Agronomist Notes

I made it home safe and sound last Monday after an unexpected overnight in LA which broke up the 30-hour trip home from Western Australia. Since then, I’ve had some time to reflect and reacquaint myself with my family. It’s amazing how much you appreciate what you have at home when you leave it for five weeks.

Winter has welcomed me back with open arms too; I’ve shovelled the driveway four times in eight days. I can’t help but think of what I left behind just a few short days ago. The picture shown here was taken at the edge of a wheat field at Chris Dennison’s farm near Oamaru, NZ about four weeks ago. He won’t hire custom harvesters for fear of them driving over the 100-foot cliff that drops into the South Pacific!

In this week’s Beyond Agronomy News, we’ll look at the importance of delaying natural senescence and how we can improve grain fill. Next, we’ll look at the significance of kernel weights to see how what difference it makes in yield. Bruce Love of Preferred Carbon investigates government programs that claim ownership of the carbon credit you may want to sell. We’ll end with fundamental and technical market news along with international crop and weather news. Have a great week. SL

Agronomy

Delaying senescence is key to high yields and big kernels 

In New Zealand, I had the great fortune to visit with Guinness world record holders Mike Solari, who produced a 15.363 T/ha (228 bu/ac) wheat crop in 2007, and Chris Dennison, who produced a 15.1 T/ha (224 bu/ac) wheat crop in 2003. The strategy that held the greatest importance to both of them was their attempt to delay natural leaf senescence. Attention to this detail was the difference between a high yield and Guinness world record yield.  

I was told that every day you delay natural leaf senescence, you can increase yield by 250 kg per hectare (3.7 bu/ac) per day.  Essentially, you force the plant to extend its period of photosynthetic activity which in turn increases carbohydrate production and grain fill. Seventy-five percent of grain yield is obtained through the production of carbohydrates in leaf material during the filling phase. The remaining 25% comes from carbohydrates stored in the stems.

With this awesome concept in mind, I’ve put together a list of 10 things that we could do to delay senescence and maximize photosynthetic activity in our own production system and climate:

1. Maintain optimum nutrient supply throughout the growing season. The nutrients directly involved in photosynthesis are nitrogen, magnesium, copper, manganese, zinc, iron and chloride. Nitrogen is often the most limiting nutrient during the grain fill stage. Remember the Law of the Minimum? Yield is always proportional to the amount of the lowest limiting nutrient. Both world record wheat crops had three applications of nitrogen throughout the growing season at prescribed leaf stages.   
2. Eliminate compaction. Compaction reduces the oxygen, nutrient and water holding capacity of the soil and causes early leaf senescence, especially in soils with clay content. Explore controlled traffic systems or equipment with a lighter footprint. 
3. Target plant stand densities according to soil texture and water holding capacity. This can only be obtained through on farm research trials that compare varieties and seeding rates to soil textures. For example: High plant densities on coarse (sandy) textured soils cause early senescence from induced moisture stress. Both world record wheat crops were planted with a plant stand density target based on TKW and they were aiming for 120 plants/m2 (12 plants/ft2).
4. Choose the right cultivars. Typically, cultivars with higher yield potential have the ability to achieve greater photosynthetic activity through improved disease resistance, reduced lodging or larger leaf surfaces.
5. Use manure and compost. Liquid hog, dairy, poultry and cattle manures or compost provide a more sustained release of nutrients throughout the growing season compared to synthetic fertilizer. Providing optimum nutrition throughout the grain fill period will help to delay senescence. Even a one-time application of manure can provide years of benefits both biologically and nutritionally.
6. Seed early. I know, I know, you hear that one all the time and it’s not possible for all your fields to be the first one seeded. Early sowing dates allow plants to begin grain filling during the period of highest solar activity in July. With this strategy we’re maximizing photosynthetic activity more than delaying senescence.
7. Find your ideal seeding rate. Similar to what I mentioned in point 3, high seeding rates must coincide with high moisture environments such as those experienced in the moist dark brown, black and irrigated soil zones of Western Canada. High plant competition causes increased vegetation which leads to rapid depletion of soil moisture reserves and early senescence.
8. Use fungicides containing Group 11 or strobilurin-type action. These products have xylem mobility and cause that “stay green” effect, which helps to delay natural senescence. The products in Alberta that contain strobilurin for use in wheat are Headline (250 g/L), Stratego (125 g/L) and Quilt (75 g/L). Both world record wheat crops use two applications of a stobilurin fungicide.           
9. Add pulse crops to the rotation. Pulse residues tend to break down late in the growing season providing slow release nitrogen at grain filling. This technique helps to eliminate the chance of early leaf senescence due to nitrogen deficiency, the most common limiting nutrient at grain fill. Both world record wheat crops were grown on field pea stubble. 
10. Add a forage grass to the rotation. Forages grasses when taken out of production can provide a late season release of carbon and nitrogen as plant roots and foliage break down. Greatest benefits are typically seen in year two after breaking. Both world record wheat crops were seeded two years after annual ryegrass breaking.   

These strategies can be employed as one entire system to help ensure you’re maximizing photosynthesis and delaying natural senescence. To underscore the significance of the concept, one of the greatest achievements in US corn yields has been the “stay green” genetics they’ve introduced into their corn hybrids. With the leaves staying green up until late grain filling it’s given them the edge on higher yields. We don’t have those genetics in wheat yet, so we must find alternative ways to reach the same result. I believe we can. SL     

Does kernel weight drive grain yield?

I’ve always applied the theory that heavy kernels produce high yields. I thought that a small change in kernel weight resulted in a significant yield increase. It makes sense when you think of feed wheat varieties like 5700PR and AC Foremost or hard red spring varieties like AC Superb and CDC Go. They all have kernels weights over 40 grams and coincidently, they are all on the top of the yield chart.

To challenge that theory, I’ve put together a yield calculation tool that quantifies how much yield is gained through changes in kernel weight. In the examples below, I used the typical plant stand density recommendation for wheat in Alberta of 24 plants per ft2 (244/m2) with an average of 3 heads per plant (1 main stem plus 2 tillers) with 22 kernels per head. I used AC Harvest wheat with 30 and 35 gram thousand kernel weights.

Example 1. Using 30 grams per 1,000 kernels in AC Harvest wheat

Calculator: Heads/m2 × grains/head × 10,000 m2/ha × (TKW in grams ÷ 1,000) ÷ 1,000,000 = t/ha
732 × 22 × 10,000 × (30 ÷ 1000) ÷ 1,000,000 = 4.83 t/ha
4.83 t/ha × 36.744 bu/t ÷ 2.471 ac/ha = 71 bu/ac

Example 2. Using 35 grams per 1,000 kernels in AC Harvest wheat

Calculator: Heads/m2 × grains/head × 10,000 m2/ha × (TKW in grams ÷ 1,000) ÷ 1,000,000 = t/ha
732 × 22 × 10,000 × (30 ÷ 1000) ÷ 1,000,000 = 4.83 t/ha
5.63 t/ha × 36.744 bu/t ÷ 2.471 ac/ha = 84 bu/ac

In these examples, changing the kernel weight from 30 to 35 grams increased yield by 18%. So, for every one gram change in kernel weight, you could expect a 3.6% increase in yield. If you take an average 50 bu/ac wheat crop, a one gram change in kernel size will net you 1.8 bu/ac or $12.44 an acre at $6.91 a bushel ($254 tonne). This example ties in nicely with the article above, don’t you think? SL 

Consider restrictions on your carbon credits before signing up on government programs relating to agriculture and the environment

March 3, 2009- The world of government programs and carbon credits may be about to collide. Until recently, many government programs that promote environmentally sustainable and responsible practices have either been silent or made no claim to the associated environmental benefit. We are in a new era where this may not be the case. Many government programs being offered today must be examined carefully to determine who owns the environmental benefit, which includes any potential carbon credits. Given the almost unbelievable speed at which Green House Gas (GHG) policy is changing both in Canada and the USA to create a compliance based market for carbon credits, there has never been a more important time to understand what you are getting into when signing on to a government program.

What does this mean for the farmer signing up for a government program that also supports environmental stewardship? Well, when a government program lays claim to the environmental benefit the farmer is giving up the potential carbon revenue. Even if the program is silent on the ownership of the environmental benefit, assume its going to be owned by the government. What may seem like a good deal at the time may in fact not be. Let’s look at an example. Say a 5,000 acre farm signs up for a best management program and gets 80%, or a max of $5,000 towards the cost of the plan, but must give up the environmental benefit to the government for the next 4 years. Sounds like a good deal doesn’t it? Without a pre-existing market for the environmental benefit, or carbon credits, it would appear that way. Now let’s consider the pending marketplace for carbon credits. A return of just $1/acre per year (it’s already about that in Alberta on average based on just one protocol and there are more on the way) means $20,000 of revenue is given up in the government program. Recall that the government program claims all 4 years, so is it such a good deal now?

Another important point to consider is do you want to be locked out of a market for your carbon credits for an extended period of time, just when it’s getting interesting? A compliance based market for carbon credits typically provides much higher returns. For example, the Alberta compliance market today is around $13.50/tonne of CO2e while the voluntary market would be around $3 to $6/tonne. The European market is similar, where compliance grade carbon credits are around $12.50 USD/tonne, while the voluntary market would be around $5.50 USD/tonne. President Obama has announced a compliance market for GHGs will be in place in 2012 in the USA and the Canadian Government is busy working away today to potentially get a compliance system in place ahead of the USA. Our call on the carbon market is we are heading higher, not lower, in the price of carbon.

Reference: Bruce Love, Preferred Carbon
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author only and are not intended to represent financial advice.

Market News

Highlights from Bill Gary’s Price Perceptions

Soybeans
2009-10 ending stocks estimate of 471 million bushels would be the second largest in history.
The Chinese feed industry indicates that poultry numbers have declined as much as 30% in recent weeks.
The US crush has fallen to a ten year low.
Europe imposed duties of 27 to 41 Euros on US biodiesel imports this week.
China has been building a soybean reserve of about 4.5 million tonnes, which may be nearing completion.
If Chinese import demand slows in months ahead, futures could test the $7.00 level.

Corn
The combination of reduced demand and increased farmer selling is expected to push futures to new contract lows.
Export demand remains poor, livestock producers are reducing herds, and the ethanol industry is suffering financial problems.
Farmers own more corn than normal as they hoped for higher prices after harvest.
As spring nears, farmer selling will increase due to cash needs for planting and taxes.
The US export commitment as of February 26 was the lowest since 2003.

Wheat
Ending stocks estimate would be the largest since 2002, when the high in Chicago futures was $4.34.
Ending stocks estimate of 149.5 million tonnes is nearly equal to this season’s surplus.
Futures rallied this week in response to continued drought in the Southwest US.
US prices are not competitive in the world market and large old crop supplies in the Black Sea and EU will need to be moved before harvest.

Source: Bill Gary’s Price Perceptions Canadian Supplement
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Fundamental Analysis

World Production in Million Metric Tonne  

	Production			Ending Stocks			Ending Stocks
	2007-08	Feb-09	Change	2007-08	Feb-09	Change	5 Year Avg
Rapeseed	48.4	56.8	17%	3	5.4	74%	4.6
Barley	133.2	154.7	16%	18	28.8	59%	25.7
Wheat	610.6	682.8	12%	119	150.0	26%	138.6
Corn	792.3	786.5	-1%	128	136.7	7%	125.9
Soybeans	220.9	224.2	1%	53	49.9	-6%	54

Updated USDA report February 11th, 2009.

Technical Indicators

I have set up these weekly updates to include market entry indicators to help you improve the timing of your grain marketing. Also, I added market trend indicators to give you a sense of the short and long term market trends.

Canola May futures http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart.php?cbase=CA&market=RS&cterm=39

Support: $401.80
Resistance 1: $409.10
Resistance 2: $416.40

Market Entry
Volatility appears to be declining and the market is turning bearish. Technical analysis indicated a possible rally last week which did occur. 

Market Trend
The Relative Strength Index is somewhat oversold at 43.67. However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence here before getting too bullish here.

The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is DOWN. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is UP. Momentum is in bearish territory.

Feed Barley http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart.php?cbase=BA&market=AB&cterm=59

Support: $142.37
Resistance 1: $145.57
Resistance 2: $148.77

Market Entry
The market trend has changed direction to UP. The price is above the moving average indicating an upward swing in price. 

Market Trend
The Relative Strength Index is somewhat overbought at 55.59. The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is DOWN. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is UP. Momentum is indicating an overbought market. However the market may continue to become more overbought. Look for some evidenced weakness before getting too bearish here.

Hard Red Spring Wheat http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart.php?cbase=MW&market=MW&cterm=39

Support: $5.98-5
Resistance 1: $6.13-1 
Resistance 2: $6.27-5

Market Entry
The Bollinger Bands are indicating an overbought market. Volatility appears to be picking up a bit. The market is EXTREMELY BULLISH. Everything in this indicator is pointing to higher prices.

Market Trend
The Relative Strength Indicator is somewhat oversold at 47.59. The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is DOWN. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is UP. Momentum is indicating an overbought market. However the market may continue to become more overbought. Look for some evidenced weakness before getting too bearish here.

Canadian Dollar http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart.php?cbase=CD&market=CD&cterm=39

Support: $0.757
Resistance 1: $0.772
Resistance 2: $0.787

Market Entry
The Bollinger Bands are indicating an oversold market.

Market Trend
The Relative Strength Index is somewhat oversold at 35.90 but given the 45 bar new low here, greater oversold levels are likely.

The MACD is in bearish territory. The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is DOWN. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is DOWN. Further, the market just put in a 45 bar new low here. More lows are possible here.

Glossary of Technical Terms http://www2.barchart.com/education/learning.asp 

International Crop Weather News

United States: On the Plains, unusually cold weather prevails across northern portions of the region, including northern Montana, where this morning’s temperatures fell below 0 degrees F. In contrast, drought continues to severely stress pastures and winter grains on southern Plains, where warm, dry weather persists. In the Corn Belt, dry weather has returned, following a weekend storm that produced some wet snow in northern and western portions of the region. The same storm brought substantial rain to parts of the central and eastern Corn Belt, boosting soil moisture reserves in advance of spring fieldwork activities. In the South, warm, dry weather continues to promote spring fieldwork. However, dry conditions are limiting the growth of pastures and winter grains in Texas, parts of the Southeast, and many areas along and near the Gulf Coast.

Europe: England has been cool and windy which has dried up wet soils over that last week allowing spring plantings to progress significantly. Winter crop development is still behind the average for this time of year. Dry weather on the Iberian Peninsula increases irrigation demands for vegetative winter wheat. Rain and snow over Germany and Poland provide additional topsoil moisture for dormant winter crops. Winter grains in France break dormancy under sunny skies and near-normal temperatures.

Former Soviet Union: A warming trend follows a brief period of very cold weather in Ukraine, Russia, and Belarus, providing favorable overwintering conditions for dormant winter grains. Generally dry weather along with a lack of snow cover in southern Ukraine and southernmost areas in Russia likely prompts early spring fieldwork.

Southeast Asia: Showers in Indonesia maintain abundant to excessive soil moisture for reproductive rice. Heavy rainfall in eastern Malaysia slows oil palm harvesting. Flooding rains return to the southeastern Philippines, creating unfavorably wet conditions for corn.

South Asia: Increasing heat in northern portions of India and Pakistan threatens heading to filling winter wheat.

Middle East: In Turkey, additional rain maintains favorable conditions for vegetative winter wheat and barley. Showers ease drought in winter crop areas of Syria, Iraq, and western Iran.

North Africa: Showers return to Morocco, maintaining abundant topsoil moisture for vegetative to heading winter wheat and barley. Periods of rain in northern Tunisia provide additional moisture for winter grains.

Australia: In southern Queensland and northern New South Wales, drier weather helps the maturation of earlier-sown summer crops, while moisture supplies remain adequate for immature cotton and sorghum.

South America: Drier weather returns to the high-production farming areas of central Argentina, following beneficial rain. Drought intensifies in La Pampa and southern Buenos Aires, increasing stress on summer crops and livestock. Beneficial rain continues in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, boosting moisture levels for immature soybeans. Rain in central Brazil benefits safrinha corn and other secondary crops but slows soybean harvesting.

South Africa: Widespread rain falls throughout the Corn Belt and most other major farming areas.

Canada: Seeding commences in April in Southern regions and May in Northern regions.