Agronomist Notes
We had another spree of foggy days last week which has given me more optimism in this summer’s rainfall potential. I know that every meteorologist will argue that fog and rain within 90 days is a myth, but the times I’ve followed it, it has come to pass. Regardless, fertilizer and fuel prices have softened, the slowing oil patch may give us a few more workers, canola and wheat prices have rallied and we have roughly two inches of soil moisture to start the year. Not a bad start to 2009.
I had two out of the blue opportunities thrown at me late last week. The first was a call from a chap who wanted to hire me to do agronomy work in Kazakhstan on a 500,000 acre farm. Next I had a phone call from a gentleman in California looking to sell me false colour IR, NDVI and colourized NDVI imagery for $4 to $6 an acre, which includes six to eight photos per season. They can fly two million acres a day with their Cessna Conquest II. We may have an opportunity to do more in-season imagery to help quantify yield reductions if we decide to head that route. I think I must be getting a few more hits on my website!
This week we’ll be looking at yield loss from sprayer tracks through the eyes of a yield monitor. Next we’ll look at the effects of compaction on weed germination, something you have to see to believe. Next, I'll give you an update on what I've learned about strobilurin fungicides. Bruce Love will provide his weekly carbon market update. Finally, we'll finish up with fundamental and technical grain market news and international crop weather.
Picture is of Allen Jones of Balzac, AB, seeding wheat in 2008.
Agronomy
Sprayers reduce yield outside of the wheel tracks
For the longest time, we’ve accepted that wheel track damage from sprayers is inevitable without fully understanding how much yield loss it causes. We’ve assumed that most of the damage is found inside the wheel tracks, however that may not be the case. I have some revealing yield monitor photos that display something different.
We can easily calculate wheel track damage by dividing the width of the tires by the width of the boom to get an approximate percentage of wheel track damage. For instance, two 18-inch tires divided by a 90-foot (1080”) boom will leave you with 3% wheel track damage. That doesn’t seem significant until you realize that yield loss can occur outside of the sprayer tracks. The term used to describe this phenomenon is called the bell effect.
The bell effect simply refers to the damage caused to rows that run outside of the wheel tracks. In most cases the damage is caused by compaction and the reduced oxygen, nutrient and water holding capacity that ensues. In the photo displayed here, you can see arrows pointing towards two sets of straight yellow lines. These yellow lines indicate areas of depressed yield caused by sprayer wheel tracks. The yellow areas extend outside of the wheel tracks to produce this bell effect that reduces yield in adjacent rows. The agronomist who shared this photo with me noticed an 18% yield reduction from wheel tracks that only covered 8% of the field. The additional 10% yield loss was coming from rows outside of the sprayer tracks. After further investigation, they noticed cracks in the soil caused by compaction that extended out from the wheel tracks to the adjacent rows then disappeared.
Spraying is the most compaction prone operation we have given the weight of our sprayers and the moisture conditions at the time of spraying. In the past I’ve recommended we run duals on the front wheel assist tractors and our pull-type sprayers. Those with high clearance sprayers can run 24.5” flotation tires at herbicide timing but have to narrow down to the 15” or 18” tires at fungicide timing. Think about this. It’s wet and you decide to apply a fungicide. You lose 4% from wheel track damage during your high clearance spray application and another 10% from compaction outside of the wheel tracks. You’re trying to gain a 10% to 15% yield advantage from applying a fungicide only to lose 14% from trampling and compaction. You wonder why some folks can’t seem to find a response to fungicides? Perhaps we should take a second look at aerial applications during moist soil conditions. Food for thought. SL
Photo source: Robert Ruwoldt, Victoria, Australia
Compaction germinates weed seeds
This is one of those photos you have to see to believe. Robert Ruwoldt from Horsham, Victoria, a long time practitioner of controlled traffic farming, showed me a picture of weedy tire tracks from someone driving off the tramlines and across the field (shown right). The tracks were thick with wild oats, the only wild oats in this field.
How many opportunities would you have to see wild oats growing just in the wheel tracks when you know this is a controlled traffic field with zero compaction outside of the tramlines? This tells me that the 46% wheel traffic we apply each year during seeding, spraying and harvest perpetuates the cycle of problem weeds in our fields.
If the above photo doesn’t convince you that controlled traffic reduces weed pressure, then have a look at the photo below. Look closely and you’ll see two wide green rows where weeds are growing heavily inside the 120 inch centered wheel tracks in this controlled traffic system. Out of all the things I’ve learned about controlled traffic farming, I would have never guessed that improved weed control was one of them. SL
Photo source: Robert Ruwoldt, Victoria, Australia
Strobilurin fungicide update
I mentioned the use of strobilurin fungicides in the March 10th issue of Beyond Agronomy News. Strobis have unique qualities that provide more benefits than just disease protection. I attended a BASF meeting last week that focused on the benefits of strobilurin fungicides, namely Headline. Here’s a list to help explain what strobilurin fungicides do for the plant aside from disease protection.
- Stimulates nitrate reductase (an enzyme) activity, creating a higher nitrogen use efficiency.
- Enhances CO2 fixation, one of the most overlooked limiting factors in crop production.
- Stimulates antioxidant enzymes that get rid of harmful free radicals.
- Improves stress tolerance to drought, hail, ozone and frost.
- Reduces ethylene production, which causes leaf scenescence.
- Decreases respiration. Plants respire less to stay cool and take in more CO2.
- Reduces ozone damage to leaves. Picture sun spots on humans; plants get them as well.
- Protects chloroplasts which are the hub for chlorophyl production, thus improving photosynthesis.
- Neutralizes the damaging effects of of oxygen radicals.
- Increases the plant’s natural defence system.
- Delays chlorophyl breakdown, contributing to the stay green effect.
Headline is one of the most commonly used fungicides in the US corn and soybean belt. BASF will tell you that Headline reduces ethylene production by 80% versus Quilt at 40%. Ethylene production causes plants to shut down and begin to scenesce leaves. Delaying ethylene production extends the grain fill period and ultimately yield. Another interesting trial showed the plants ability to withstand 40oC temperatures for fourteen hours without serious effects. The benefits I’ve listed all sound great, but you still need moisture to grow grain. Don’t expect strobis to work miracles. If you plan on using a fungicide this year, be sure to book ahead, especially if it’s Quilt, Headline or Stratego. SL
Some perspective on carbon contracting
March 23, 2009- We are about to finish off the second compliance period in the Alberta GHG offset system and it is scheduled to run another six (6) years. So with this much more time to run, the potential for additional GHG offset protocols being developed is almost a certainty. For a list of potential protocol areas being examined see http://www.carbonoffsetsolutions.ca/offsetprotocols/protocolsreview.html, which includes nitrogen use efficiency, reduced summerfallow, conversion to perennial forage, pasture management, and others.
It is these new protocols that will add depth and breadth to the marketplace, as they create new GHG offset opportunities and increase supply to the marketplace. It is also very likely that additional GHG offset protocols affecting the same lands for the same time periods as the existing Tillage protocol will be developed. This can be viewed as a “layering” of GHG offset protocols. Each new GHG offset protocol considers the already existing protocol and these new protocols may only provide an incremental increase in the GHG offset quantity from a given acre of land.
The “layering” concept is important when considering the aggregation fees required to monetize the GHG offsets, or the costs to create and market carbon credits. As the complexity of new GHG protocols increase possibly without a corresponding increase GHG offset quantity, existing aggregation contracts may not be attractive to the firms that issued them. Consider an aggregation firm that only charges what it thinks is required for the Tillage protocol. Later a more complicated protocol that affects that same land, including early action years (2002-2007) becomes available. If this had not been anticipated, then the aggregation fees in the existing contract which apply to all applicable protocols may not be enough. The aggregation firm walks away. This risk increases as the aggregation fees charged in the existing contract declines. If the farmer wants to take advantage of the new protocol, or layer it on to the one already applied, then the existing contract must be exited and a new aggregation firm selected. All this will significantly reduce the net returns to the farmer. This may very well be a case of the lowest cost not being the best deal.
Reference: Bruce Love, Preferred Carbon
Carbon values are unchanged from last week, with activity and interest winding down a bit as the second compliance period draws to a close.
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author only and are not intended to represent financial advice.
Market News
Fundamental Analysis
World Production in Million Metric Tonnes
|
Production |
Ending Stocks |
Ending Stocks |
|||||
|
2007-08 |
Mar-09 |
Change |
2007-08 |
Mar-09 |
Change |
5 Year Avg |
|
|
Rapeseed |
48.4 |
57.5 |
19% |
3 |
6.1 |
97% |
4.6 |
|
Barley |
133.2 |
154.5 |
16% |
18 |
29.5 |
63% |
25.7 |
|
Wheat |
610.6 |
684.4 |
12% |
119 |
155.9 |
31% |
138.6 |
|
Corn |
792.3 |
787.1 |
-1% |
128 |
144.6 |
13% |
125.9 |
|
Soybeans |
220.9 |
223.3 |
1% |
53 |
49.9 |
-6% |
54 |
Updated USDA report March 11th, 2009.
Technical Indicators
I have set up these weekly updates to include market entry indicators to help you improve the timing of your grain marketing. Also, I added market trend indicators to give you a sense of the short and long term market trends.
May Canola http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart.php?cbase=CA&market=RS&cterm=59
Support: $414.07
Resistance 1: $419.57
Resistance 2: $425.07
Market Entry
The Bollinger Bands are indicating an overbought market. This market is EXTREMELY BULLISH. Everything in this indicator is pointing to higher prices.
Market Trend
The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is DOWN. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is UP. MACD is in bullish territory.
May Feed Barley http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart.php?cbase=BA&market=AB&cterm=59
Support: $151.00
Resistance 1: $151.00
Resistance 2: $151.00
Market Entry
The Bollinger Bands are indicating an oversold condition. Volatility appears to be declining. The market has been extremely bullish, however currently the market has lost some of its technical bullishness.
Market Trend
The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is UP. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is UP. MACD is in bullish territory. However, the recent downturn in the MacdMA may indicate a short term decline within the next few bars.
Dec Hard Red Spring Wheat http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart.php?cbase=MW&market=MW&cterm=59
Support: $6.37-2
Resistance 1: $6.48-6
Resistance 2: $6.60-2
Market Entry
The Bollinger Bands are indicating an overbought market. The market is overbought and appears to be encountering resistance. Look for a top in this area.
Market Trend
The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is DOWN. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is UP. Momentum is indicating an overbought market, and appears to be slowing. A modest downturn is possible here.
June Canadian Dollar http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart.php?cbase=CD&market=CD&cterm=69
Support: $0.798
Resistance 1: $0.808
Resistance 2: $0.818
Market Entry
The Bollinger Bands are indicating an overbought market. The market is EXTREMELY BULLISH. Everything in this indicator is pointing to higher prices
Market Trend
The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is UP. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is UP. Momentum is indicating an overbought market, and appears to be slowing. A modest downturn is possible here.
Glossary of Technical Terms http://www2.barchart.com/education/learning.asp
International Crop Weather News
United States: On the Plains, above-normal temperatures are returning as a high-pressure system moves to the east and winds become southerly. Pastures and winter grains remain stressed by drought on the southern High Plains, while the Red River (of the North) and its tributaries are rising due to melting snow and ice. In the Corn Belt, snow showers are developing in the upper Mississippi Valley, but cool, dry weather prevails elsewhere. Lowland flooding continues to subside in much of the central Corn Belt. In the South, cool, dry weather prevails. Corn planting and other spring fieldwork activities continue in the Deep South. Texas’ corn crop was 30% planted on March 15, compared to the 5-year average of 28%.
Europe: Occasional showers over much of northern and eastern Europe maintain favorable soil moisture for greening to vegetative winter grains and oilseeds. However, the wet weather slows small grain and corn planting. Sunny skies on the Iberian Peninsula promote winter wheat development.
Former Soviet Union: Widespread showers and mild weather in Ukraine and the Southern District in Russia favor winter grains but slow early spring fieldwork. Winter grains remain dormant in most areas, with greening confined to crop areas near the Black Sea coast and southernmost crop areas in the Southern District.
Southeast Asia: The axis of monsoon showers progresses slowly northward, bringing drier weather for rice maturation and harvesting in Java, Indonesia. Rainfall in the eastern Philippines maintains abundant soil moisture for rice and corn, but slows harvest activities. In Vietnam, warm, sunny weather aids winter-spring rice harvesting in the south and rice development in the north.
South Asia: Warm, dry weather in northern portions of India and Pakistan accelerates wheat development. Heavy showers in southern India slow rabi (winter) rice and groundnut harvesting.
Middle East: Showers in northwestern Iran provide much-needed moisture for winter wheat and barley. Showers continue in Turkey and Syria, maintaining favorable conditions for vegetative winter grains.
North Africa: Widespread showers maintain abundant soil moisture for vegetative to heading wheat and barley.
North Africa: Drier weather returns, promoting wheat and barley development.
Australia: In southern Queensland and northern New South Wales, a pocket of mostly dry weather aids summer crop maturation and harvesting.
South America: Widespread, locally heavy rain slows soybean harvesting in key production areas of central Brazil, but the moisture was overall beneficial for safrinha corn and other secondary row crops. In central Argentina, warm, dry weather promotes the development of second-crop soybeans after several weeks of much-needed rain.
South Africa: Showery weather returns to the Corn Belt, maintaining favorable conditions for filling summer crops.
Canada: Seeding commences in mid-April in Southern regions and early May in Northern regions.
