Deer and east to Coronation, with amounts reaching 40 to 80 mm. Medicine Hat and Swift Current regions also received 40 to 60 mm. Most other areas received 20 to 40 mm, which was still beneficial for the stage of development. Temperatures were 1 to 5 degrees Celsius colder than normal for this time of year. Only along the south did daytime highs reach into the upper-twenties, while most parts only reached the low-twenties. The rains did help to stabilize crop conditions, but came too late to allow crops to compensate for the poor start to the season. The rains were helpful in maintaining yields for crops in the heading or entering the filling stages, but are unlikely to appreciably increase average yields at this point in time.

United States: Moderate rains (50-100 mm) fell in Iowa and eastern South Dakota, but overall, rainfall amounts across the USA were close to normal. Light rains fell across the border regions of the Northern States, with only light showers reported in the PNW this week. The previous week’s cold front remains entrenched over the central and eastern U.S. Temperatures in the Northern Plains, Cornbelt, and Northeastern regions dropped 1 to 7 degrees Fahrenheit below normal. Nearly all crops remain delayed from the five-year average. The mostly cool, showery weather helped maintain yield potential, but corn and soybean crops need warmer temperatures to boost development. The concern regarding cereals in Washington remains, while other regions of the PNW are fair. SRW and HRW harvest is now 81 per cent complete, compared to the five-year average of 83 per cent complete. Winter wheat in the PNW is 4 per cent complete, which is the same as the average. Desert durum harvest is nearing completion under favourable weather.

Argentina: Moderate rains (10-50 mm) fell across northeastern and southeastern areas of Argentina last week. Amounts reached 50 to 100 mm in northern Buenos Aires and Corrientes. Much of the rest of the country received only scattered showers, while the parched Cordoba and Santa Fe received no precipitation. Warmer than normal temperatures caused daily high's to reach the twenties in all but the southern-most areas. Overnight temperatures continue to drop below freezing. The rains have stabilized crop conditions in the east and further planting will occur in Buenos Aires, but the rest of the region remains in serious need of general rainfall. Across the country seeding continues to be negatively impacted by the lack of rain.

Brazil: Rains continued across the south and south-east regions of Brazil last week. In Parana and Santa Catarina, precipitation amounts exceeded 100 mm, while other neighbouring areas generally received 25 to 100 mm. Rio Grande do Sul, which had recently been quite dry, received 30 to 60 mm. Temperatures were slightly above normal with daily highs in the low-twenties in the south, while further north, daily highs were in the low-thirties. Crops in the north are heading, while in the far south winter crops are emerging.

Australia: Showers continued over the southeastern cereal-producing regions this past week. Most areas received 10 to 30 mm, but towards the coast amounts ranged from 50 to 70 mm. New South Wales and Queensland were mostly dry, but currently have sufficient soil moisture reserves for vegetative cereal growth. The previous week's rain continued in Western Australia and is beneficial to growing conditions for vegetative crops. In Western Australia, temperatures were above normal with highs in the upper-teens, while eastern Australia reported temperatures in the low-twenties which is normal. The recent rains have been very beneficial for crops, which generally range from tillering to the jointing stage.

Western Europe: Scattered light rains (10-25+ mm) continued to maintain adequate moisture for the filling grains in northern Europe last week. Temperatures were close to normal across Western Europe, and slightly above normal in the Scandinavian growing areas. Daily high temperatures were mostly between 20 and 30 degrees Celsius across northern Europe. Lingering light to moderate rains (10-50 mm) continued to slow the harvest progress throughout central and northern Italy, while dry conditions prevailed in Spain and Greece. The dry conditions boosted the harvest pace and increased irrigation demand for the summer crops. Temperatures were close to normal across southern Europe. Daily highs ranged between 25 to 30 degrees Celsius in Italy, and 30 to 40 degrees Celsius in Spain and Greece.

Eastern Europe: Heavy rainfall (25-100 mm) across much of Eastern Europe last week disrupted the grain harvest in Central Europe and the Balkans, and fueled more concerns about the quality of harvest across Eastern Europe. This additional moisture favoured the corn crops in southern areas, and the filling crops in the northern countries. Temperatures were normal to slightly above normal across the region. Daily highs were generally between 20 to 30 degrees Celsius in the north and reached the low to mid-thirties in the south.

Russia: Scattered light rains (5-25 mm) caused minor harvest delays in the Southern District last week. Further north, light to moderate rains maintained adequate moisture for the heading spring wheat in the Central, Northwest, and Volga Districts, while the main winter wheat growing areas received scattered light rains (5-20 mm). Below normal temperatures spread across western Russia, except for the Southern District. Daily maximum’s ranged between 25 to 35 degrees Celsius in the Central and Volga Districts, and 30 to 40 degrees Celsius in the Southern District.

Light to moderate rains (10-50+ mm) continued to fall in much of Siberia and parts of the Urals, easing the short-term drought in eastern Urals. A warmer spell started to spread from Siberia toward the Urals, providing 1 to 5 degrees Celsius above seasonal temperatures. Last week’s conditions generally favoured the spring crops across the country and boosted the growth. However, most of the Ural region needs more moisture to replenish reserves and maintain current yield prospects. Dryness in the Volga region is still a concern and more rain is needed to boost winter and spring cereal prospects. Dry and hot weather boosted the maturing winter wheat and harvest activity in the Southern District.

Ukraine: Light to moderate rains (10-50+ mm) and locally heavier amounts covered most of the Ukraine last week. Temperatures were 1 to 3 degrees Celsius above normal across the country, with daily highs between 25 and 30 degrees Celsius in the west, and 30 to 35 degrees Celsius in the east. The rains were beneficial to spring sown crops in the northern and western regions as the temperatures rose, but caused further delays to the winter cereal harvest.

Kazakhstan: Scattered light rains (5-25 mm) fell in north-central Kazakhstan, while dry conditions prevailed in the remainder of the country last week. Temperatures were above normal in northern growing areas, which stressed the spring grains. Daily high temperatures reached 35 and 40 degrees Celsius in much of the country. More moisture is needed across the country to support the reproductive spring wheat and barley.

China: Rainfall amounts varied across China last week, with light to moderate precipitation falling across the north from Mongolia into Manchuria (10-100 mm). Rains returned to the North China Plain, easing the moisture shortage and reducing irrigation demands. The south received showers and light rain, easing the excess moisture from the previous week. Temperatures were in the thirties over most of the country, with the exception of the far north-east where temperatures were in the upper-twenties. The reduced rains in the northeast allowed saturated fields to dry-out slightly. The increased rains in the North China Plain boosted crop growth and eased irrigation pressure.

India/Pakistan: Monsoon rains have continued to weakly advance the past week, with heavy rains reported across central India (50-200 mm). Along the coasts, very heavy rains dumped over 400 mm during the past week. Rainfall in the south-east and northwest extending into Pakistan reported only light showers. Temperatures were above normal across the north-west of India and Pakistan, with highs in the forties. Concern has mounted that an El Niño weather pattern has disrupted the current monsoon, and water levels will remain critically low. Where the rains fell, it will boost soil moisture for summer crops. The lack of rain in the northwest was amplified by the very hot temperatures, leading to further dropping of soil moisture levels.

South Africa: Scattered light rains (10-25 mm) fell in part of the Western Cape, while the remainder of the Western Cape and the Southern Free State received less than 10 mm last week. Normal temperatures prevailed in the Free State, but warmer than normal temperatures boosted the development of the tillering wheat in the Western Cape. Daily highs ranged from 15 to 30 degrees Celsius. Overnight lows were above freezing in the Western Cape, but just below the freezing mark in the Free State. More rains are needed across the country, especially in Free State where soil moisture levels are very low.

North Africa: Dry and hot weather continued to favour the harvest activities in North Africa last week. Temperatures were slightly above normal across the growing areas. Daily high temperatures were mostly between 30 and 40 degrees Celsius. The harvest is progressing rapidly under these conditions in all regions.

Iran: Dry conditions across western Iran allows the harvest to progress further north in the region last week. Temperatures were normal to below normal across the growing areas. Daily high temperatures ranged from 30 to 40 degrees Celsius depending on the region.

Turkey: Scattered light rains (5-25+ mm) fell in central Turkey, benefiting summer crops, while dry conditions prevailed in the remaining growing areas last week. Temperatures were 1 to 3 degrees Celsius above normal across the country. Daily high’s were mostly between 30 and 35 degrees Celsius in much of the country, and reached the upper-thirties in the southeast and the west. The grain harvest activities are progressing further northward and westward.

Source: CWB, July 15, 2009

Harvest in Ukraine

Jean Paul Kihm, a regular contributor to our Producer Crop and Weather News section, recently emailed me some of his photos of the harvest going on in the Ukraine. Jean Paul is a part owner of a corporate farm based in France.