Agronomist Notes

What a cooker we had last week with temperatures in the low 30’s. With very little sub-soil moisture, the hot, dry weather has really taken a toll on crops. Fortunately, a few areas received a 1/4 to 1 inch of rain on Sunday morning. I can’t believe the dramatic difference in yield potential from one field to the next, and one area to the next. It’s easy to spot a 40 bushel wheat crop sitting next to 20 bushel wheat crop and the difference in many cases is not only due to moisture. To date, precipitation totals range from 2 to 5 inches with yield potential all over the map.

Overall, insect pressure has been nil. I haven’t found anything remotely close to threshold for lygus bugs or diamondback moths in canola. Wheat midge has shown up in the last week, but thankfully the majority of our crops are well past the flowering stage and out of the damage range. Those with late wheat crops not yet into flowering will need to monitor for wheat midge closely. There have been reports of stripe rust east of Calgary and in the southern portion of the province. I haven’t seen any traces of it in the winter wheat or CPS wheat varieties in the areas I cover. I would keep an eye on late seeded CPS wheat crops and monitor them for pressure.

This week we’ll quickly look at an interesting physiological term that could help us improve herbicide timing. We’ll also discuss why today is the best time to look at land you wish to purchase or rent in the future. Next, we’ll look at stripe rust and wheat midge facts to refresh your memories on thresholds and control options. Last, Bruce Love of Preferred Carbon will give us an update on our provincial technology fund and we’ll close with technical, fundamental and international crop weather news. Have a great week. SL

Agronomy

Crop Staging Area (Calgary to Drumheller to Three Hills) as of July 28.

Seeded	April 23-31	May 1-7	May 8-15
Wheat	milky dough	watery dough	watery dough
Canola	early pod-fill	late-flower	mid-flower
Barley	milky dough	watery dough	watery dough
Peas	pod fill	end of flower	mid-flower

This Week in Scouting

• Continue scouting for lygus bugs and diamond back moths in canola.
• Monitor wheat midge in fields that haven’t finished flowering.
• Monitor stripe rust in wheat fields, especially winter wheat and CPS wheat.
• Begin pre-harvest field analysis and start planning your pre-harvest dry down strategies.

Predicting leaf emergence for better herbicide timing

The window for spraying herbicides is a function of leaf staging. Let’s delve a little deeper into that for a moment. The number of growing degree days (GDDs) it takes for a leaf to fully emerge is called a phyllochron. Leaf emergence depends on temperature, water, day length and plant genetics. Most wheat cultivars have phyllochrons of approximately 80-100°C days. For example, at a mean daily temperature of 10°C it would take approximately seven to eight days for a new wheat leaf to fully emerge.

If you look back at my growth stage reports over the month of June,  we basically grew one leaf per week. Looking at the historical weather data for June, we averaged 80 GDD’s each week which is slightly colder than normal. Typically we’ll see a leaf emerge every three to four days in the month of June during warm moist conditions. This year, June was colder than normal and crop progress was slowed dramatically to one leaf every seven days.

We could have done without the frosts but this spring but the cooler weather kept our herbicide application window open longer than normal and we rarely felt rushed. It seems every year producers are forced to switch herbicides at the last minute because of rain or wind delays or else they end up spraying a herbicide beyond the registered crop stage. The consequence of spraying products like Puma Super or Everest past the registered crop stage can be a reduction in maturity and sometimes yield. 

The use of phyllochron’s to predict leaf emergence can be a handy tool to improve our herbicide timing in the future. For example, if you had a barley crop at the 4 leaf 1 tiller stage that you wanted to spray with Puma Super and you could predict when the barley would reach the critical 5 leaf 2 tiller stage in 7 days, you could prioritize which fields get sprayed first and avoid the costly mistake of spraying too late. Once again, timing is one of the critical variables we can control in production system. I’ve always used a three to four day rule of thumb to predict the emergence of each leaf. Using the phyllochron measure will bring me even closer to ideal herbicide timing. SL

Now is the time to scope out land for purchase or rent

If you’re looking to rent or purchase land in the near future, this is the time to investigate the production potential of each field. At this moment in time, you can easily see the dramatic differences in yield potential from one field to the next and the variability within each field. Having an understanding of production potential will definitely give you an advantage when it comes time to valuing the land or rent you’re willing to pay. Looking at stubble while you drive across a piece of land in the fall gives you limited information on the field’s production potential. That’s why I say now is the time to investigate.  

Here are the top five things I would look for when considering a piece of land today:

1. Look for areas with supressed or shortened crop growth. This is the best time of year for showing weaknesses in management or natural causes. Take a best guess at how many acres are effected and whether you can determine whether its man made or natural like sandy soil or salinity.
2. Take a walk in and look for wild oat carcasses. If the pressure is severe, you’ll see it! Heavy wild oat pressure can add another $15 to $20 an acre if you have to spray twice and even more if some escape and rob yield.
3. Hire a plane for a few hundred dolllars and scope the land from the air. It’s amazing what you can see from above.
4. Compare uniformity and yield potential to the surrounding fields. How would you rate the field compared to those that around it? If it’s poor, is the cause due to management or is it natural?
5. Look at plant health across the field. You can see how well the field has been managed by observing plant health.

So often we find ourselves driving across stubble fields in the fall or winter wondering if we should rent a particular piece of land. When you’re moving into a new area and you don’t know the fields well, big things get missed when all you can look at is last season’s residue. I realize that logistics and competition play a big role in determining price, but having an idea of production potential may give you the advantage to know when to bid higher or walk away. SL

Stripe Rust identification and control

Identification and yield loss
Stripe rust can be identified as small orange-yellow coloured pustules forming in vertical lines along wheat leaves.This disease can result in yield losses of 10 to 70% in susceptible varieties and total yield loss has been reported when severe epidemics occur. Like other leaf and stem diseases, yield losses are roughly proportional to the plant area infected. Yield losses are generally most severe when the infection occurs prior to heading. Historically stripe rust has not been of economic significance in western Canada but incidences of the disease have been increasing over the past 4 or 5 growing seasons.

Stripe Rust ID: http://www.oznet.k-state.edu/path-ext/factSheets/Wheat/Wheat%20Stripe%20Rust.asp
Stripe Rust photo: http://www.ars.usda.gov/Main/docs.htm?docid=9918

Monitoring
If you are growing a susceptible variety, it is important to scout every few days starting with the bottom leaves. Know the visual symptoms of stripe rust and monitor fields in the morning when new spores are distinctly yellow. See stripe rust tolerance ratings below.

Threshold
Spraying should be done when stripe rust reaches 1% of flag leaf area and before it reaches 5% of flag leaf area. Once this infection level is reached, stripe rust becomes very difficult to control. The period of infection to the release of spores is as little as 8 days, which can result in multiple generations per growing season.

Growth stage
Apply fingicide at flag leaf or before wheat has flowered. Fungicide treatments made past the flowering stage rarely provide an economical benefit.

Fungicide Options:
Folicur: 118 ml/ac 
Quilt: 300 ml/ac
Headline: 160 ml/ac
Tilt: 202 ml/ac
Stratego: 200 ml/ac

Stripe Rust Tolerance Ratings
HRSW: http://www.agric.gov.ab.ca/app95/loadCrop?action=display&id=58
CPS: http://www.agric.gov.ab.ca/app95/loadCrop?action=display&id=56
HRWW: http://www.agric.gov.ab.ca/app95/loadCrop?action=display&id=59
Frequently asked questions: http://www1.agric.gov.ab.ca/$department/deptdocs.nsf/all/faq11389 

Source: AAFRD

Wheat midge identification and control

There have been a few reports of wheat midge appearance around the Acme area last week although the majoirty of wheat is well past flowering and the potential for damage is minimal. Those of you who have late seeded wheat that hasn’t quite flowered yet, you are susceptible to damage if they appear.

Identification
The adult midge is a very small, fragile orange fly about half the size of a mosquito, approximately 2 to 3 mm long. Two black eyes cover much of its head. The midge has three pairs of legs that are long relative to its body size. Its wings are oval shaped, transparent and fringed with fine hairs. Adults emerge from the pupal stage in late June or early July. During the day, adults remain within the crop canopy where conditions are humid. In the evening, females become active at the top of the wheat canopy, laying eggs on the newly emerged wheat heads. Females live for less than seven days and lay an average of 80 eggs.

Damage Potential
One midge per 4-5 wheat heads can decrease yield around 15%. They can also reduce the grade of your wheat. If there is more than one midge per 8-10 wheat heads there is a risk of a reduced grade. The Canadian Grain Commission limits midge damage in No. 1 CWRS wheat to 2% and 8% in No. 2. In durum the tolerances are similar.

Scouting
Adults appear in late June and early July. Wheat fields should be scouted regularly between heading and flowering. Scout in the evenings, from about 8-10 pm, when the temperature is around 15 degrees Celsius and there is no or very light winds. Also, scout four or five places in the field for a more accurate count.

Threshold
One adult midge per four or five wheat heads is usually enough to warrant control measures.

Control
Cygon™, Lagon™, Lorsban 4E™, Nufos™ and Pyrinex™ are all registered for use on wheat midge in wheat. Check the label for any other restrictions regarding the chemicals. For example Cygon™ and Lagon™ do not control the eggs, just the adults. Also, watch the stage of the crop, as certain chemicals have to be applied at specific times for good control. Check the label for application timing.

Considerations for Control
Late evening or early morning are the best times to control the adults, as the females are most active in cool nighttime temperatures (but above 15 degrees Celsius or 59 degrees Fahrenheit) and when the wind is less than 10 km/hr (6 mph). Also, good coverage is critical for control if your chemical controls eggs as well, so make sure your water volume is adequate. Optimal control happens when 70% of the crop is in the heading to flower stage. If 30-60% of the crop is flowering then it needs to be sprayed immediately to have good control on the wheat midge. If 80% of the crop is flowering then control is not recommended as the window has passed and the midge damage has already started. Spraying therefore should be done early to protect the main stem and first tiller, as this is where most of the yield potential of the crop is.

Wheat Midge Forecast Map: http://www.cwb.ca/public/en/farmers/weather/midge/popups/forecast.jsp

Midge emergence can be modeled using accumulated temperature calculations called Growing Degree Day (GDD). Data provided by Agriculture & AgriFood Canada (AAFC), Saskatoon suggest using a base temperature of 5°C for predicting midge emergence patterns using accumulated GDDs.
Thresholds for combined emergence of male and female midge are:
10% emergence 693 (±39) GDD
50% emergence 784 (±38) GDD
90% emergence 874 (±41) GDD

As of July 28th in the Calgary corridor we are between 725 and 854 GDD.

Wheat Midge info: http://www1.agric.gov.ab.ca/$department/deptdocs.nsf/all/agdex2507

Carbon Market

Can the Tech Fund deliver?

July 28, 2009- A center piece of Alberta’s climate change strategy to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions was the creation of the Climate Change and Emissions Management Fund or “Tech Fund.” Recall that large final emitters (LFEs) have the option to make contributions to the Tech Fund to meet their mandated GHG reductions under the Climate Change and Emissions Management Act (CCEMA). The stated intent of the Tech Fund is to allocate the accumulated contributions, some $122 million at last count, to create real and meaningful reductions in GHGs. Let’s take a look at what the Tech Fund has to deliver.

LFEs can meet up to 100% of their mandated GHG reductions by paying into the Tech Fund at $15/tonne of CO2e, which effectively creates a $15/tonne price cap on compliance worthy GHG offsets. But why buy those pesky offsets when you can meet your obligations with a Tech Fund contribution? The offsets are a bit pesky because they are subject to the Alberta Government accepting them, and they have up to two (2) years to decide that after an LFE has submitted them for compliance. Therefore, offsets carry some risk of acceptance by the Government and that’s the reason they trade at a discount to the Tech Fund value.

Compliance worthy GHG offsets are created following Government approved protocols which define the amount GHG reductions. Therefore, the Tech Fund by definition should deliver GHG reductions that meet or even exceed the quality of the offsets. The Tech Fund should at least come up with the amount of GHG reductions the LFEs paid to not have to.

If the Tech Fund took in $122 million, at $15/tonne that represents about 8.1 million tonnes of CO2e reductions they must come up with. This assumes that the administrators of the Tech Fund work for free, if they don’t then they have to come with more reductions. That would seem like a whole lot of GHG reductions given the entire offsets market has only created about 5 million tonnes of CO2e to date. Another interesting perspective on the Tech Fund is the implied ability to create those 8.1 million tonnes of GHG reductions at a price below the prevailing GHG offset price. In other words, will the Tech Fund compete with GHG offset opportunities to come up with the GHG reductions? This becomes even more interesting if the price of GHG offsets increase over time, while the Tech Fund’s budget is still obliged to create the GHG reductions it was paid for.

Now if the Tech Fund fails to come up with the required GHG reductions, who makes up the difference? Does the taxpayer make a contribution? Or does the Tech Fund just fail to deliver? Remember the Tech Fund’s stated purpose is to create the reductions, so not getting them could be interpreted as a subsidy to the LFEs.

Reference: Bruce Love, Preferred Carbon
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author only and are not intended to represent financial advice.

Market News

Fundamental Analysis

World Production in Million Metric Tonnes  

	Production			Ending Stocks			Ending Stocks
	2007-08	Jul-09	Change	2007-08	Jul-09	Change	5 Year Avg
Rapeseed	48.4	55.4	14%	3	4.5	45%	4.6
Barley	133.2	142.1	7%	18	27.7	53%	25.7
Wheat	610.6	656.0	7%	119	182.6	53%	138.6
Corn	792.3	789.8	0%	128	139.2	9%	125.9
Soybeans	220.9	243.0	10%	53	51.0	-4%	54

Source: USDA

Technical Indicators

I have set up these weekly updates to include market entry indicators to help you improve the timing of your grain marketing. Also, I added market trend indicators to give you a sense of the short and long term market trends.

Canola – November Futures
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Wheat – December Futures
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Barley – December Futures
Insert chart
Canadian Dollar – September futures
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International Crop Weather News

United States: In the West, hot, dry weather west of the Rockies favors fieldwork and rapid crop growth. Record-setting heat persists in the Northwest, where the winter wheat harvest is advancing but some spring-sown small grains are being stressed by heat and diminishing soil moisture reserves. On the Plains, cool, dry weather prevails across northern portions of the region, where the winter wheat harvest is underway. In the Corn Belt, isolated showers are developing across central portions of the region. Elsewhere, another surge of cool air is maintaining a slower-than-normal pace of crop development, particularly across the upper Midwest.

Europe: Locally heavy showers over the northern two-thirds of Europe maintain favorable soil moisture for reproductive corn and sunflowers but slow winter grain and oilseed harvesting. Dry weather in Spain maintains high irrigation demands for reproductive to filling corn and sunflowers.

Former Soviet Union: Hot, dry weather persists in eastern Ukraine and southern Russia, adversely affecting reproductive corn and sunflowers but aiding small grain harvesting. Dry weather returns to major spring grain producing areas in north-central Kazakhstan, while rain boosts prospects for reproductive spring grains in the Siberia District in Russia.

East Asia: Showers in Manchuria maintain abundant to excessive soil moisture for corn and soybeans. Rains return to southern China, benefiting vegetative late-season rice.

Southeast Asia: Drier weather returns to the northern Philippines, following last week’s tropical cyclone, promoting rice and corn replanting. Monsoon showers across Indochina maintain favorable soil moisture for corn and rice.

South Asia: Monsoon showers in central and western India favor rice, oilseeds, and cotton. In northern India, an erratic monsoon lowers prospects for cotton and sugarcane.

Australia: Crop conditions remain good to excellent across much of the wheat belt as occasional rain and generally mild weather continue to aid winter grain and oilseed development.

South America: Rain covers key winter grain areas of Argentina, likely encouraging some additional planting. Cool, showery weather maintains overall favorable conditions for wheat in southern Brazil.

Canada: Across the Prairies, warm, sunny weather promotes the development of spring grains and oilseeds.

Mexico: Moisture is limited for corn and other rain-fed summer crops throughout the south.

Source: USDA