Agronomist Notes

Last week I checked 2,500 acres of wheat. Crop maturity seems to be right on the mark with many wheat crops in the 3 to 4-leaf stage. Canola, pea and barley crops are progressing nicely as well. The major weed I noticed in my travels was dandelion; the rain last September triggered their germination and now they’re smugly advancing. Producers who didn’t use a pre-burn herbicide are quickly looking at options to control these fast bloomers in-crop. On the disease front I did see small signs of tan spot in second-year wheat fields but nothing of concern at this time. Insect pressures in cereals and oilseeds have remained insignificant at this time.

In this week’s newsletter, we’ll discuss the use of wind screens on sprayers and how to measure plant densities. We’ll also look ahead to fall fertilizer options and lastly, Market News.

Crop Staging Area (Calgary to Drumheller to Three Hills)

Date Seeded:	April 23-31	May 1-7	May 8-15
Wheat	4-leaf, 1 tiller	3-leaf, 1 tiller	2-leaf
Canola	3-leaf	2-leaf	cotyledon
Barley	4-leaf, 1 tiller	3-leaf, 1 tiller	early 2-leaf
Peas	5th node	3rd node	2nd node

This Week in Scouting

• Scout early-May seeded fields for weeds, insects and diseases.
• Timing should be right for spraying wheat and peas seeded in late-April. Check leaf staging. 
• Count and document plant stand densities to calculate seedling mortality rates. Keep records.
• Check seeding depth across width of air drill. This is much easier to do when you can dig plants up and measure.  
• Continue monitoring for wireworm and flea beetle damage. 
• Watch for volunteer canola pressure in wheat or barley seeded to canola stubble.
• Continue gopher control program.

Agronomy

Wind Screens on Sprayers. Are they an advantage?

For the last four years I’ve watched my clients enjoy a lot less down time during the spray season compared to others. While other producers are shut down because of windy conditions, Doug and Mike Miller of Acme, AB, keep rolling along, thanks to the use of windscreens. 
I usually get a call from Doug saying he’s finished and ready to move on at the same time I’m talking to others who are shut down.

Really, there’s nothing more frustrating than having to shut down on a warm sunny day because of the wind. Typically, the two or three days you have to spray are windy, followed by two or three days of inclement weather. It makes spray season extremely tough to do the best job possible. When timing is everything, it seems like time runs out quite often we end up spraying too late or have to change herbicides because we’ve lost our crop and weed staging.

So how much extra work are windscreens? Doug says they can shut down, wash the tractor and sprayer, including the windscreens, with a fire hose, triple rinse and fill up in one hour. Another method the Millers use to reduce drift, improve herbicide efficacy and spray in windier conditions is applying 7 to 8 gallons per acre of water through 15 gallon nozzles. This increases the droplet size and travel speed, which is usually around 13 to 14 miles an hour. They own a Flexicoil suspended boom sprayer with a 1,400 gallon tank, so 200 acres per fill helps with efficiency. Also, the 15 gallon nozzles are fairly inexpensive compared to 5 and 10 gallon nozzles. 

The downfall of windscreens is the inability to see your spray patterns, although a quick lift of the boom and you can see the pattern quite well. It takes an extra 30 minutes to wash the screens when you’re changing herbicides, and of course, if you run the screens into the ground they’ll break and must be replaced. All things considered, windscreens actually offer a lot of advantages. If you’re in the market for a new sprayer or wish to improve the timing and efficacy of the herbicides you apply, then windscreens may be a great option. SL

Counting Plant Stand Densities – Consistently Higher Losses in Wheat on Wheat

After scouting roughly 2,500 acres of wheat last week, I noticed a very consistent pattern in wheat seedling mortality once again. The seedling mortality in wheat on wheat stubble was 10% higher than wheat on canola stubble.

For example: I had my AC Harvest wheat targeted at 30 plants/ft2. The germination was 98%, the TKW was 37 grams and I estimated 10% seedling mortality. The calculated seeding rate was 121 lbs an acre, that is: 30 plants/ft2 × 37 ÷ (98% - 10) ÷ 10.4 = 121 lbs/ac.

After counting plant stand densities in the wheat on canola stubble I measured 30 plants/ ft2. This was right on target and I gave myself a pat on the back. My wheat on wheat stubble fields measured 27 plants/ft2, a 10% increase in seedling mortality. There are many reasons for why we lose more plants in wheat on wheat stubble—perhaps cooler soils under heavier residue, higher disease pressure and seeding depth variability. 

A 10% increase in seedling mortality has been quite consistent with wheat on wheat since I started keeping track. I suggest you count your plant stand densities and make your own observations on your farm so you can begin fine tuning your seeding rates. SL

Calculating Plant Stand Density

In order to achieve a representative sample, throw a one square foot measure or your trowel on the ground about 15 feet away from you and walk over and measure. Don’t select areas by stopping and looking down because if you’re like me, you eye tends to lead you towards the better areas. Now, measure the plants in your square foot and follow the calculation.

Formula:  Plants/ft2 × inches of row spacing ÷ 12 inches = plants/ft2
Example: 40 plants/ft2 × 9 inch spacing ÷ 12 inches = 30 plants/ft2

X X
X X
X X     12 inches
X X

12 inches

Optimum Plant Stand Density

See Chart: http://www1.agric.gov.ab.ca/$department/deptdocs.nsf/all/agdex81#Calculating

Looking Ahead to Fall Fertilizer Prices

As I see it, the biggest price risk to producers in 2009 will be the drive in phosphate fertilizer prices. It looks as though urea and sulphur prices may soften over the summer but not phosphorus. The demand for phosphorus is rising while global supplies are diminishing with no plans for new phosphate mines in the immediate future. China has cut off its exports of phosphate to control domestic prices leaving Europe and the US as major suppliers to the world and forcing countries like India to look elsewhere for supplies. I’ve heard talk from industry that phosphate prices may rise to $2,000 a tonne in order to curb demand this year. 

Urea, on the other hand, has the potential to soften in the next few months as it typically does during the summer. In my quest to find cheaper fertilizer options, I’ve looked into pre-buying today, in the fall, applying compost, and using specialty fertilizer products like S-15. I’ve put together a price comparison using phosphate at two different price levels, S-15 as a phosphate and sulphur source as well as compost prepared in my local area with feedlot manure, gypsum and liquid hog manure. 

The prices I used in the following comparisons are based on urea (46-0-0-0) at $650/tonne, phosphate (11-52-0-0) at $1,500 a tonne, sulphur (21-0-0-24) at $550 a tonne and S-15 at $1,200 a tonne. The fertilizer blends are middle of the road for most of the recommendations I make for cereals and canola.

Cereal Blend Comparison

• Phosphate at $1,500/tonne: 80-30-0-0 = $86.46/acre.
• Phosphate at $2,000/tonne: 80-30-0-0 = $99.55/acre.
• S-15 at $1,200/tonne (S-15 contains 15% sulphur): 80-30-0-11 = $93.05/acre.
• Compost: Nutrient value works out to 180-97-80-200 lbs/acre and includes application at 5 tonnes/acre = $104.00/acre.

Canola Blend Comparison

• Products: 46-0-0-0 ($650/tonne) + 11-52-0-0 ($1500/tonne) + 21-0-0-24 ($550/tonne): 80-30-0-15 = $93.64/acre.
• Products: 46-0-0-0 ($650/tonne) + 11-52-0-0 ($2000/tonne) + 21-0-0-24 ($550/tonne): 80-30-0-15 = $106.93/acre.
• Products: 46-0-0-0 ($650/tonne) + S-15 ($1200/tonne) S-15 contains 33% phosphate: 80-33-0-15 = $97.31/acre.
• Compost: Nutrient value works out to 180-97-80-200 lbs/acre and includes application at 5 tonnes/acre = $104.00/acre.

Conclusion

The least expensive option per acre in the cereal and canola blend examples is to pre-price phosphate this spring and wait for urea and sulphur prices to soften. Compost has the greatest advantage when comparing dollars per nutrients applied and works out to roughly $34 a tonne. By doing sitting on the fence, you could potentially lose $13.00 an acre or nothing at all if prices remain flat. I’m leaning towards pre-pricing a portion of my 2009 phosphorus needs and possibly composting my canola ground. SL

Market News

International Crop and Weather Highlights

Europe: Locally heavy showers slow summer crop planting but maintains favourable moisture levels for filling winter grains. Dry weather in northern portions of Germany and Poland favors planting of corn.

Former Soviet Union: In Ukraine and Russia, several days of dry weather favor spring grain and summer crop planting, while unseasonably mild weather promotes crop development. In Kazakhstan, unseasonably warm, dry weather favors rapid spring wheat and barley planting.

Middle East: Dry weather returns to winter grain areas in Turkey after several weeks of favorable showers. Dry conditions persist in Iran, reducing prospects for filling winter grains.

East Asia: Dry weather aids winter wheat maturation and early harvesting on the North China Plain. Rain in Manchuria benefits corn and soybeans.

Southeast Asia: Showers in the Philippines exacerbate flooding in the north but favor corn development.

Australia: Drier weather follows recent beneficial rainfall in southeastern Australia, aiding winter grain sowing. Widespread showers continue in Western Australia, benefiting germinating to emerging winter grains. Mostly dry weather in eastern Australia favors summer crop harvesting, but slows wheat development.

South America: Light showers cover Argentina’s southern wheat areas, but more rain is needed elsewhere for uniform germination. Corn and soybean harvesting nears completion. Warm, dry weather favors germination and establishment of winter wheat in southern Brazil.

Canada: Locally heavy rain overspreads the western and southern Prairies, including drought-affected areas of Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Spring grain and oilseed planting is reportedly progressing well.

Mexico: Heat and dryness cover Tamaulipas, the largest producer of winter sorghum. Corn planting is underway on the southern plateau.

CWB Offers New Wheat Pricing Option

Prairie farmers have a new way to price their wheat, the CWB announced last week. FlexPro, a year-round wheat pricing contract with no tonnage limit, has been developed in time for the new crop year, with sign-up beginning on June 23.
Full story: http://www.cwb.ca/public/en/newsroom/releases/2008/052808.jsp

Canadian Prairie Planting Progress

Overall planting progress has moved to about 96 per cent prairie-wide versus long term averages of 92 per cent and last year’s 89 per cent. The weather last week was mostly dry across the eastern half of the prairies with scattered rain in western regions; this provided the chance for seeding to be completed in most areas. Most of the crops remaining to be planted are located in the northern growing regions with some reseeding activities reported in southern and central areas because of poor germination and emergence of early seeded crops.
Source: CWB

Cool, Wet Spring Dampening Possibilities for US Corn Crop

A cold, wet spring put crop planting weeks behind schedule across much of the US Corn Belt and drastically slowed growth where corn is already in the ground. Now, farmers in parts of Iowa, Illinois and Indiana are replanting corn that either sat under water in flooded fields too long to germinate or can't break through sodden, compacted soils. And the cool, soggy weather is the last thing a heat-loving crop like corn needs.
Full story: http://www.commandnews.com/fpweb/fp.dll/$fcc/htm/fcc/x_dv.htm/_ibyx/daj/_svc/cp_pub/_Id/1162925657/_k/bkGY2YDG9fFol0s3

Outlook for Global Grain Supplies

The outlook for global grain supplies is improved from a month ago but remains tight. Increased production will almost entirely be absorbed by rising use, especially to make ethanol. More wheat and barley will be used for feed in place of maize and sorghum. Total stocks will remain very low, with a further decline in the five major exporters.
Full summary: http://www.igc.org.uk/en/downloads/gmrsummary/gmrsumme.pdf