Agronomist Notes

Last week saw very little rain (finally!) and we were able to get a lot of spraying done towards the end of the week. We are now on the tail end of herbicide applications in wheat, canola and barley with early June seeded crops ready to spray this week. An interesting observation I made this week was the differences in crop emergence and how a slight change in seeding depth (1/2 inch) hindered emergence dramatically, especially in canola. This fall I think we’ll see many producers waiting for crops to mature in the wheel tracks due to compaction issues at seeding and spraying.    

I’ve completed roughly 6,000 acres of post-herbicide spray checks and have not found any issues thus far. I’m very impressed with weed control on large wild oats (5 leaf, 3 tiller) and buckwheat. The biggest concern with weeds at this point are the areas within the fields that have poor growth and no crop canopy, which leaves room for weeds like buckwheat and annual sow thistle to take over. The drowned out areas will be a weedy mess towards the end of the season, if things dry up. I have included information on identifying herbicide injury since the majority of herbicide applications are behind us.

The wheat and barley planted in the first two weeks of May are now at or entering flag leaf stage. The decision to spray for disease is upon us so I’ve provided information on leaf staging and fungicide timing. The majority of early canola is starting to flower this week and should be around 5% bloom by the weekend. I’ve found cabbage seedpod weevils in canola around the Three Hills area and we will need to monitor these insects closely, as most of their damage occurs during the first two weeks of flowering.

The articles on carbon credit trading are a must read for all producers. I have contacted some major players in Alberta’s carbon credit trading industry and have summarized my findings.

Agronomy

Factors Promoting Leaf Disease Development

1. Seeding wheat after wheat or barley after barley.
2. Abundance of over-wintered straw and stubble (result of zero- or min-tillage).
3. Above-normal levels of precipitation in early- and mid-season.
4. Lush, dense crop stands (from high fertility - leading to elevated humidity within the canopy).
5. Production of varieties susceptible to leaf diseases.

Fungicides- Making the Decision

1. Does the crop show good yield potential?
2. Must the crop meet defined quality criteria (ie.  plumpness, bushel weight, etc.)?
3. Does the crop show lush growth and a heavy canopy?
4. Is there moisture due to rainfall, dew or humidity?
5. Is there disease infection on the lower leaves?
6. Is there infection on the middle leaves?

What leaves do I want to protect in my wheat & barley crop?

In wheat, the flag leaf is the most important to protect as it is at the top of the canopy where it receives significant sunlight. The flag leaf does the bulk of the photosynthetic work for the wheat plant, and is responsible for 55% of the grain fill.

In barley, the penultimate leaf (2nd leaf from the top) and the flag leaf are the most important leaves to protect. They are responsible for 80% of head fill.

Fungicide Timing- Predicting Flag Leaf Emergence

Barley (2 row): When the 3rd node is about ½ inch above the ground; the penultimate leaf (one just below the flag) is visible, and the next leaf to appear is the flag. If only 1 node is visible, then it will be about 10-14 days till flag leaf; if 2 nodes are visible it will be about 5-7 days until the flag leaf is out.

Barley (6 row) and wheat: When the 2nd node is ½ inch above the ground, the penultimate is visible and the next leaf is the flag. If only 1 node is visible, the next leaf will be about 5-7 days.

The flag leaf is usually the 7th or 8th leaf in cereals. In wheat, the flag leaf is large and contributes to 45% of the yield. The penultimate leaf contributes another 10%. In a barley crop, the flag leaf is smaller so the penultimate and flag together contribute 65% of the yield.

Source: Syngenta

Fungicide Selector

The Fungicide Selector link below will help you choose registered fungicides to control fungus problems in your crop.

Link: http://www.agric.gov.ab.ca/app23/pesticides/fungicides/getcrop.jsp

Diagnosing Herbicide Injury

The first step in the diagnostic process is to determine when the injury symptoms first became evident. Symptoms appearing during or immediately after crop emergence may indicate carry-over or pre-emergence herbicide injury while symptoms appearing after crop emergence points to a post-emergence herbicide. The second step is to determine if the injury was the result of a herbicide with contact activity or if the herbicide was translocated in the plant. A contact herbicide affects the leaves that were treated while a translocated herbicide affects new leaves. The final step is to match the injury symptom to a herbicide mode of action. 

Source: http://128.104.239.6/uw_weeds/herbinjkey/index.htm

Cabbage Seedpod Weevil

The majority of canola is now bolting, with the early seeded crops in early bloom. This is the time to begin scouting for cabbage seedpod weevils. The adult weevils are an ashy, charcoal gray colour approximately 3 mm long with a pronounced snout. The adults feed on buds, flowers, stems and pods. The adult weevils lay their eggs inside developing pods where the eggs hatch and larvae begin to feed on the seeds. Each larva can consume up to 5 seeds during its development, which can equate to a 15-20 % yield loss. The tiny exit holes left in the pods after the weevils emerge cause early shattering, and provide an entry point for disease.

The threshold for cabbage seedpod weevil is 3 to 4 weevils per sweep. The proper technique to sweep for weevils is to do ten 180-degree sweeps in ten locations. Be sure to move away from the headlands and pick areas that are representative of the field. Weevils are typically higher in number along field edges. Sweeping should take place from bud stage through flowering. The best time to apply an insecticide is the 10-20 % bloom stage if possible to avoid harming the beneficial insects in canola.

Link: http://www1.agric.gov.ab.ca/$Department/deptdocs.nsf/all/agdex2538

Carbon Credit Trading Update

Starting July 1, 2007, over 100 facilities in Alberta will need to meet green house gas (GHG) reduction targets in Alberta. These targets establish the demand for carbon credits in this province and these firms can use the carbon credits they buy from others, towards their target. Carbon credits, or as they’re called in the regulations, Carbon Offsets, represent an action taken by an unregulated activity (like agricultural or forestry practices) that reduces greenhouse gases.
 
The rules around the Carbon Offset Market in Alberta are that emission reductions must be:

• From activities or projects that reduce greenhouse gases after January 1, 2002
• They must be real, quantifiable and measurable
• Occur from activities that are not required by law
• Have clearly established ownership
• Be counted only once
• Be verified by a qualified third party

To assist buyers and sellers in the market, the Alberta Government is developing over 15 market standards to help automatically meet the above criteria and assist sellers in understanding what practices/technologies count and how many credits can be generated when undertaking a new project. These should be available mid-summer. If you’re thinking of selling offsets in Alberta, your best bet is to wait until the market standards (or GHG quantification protocols) are available so you can see what counts. In order to engage a third party verifier, they likely will want to see the kind of protocol or standard you’re using to quantify the reductions. Using a government-approved protocol will reduce your cost and risk in the marketplace. Offsets can be earned as far back as 2002 onwards, if verified by a third party. 
 
For more information on the Alberta Offset Market, visit http://www.climatechangecentral.com/default.asp?V_DOC_ID=2307.

Source: Karen Haugen-Kozyra, Director of Policy Development and Offset Solutions, Climate Change Central

Carbon Credit Trading – Who’s knocking on your door?

I’ve had a number of producers approached by a third party carbon credit aggregator, Emission Credit Corporation, looking to buy carbon offset credits. I’ve done a great deal of background checking with the actual decision makers setting up the carbon credit trading system in Alberta and here’s what I’ve discovered: The bottom line with signing up before July is that you have the potential to loose out on a great deal of revenue by getting in too early. I had one client considering a deal worth $80,000, which sounds wonderful for merely providing some record keeping information. After further investigation on the true value of carbon credits, the client now has the potential to make $132,000 by waiting until the Alberta Government releases the protocols. That’s a $52,000 gain!

Let’s look at the numbers. In today’s market, the value of one tonne of carbon is roughly US$15.00/tonne. Now, the value back to the Canadian producer is conservatively around $10.00/tonne. The average zero-till farming operation can sequester around 0.4 tonnes per acre. That’s $4.00/ac before the third party aggregators take their marketing costs, which are typically 40%.

Steve’s quick math:
$10/tonne X 60% = $6/tonne.
$6/tonne X 0.4 tonnes/ acre = $2.40/ac.
$2.40/ac X 11,000ac (client example) X 5 years (2002-2007) = $132,000
$132,00 - $80,000 = $52,000 gain by waiting until protocols are announced. SL

Markets

What’s Next for Big Market News?

The odds are that the USDA's June 29 acreage and grain stocks reports won't have a big price impact on the market, but one never knows. There does seem to be a difference in opinion among analysts over how much corn and soybeans were planted. The bigger question, however, is the one over yield, and we won't see an objective report on that until August.

Source: Corn & Soybean Digest

Stats Canada Releases Canadian Seeded Acreage

Statistics Canada’s updated seeding intentions survey for the 2007 season is expected to focus on how much area was left unseeded and the amount of acreage allotted to each crop, market participants said. The report, due Tuesday, is expected to show that an acreage drop occurred in canola and wheat, and that an acreage increase occurred in barley.

Source: CBOT News

Canola Outlook

Canola futures have continued their choppy trading patterns as the market awaits fresh news to trade from. Statistics Canada comes out with its first seeded acreage report on Tuesday, June 26th. Traders believe the estimate will come in around 14.3 million acres. I think it will be lower, and if it isn’t, it will be lowered in the next report I’m sure. If the number comes in lower than 14.3 million acres, traders will react positively to the news. Also, crush margins have improved significantly the last few weeks encouraging crushers to remain steady buyers of canola. There is also a rumour that China may step in and buy more canola from Canada.

CWB Fixed Price Contract

The CWB fixed price contract is $240.55 per tonne as of Monday June 25, 2007. Not a bad value at this time given our strong dollar. I’m not convinced that our wheat yields will be much above average at this time in most areas and the last five hail storms have me concerned about the production risk we have this year. SL

Link: http://www.cwb.ca/db/contracts/ppo/ppo_prices.nsf/fixed_price/2007_index.html

Australian Wheat Prospects Good

The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics is estimating the 2007-08 wheat crop at 22.5 million tonnes, up from last year's drought reduced crop of only 9.8 million tonnes. Wheat supplies available for export will rebound sharply following widespread autumn rains in key growing areas although some areas remain dry in central and northern parts of Western Australia's wheat belt.

Source: http://www.usagnet.com/story-national.php?Id=1467&yr=2007