Agronomist Notes

What a spring! Spring 2009 is the seventh coldest on record since 1950. We had two frosts last week and another one yesterday morning, for a total of five frost events this season so far. Temperatures dipped down to -1 degree C last week preceded by a few 20+ degrees C days which really set a number of canola fields back. Sunday night’s temperatures of -1 degree C to -6 degrees C were preceded by cold weather and one quarter to one inch of rain in some areas. At first glance, Sunday’s frost may not have been as severe given the cold and wet weather preceding it. Overall, canola stands across my territory, and across Western Canada for that matter, are below average with many areas suffering from either cold, dry soils or cold, wet soils resulting in poor emergence.

Wheat, barley and canola crops are roughly 4 to 5 days behind last year as you can see in the chart below. I’ve included last years crop staging to give you an idea of where we sit compared to last year. Crop stages were comparable to last year up until this week where cool temperatures and frost have hindered growth. The name of the game now is to be patient and do everything in a manner that puts crop safety at the forefront. If you want to talk stress, last week I saw a field of fall rye that was completely headed out, about two weeks earlier than normal.

In this week’s issue, we’ll begin by looking at the selection process for deciding whether to include a fungicide at herbicide timing. Next, I’ll provide comments and tips on herbicide efficacy to help you choose products and be aware of potential herbicide injuries. I’ve included a link to this year’s herbicide rainfastness guide to print off and keep in the cab. I’ll briefly discuss my findings comparing precision drills to conventional drills with respect to canola emergence. I’ll talk about in-row seed placement and the inefficiency in our air drill metering systems. Bruce Love of Preferred Carbon will give us an update on the US climate change policy as it directly effects what we adopt here in Canada. Finally, it’s market news with a new update from climate specialist Ray Garnett from Agro-Climatic Consulting.   

Pictured above is Murray Scholz, NSW Australia, with his JD 1870 seeding wheat in early May, 2009.

Agronomy

Crop Staging Area (Calgary to Drumheller to Three Hills as of June 9th)

Seeded	April 23-31	May 1-7	May 8-15
Wheat	4 leaf, 1 tiller	3 leaf, 1 tiller	2 leaf
Canola	5 leaf	4 leaf	2 leaf
Barley	4 leaf, 1 tiller	3 leaf, 1 tiller	3 leaf
Peas	7th node	5th node	3rd node

For interest sake, here is last year’s crop progress as of June 9th, 2008.

 

Seeded	April 23-31	May 1-7	May 8-15
Wheat	5 leaf, 2 tiller	4 leaf, 2 tiller	3 leaf
Canola	6 leaf	Early 5 leaf	3 leaf
Barley	5 leaf, 2 tiller	3 leaf, 1 tiller	3 leaf, 1 tiller
Peas	8th node	6th node	4rd node

This Week in Scouting

• Be cautious with your herbicide applications. Watch for cool overnight temperatures and try to avoid spraying late in the evening to reduce plant stress.
• Inspect fields for healthy, green, perky crops and weeds to avoid a reduction in herbicide efficacy and increase in crop injury.
• Try to avoid high rates of 2,4-D and MCPA when plants are stressed.  
• Count and document plant stand densities to calculate seedling mortality rates. Keep records.

Should I apply a fungicide at herbicide timing?

The quick and dirty answer is no on most occasions, however, there are times when a fungicide can provide an economic benefit prior to flag leaf emergence or at herbicide timing. An early fungicide application may be warranted if:

1. The crop was planted into infested cereal stubble (ie. wheat on wheat stubble);
2. The crop has a very dense and moist canopy due to tight row spacing (ie. reduced air flow);
3. Lesions are observed on the newest leaf growth;
4. The lesions are caused by stripe or leaf rust;
5. The crop is of high value.

* If you have checked at least 3 of these, then there may be an economic advantage to applying fungicide at the seedling stage

Cereals in the seedling and vegetative stages are most susceptible to leaf spots because they are located close to the ground where conditions are more humid and are closer to disease inoculum from infected stubble. This is why the most early and severe symptoms are seen in cereal crops planted into the same type of cereal stubble.

It is essential to accurately diagnose whether the symptoms observed are caused by disease pathogens. Yellowing, spotting, streaking and leaf death could be the result of other problems including root disease, nitrogen deficiency, insect damage, herbicide injury, heat banding or frost. At first glance, a crop may look unhealthy if the oldest leaves are infected with disease or have other injury. However, it is important to look at the new leaf growth. If the new growth is healthy and the overall crop density is sufficient, the crop should quickly recover.

Source: Penny Pearse, Saskatchewan Agriculture & Food

Herbicide efficacy comments and tips

The recent frosts and cool temperatures will have a significant impact on herbicide performance and increase the risk of crop injury. A crops ability to metabolize herbicides slows during cool conditions, or when plants are under stress, which extends the amount of time required to degrade herbicide. Slow herbicide metabolism increases the risk of crop injury. The following points are just tidbits of info I’ve learned over the years.

• When spraying Liberty, the weather that occurs during application and the day after application has a significant impact on Liberty performance. For example, a worst case scenario: You spray late at night and temperature falls below 15 degrees C then cloudy weather follows the next day.  You can be sure of very disappointing weed control. Cloudy weather significantly affects the performance of Liberty the day after application.
• Grassy weed escapes or re-tillering is likely to occur during prolonged periods of stress on all wild oat herbicides. 
• Wild oats are actually more susceptible to Puma Super during cool rather than warm/hot conditions.
• Green and yellow foxtail are warm season grasses and may stop growing under cold conditions, resulting in poor control.
• There is a high risk of crop stunting in wheat when you apply Achieve Liquid at the 3 to 4 leaf, 1 tiller stage when you spray in the evening and the temperature falls below 8 degrees C at night.
• Products like Achieve Liquid, Poast Ultra and Centurion are highly susceptible to UV light and will degrade rapidly if applied during mid-day or if left in non-metal spray tanks for an extended period of time. If you are stuck with Achieve Liquid, Poast Ultra or Centurion in the tank, be sure to park the sprayer in the shade or under cover to avoid the breakdown of the chemical.
• If you have Centurion left in the tank for a few days due to a shut-down, top up the Centurion by 10% before you start up again. 
• If sprayed during warm, moist conditions, you will see improved performance of Achieve Liquid, Poast Ultra and Centurion when you spray later in the day. The rapid UV breakdown of these herbicides is slowed under low light conditions which allows more time for the herbicide to work. It can also lead to more crop injury, so be cautious with Achieve Liquid.
• Cold temperatures, including freezing conditions following application of ALS herbicides (Group 2’s) and Buctril M, may increase crop injury of labelled crops with little effect on weed control.
• Liberty, Basagran and Gramoxzone are less likely to cause crop injury when cold temperatures follow application but less weed control will result.
• Products such as 2,4-D, MCPA, dicamba, clopyralid (Lontrel), fluroxypyr (Attain) have adequate crop safety and provide similar weed control across a wide range of temperatures, but weed death is slowed when cold temperatures follow application. SL

Reference: http://www.smallgrains.org/springwh/Summer07/weed/weed.html

Rainfastness Guide

The following link is a handy list of rainfastness for registered herbicides in the province of Alberta:
www.agric.gov.ab.ca/app23/getcataloginfo?subject=product&view=varietal

Precision drills pay their way

After the first inspection of many wheat and canola fields in the last 10 days, I’ve noticed an impressive difference in the emergence rates of precision drills like the JD 1870, Morris Contour and the SeedMaster. The biggest difference I’ve seen is in the emergence of canola with plant stand density numbers roughly 40% higher than conventional drills. The cold, dry weather and thick residue has made this year’s canola emergence the poorest I’ve seen in a decade. It’s not hard to find fields with 3 to 5 plants per square foot where precision drills are showing 8 to 10 per square foot.

I believe the reason we have better emergence rates on the precision drills is due to the accurate placement of seeds, no more than one inch deep. In the conventional fields, I’ll find seeds at a half inch to 2 inches deep and it seems like anything more than 1 inch deep struggled to get to the surface. If the seeds did emerge from over an inch below, many had little energy left to withstand a frost and were wiped out completely. Bottom line, every seeding tool works when it’s warm and it rains after seeding. This is the year where precision drills separate themselves from the conventional drills. SL

In-row seed placement needs to change

What irks me the most in our seeding systems is the inability of our seeding tools to deliver a consistent flow of seeds to the ground. The combination of wide drill widths, high volumes of air and sub-average metering systems leaves us with poor seed distribution within each row. Take a look at the picture on the right and you can see how the seeds are spaced tightly with uneven distribution between each plant. In this furrow I counted eleven seeds crammed into six inches, and then a four inch gap with another four plants crammed into two inches at the other end.

One of the biggest breakthroughs in corn and soybean yields in the US is their ability to apply accurate spacing between plants within each row. If you could design a seed delivery system like a corn or soybean planter, I bet we could easily gain another 10% yield or better through precise seed distribution alone, especially in canola. If you know of any equipment engineers, please pass my complaint along to them with my phone number and I’d be more than happy to discuss my equipment wish list. SL

Carbon Market News

So where is US GHG legislation today?

June 8, 2009- Lately we have heard many rumblings about pending regulation of Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) and their reduction in the United States (US). This landmark in GHG policy is contained in the proposed “America Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009,” or ACESA being sponsored by Representatives Henry Waxman and Ed Markey. The ACESA has passed the critical Energy and Commerce Committee where is it was hotly debated and amended. With several less onerous committees to go, the Act may reach the House floor for debate before July 4, 2009. The ACESA has grown to 947 pages of reading pleasure and you too can have your own copy at http://energycommerce.house.gov/Press_111/20090518/hr2454_ans.pdf. 

If you don’t feel inclined to read through it, we have pulled out some of what we think are some of the more interesting details. While the ACESA covers a broad range of climate change related issues including renewable energy, carbon capture and store, job creation, support for adversely affected industries, the use of revenues from emission permit sales, technology investments, smart electrical grids and others, we’ll focus on the cap-and-trade approach to GHG reduction targets and the use of offsets.

The ACESA creates a cap-and-trade system for achieving GHG reductions over time beginning in 2012.  GHG emissions are capped relative to 2005 levels and include:

• 3% reduction by the end of 2012
• 17% reduction by 2020
• 42% reduction by 2030
• 80% plus reduction by 2050

Large Final Emitters (LFEs), defined as entities emitting over 25,000 tons of CO2e of GHGs annually, will be required to have permits to cover their emissions. It is estimated that this definition of LFEs will represent 85% of all GHG emissions in the US. Initially most of the emission permits will be given out for free, but over time they will be auctioned off and the number available will also decline inline with the reduction targets. Non-regulated entities (banks, brokerages, etc) will also be allowed to purchase and trade the emission permits. This is the cap-and-trade approach to GHG reductions, since unused emission permits can be traded to those that need them while overall emissions are capped by the total number of permits issued.

Some flexibility in meeting GHG reduction targets is provided to LFEs, the most relevant one to us is the use of GHG offsets, or carbon credits. The ACESA creates the Offsets Integrity Advisory Board to recommend eligible GHG reduction project types, while the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) will decide on the eligible projects. This creates a system for the development, modification, and acceptance for compliance of GHG reduction projects over time. Offsets could account for up to 2 billion tons of GHG reductions required from LFEs under the Act. One half of the offsets can originate from the US, while the other half can be from international sources. If not enough domestic offsets are available, relief is provided by allowing up to three quarters of the offsets to originate from international sources.  

Given the detail, specific targets, and timing of ACESA it is hard to imagine the US is not serious about climate change and renewable energy. The Act creates a significant incentive to reduce GHGs and also to reduce the US dependence on fossil fuels. From a Canadian perspective it’s hard to ignore the consequences of this proposed US legislation. In particular, we export a lot of fossil fuels to the US and our GHG emissions have sky rocketed to make us the worst performing G8 nation. 

Look for an update and discussion on Alberta carbon prices in next week’s column. 

Reference: Bruce Love, Preferred Carbon
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author only and are not intended to represent financial advice.

Market News

Fundamental Analysis

Updated May 12, 2009 USDA 

Technical Indicators

I have set up these weekly updates to include market entry indicators to help you improve the timing of your grain marketing. Also, I added market trend indicators to give you a sense of the short and long term market trends.

Canola – November Futures
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Wheat – December Futures
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Barley – Oct Futures
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Canadian Dollar – June futures
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International Crop Weather News

United States: In the West, cool weather is slowing crop development in most areas, while unusually heavy showers continue across the northern Intermountain region. On the Plains, unusually cold weather persists across northern portions of the region, and freezes were noted this morning in parts of Montana. Elsewhere, showers and thunderstorms are ending across the eastern Plains, while warmth is promoting crop development on the southern Plains. In the Corn Belt, the latest round of showers and thunderstorms is slowing soybean and late-season corn planting. As rain moves into the still-soggy central Corn Belt, crop concerns include disease pressure in winter wheat and yellowing of emerged summer crops.

Europe: Widespread, locally heavy showers over central and Eastern Europe boost soil moisture for reproductive winter crops but hamper planting of corn, sunflowers, and sugar beets. Sunny, hot weather in Spain and Italy maintains high irrigation demands for filling winter wheat and barley. In Hungary, top soils remain unfavorable dry for filling winter crops.

Former Soviet Union: In southern Russia, widespread rain benefits heading winter wheat and vegetative spring-sown crops. In Ukraine, drier-than-normal weather aids final planting efforts but lowers topsoil moisture for spring sown crops in early growth stages. In Kazakhstan, drier weather improves conditions for spring grain planting.

Southeast Asia: Monsoon showers across Indochina and the Philippines benefit rice and corn.

East Asia: Dry weather favors winter wheat harvesting on the North China Plain. More rain is needed for corn and soybean establishment in Heilongjiang.

South Asia: Showers linger on the heels of Tropical Cyclone Aila in northeastern India and Bangladesh, although drier weather returns by week’s end. Showers across central and southern India provide moisture for summer crop planting.

Middle East: Dry weather in Turkey aids cotton planting and wheat harvesting, following last week’s rainfall.

North Africa: Showers and thunderstorms hamper winter grain maturation and harvesting.

Australia: Widespread rain boosts moisture supplies in South Australia and Victoria, benefiting germinating to emerging winter grains. In western and eastern Australia, drier weather spurs winter grain sowing in the wake of soaking rains.

South America: Rain helps winter wheat germination in key growing areas of Buenos Aires, Argentina. In Brazil, locally heavy rain favors germination and establishment of winter wheat in the major producing states of Parana and Rio Grande do Sul.

Western Canada: Cool conditions last week continued to delay development of the 2009 crop. Temperatures remained two to five degrees Celsius below normal across the Prairies last week, which delayed crop development in all growing areas. Planting did progress to 95-per-cent complete, with most of the remaining area left in southern Manitoba. Welcome precipitation fell over the weekend in southern Alberta and south western Saskatchewan, but the amounts in west central Saskatchewan and central Alberta were insufficient to improve the poor soil moisture situation in those regions, where more rain is urgently needed for crop germination and emergence.

Mexico: Showers benefit reproductive winter sorghum in rain-fed farming areas of the northeast.

Ray Garnett weather and spring wheat yield predictions over the Canadian Prairies

May 21-31 brought generally drier and cooler than normal weather to the region. Based on 30 stations, May precipitation was 42% of normal. At June 1st, seeding progress ranged from 90% complete in Manitoba to complete in Alberta. Precipitation since April 1st has been less than 40% of normal in a region bounded by Edmonton, Saskatoon, Swift Current, Lethbridge, Calgary and Edmonton.
A regression model forecasts a spring wheat yield of 2.19 t/ha or 32.5 bu/ac. Assuming a wetter than normal June-July and cooler than normal June, the yield forecast increases to 2.32 t/ha or 34.5 bu/ac.
In summary, moisture conditions are highly variable and mostly poor.

Risk Assessment

The PNA pattern projection suggests wetter conditions around June 7. Based on a rapidly falling phase of the S.O.I. during April/May, there is a 70-80% probability that June-August rainfall will exceed the median in northern Alberta, 50-70% in southeast Alberta and southwest Saskatchewan and 30-40% in northern Saskatchewan

Ray Garnett, Agro Climatic Consulting
http://www.canadagrain.com/agroclim/index.htm