Agronomist Notes

Last Thursday I had the pleasure of hosting a wine and cheese event for clients and friends to present my recent Nuffield travels. Many enjoyed learning about how others farm in different parts of the world and some left wondering how inter-row seeding and controlled traffic would work on their farm.

A highlight my evening was describing my experience of harvesting a wheat crop that was pushing 257 bu/ac in New Zealand. It’s inspired me to shoot for a world record canola crop with a client in 2009. We shall see!

This week we’ll look at the importance of uniform crop emergence and run the numbers to see if increasing emergence uniformity could pay for a precision drill. Next, we’ll look at more seedling emergence statistics to get our minds focused on doing everything we can to get the crop out of the ground quickly. We’ll also look at estimating seedling mortality based on soil types, temperature and seeding date. Bruce Love of Preferred Carbon will provide his weekly carbon market update and we'll finish up with fundamental and technical grain market news and international crop weather. SL

Agronomy

Running the numbers on planting depth and emergence

We all know that uneven seeding depth and inaccurate seed placement costs us money. Aside from hoe drills with on-row depth control, many of our regular type hoe drills with wider openers (3” to 6”) will leave a seeding depth range of approximately 1.5 inches from top to bottom. A seeding depth range of this magnitude could mean a difference in emergence of approximately one to ten days depending on soil moisture, temperature, texture and residue. The question is, what kind of a return on investment will improved seeding depth generate and is it worth it to purchase a precision, on-row depth control air drill?

In the graph shown here, you can see that 7% of the seeds planted 2 inches deep emerged 2 days later than seeds planted at 1 inch (79% to 72%). Nine percent of seeds planted at 3 inches emerged 4 days later than seeds planted at 1 inch. In this example, we have the potential to increase the seeding depth uniformity in 7% to 9% of the population we seed.  

To add to the numbers above, research in Manitoba by Gan, Stobbe and Moes showed that wheat plants emerging early Day 1 to Day 3 yielded 1.4 times higher than plants emerging from Days 4 to 6 and 3.2 times higher than the yield of plants emerging late Day 7 to 9. Using these statistics, let’s run the numbers.

Average wheat yield of 50 bu/ac increasing 7% of crop emergence by 3 days
50 bu/ac x 7% x 1.4 = 4.9 bu/ac
4.9 bu/ac x $6.00 bu = $29.40/acre gain
$29.40 ÷ 7 = $4.20/acre for each percentage increase in seedling emergence by 3 days

JD 1830 Air Hoe Drill: 40 foot on 12.5” spacing with openers= $87,700
JD 1870 Air Hoe Drill Hydraulic Precision Depth Control with openers: 40 foot, 12” spacing = $122,000

In this example, you could generate an additional $29.40 return per acre by increasing 7% of your crop emergence by 3 days. The added cost of purchasing a JD 1870 hoe drill with precision depth control over a regular 1830 hoe drill is an additional $34,300 or 39% more.  Based on this example, each percentage increase in seedling emergence would generate a $4.20 return per acre. Think about that! If you could get just one percent of your crop or 1 plant per square foot to emerge 3 days faster, you could generate an additional $16,800 on a 4,000 acre farm. It wouldn’t take much to pay for the precision drill. Food for thought I think. SL

Reference and photo source: http://www.ifao.com/PDFs/Producing-High-Yield-Wheat-Needham.pdf

Consistent seeding depth pays dividends in yield and maturity

One of the reasons we see a movement towards the John Deere 1870, Morris Contour, SeedMaster and Seedhawk-style drills is the benefit of even seed placement. Precision seed placement translates into higher yields and even maturity when compared to opener styles and air seeders that leave you with 1 to 3 inches of seed depth variability.

Though you may not have a precision drill, paying attention to the details can pay dividends. Dr. Yantai Gan with Agricuture Canada at Swift Current says crops seeded unevenly are the worst. Shallow seeded plants emerge several days faster and compete with the slower emerging, deep seeded plants for water, light and soil nutrients, reducing their yield by up to 50% or more. There can be 10 days between the first and last plants to emerge, which can be crucial in a frost year.

Dr. Gan says frost or no frost, crops seeded shallow and uniform have a definite edge. They emerge more quickly and evenly, mature faster, and have higher yields. He led a three-year study that showed canola, mustard, and flax planted uniformly at ¾ of an inch in early May emerged 3 to 5 days faster than seeds planted at 2 inches and had yields up to 25% higher. With lentils, the yield increased up to 15% at ¾ of an inch. Peas and chick peas only yielded 4% more due to their seed size and vigour at deeper depths. A small plot study with wheat showed a 27% increase in yield at 1 inch compared to 2 inches. "Small seeds like canola should never go deeper than an inch, no matter how dry it is. They exhaust energy pushing through deeper soil and it weakens the plant," he stresses.

And it's important to remember the deeper you seed in the spring, the colder it stays, says Dr. Guy Lafond, an Agriculture Canada research scientist at the Indian Head Research Station. Research trials have shown crops emerge up to 17 days faster with a soil temperature increase from 5 to 15 degrees Celsius, says Dr. Lafond. SL

Reference: reducedtillage.ca

Estimating seedling mortality is more art than science

The most difficult part of calculating seeding rates is trying to determine the correct seedling mortality. Many industry professionals use a safe baseline of 20% mortality in cereals and 50% mortality in canola. Although safe, you can sometimes end up with heavy plant stand densities which increase lodging potential or thin kernels from heavy crop competition. So where's the balance? In a perfect world, we would have a calculator that included scores for seeding date, moisture, soil temperature, soil texture, crop rotation, residue cover, insect and disease history, seed lot vigour, openers, fertilizer placement, and seedbed utilization- just to name a few. However, we don't have such a tool.     

Ideally, seedling mortality should be calculated the day of seeding while including all the factors listed above. Since very few people have time to do that, I'll share some rules of thumb I use when determining seedling mortality. You'll find my rule of thumb for estimating seedling mortality for the soils I work with listed below. By no means scientific, the numbers are simple averages across the fields I've managed over the last five years. Take them as a reference point for when and where I find increased seedling mortality.
 
Clay Soils
Soil temp less than 5 0C
Seeding date before May 1
Mortality: 20%

Soil temp higher than 5 0C
Seeding date after May 1
Mortality: 15%

Clay Loam Soils
Soil temp less than 5 0C
Seeding date before May 1
Mortality: 15%

Soil temp higher than 5 0C
Seeding date after May 1
Mortality: 10%

Loam to Sandy Loam Soils
Soil temp less than 5 0C
Seeding date before May 1
Mortality: 10%

Soil temp higher than 5 0C
Seeding date after May 1
Mortality: 7%

In recent years, I have consistently found a 10% higher mortality rate when seeding wheat into wheat stubble. There are many reasons for why we lose more plants in wheat on wheat stubble, like cooler soils under heavier residue, higher disease pressure and seeding depth variability. I suggest you count your plant stand densities and make your own observations on your farm so you can begin fine tuning your seeding rates. SL

Seeding rate calculation
Seeding rate (lb/ac) = desired plant population/ft² × 1,000 K wt. (g) ÷ seedling survival rate (in decimal form such as 0.90) ÷ 10.4

Carbon credits and rented land

March 30, 2009- So, who gets the carbon credits under the Alberta Tillage Protocol when it is applied to rented land under no-till or minimum tillage? That’s a good question and one that has had a lot of attention paid to it over time.

The carbon credit, or Green House Gas (GHG) offset, is created by voluntary management decisions that result in the measurable reduction of GHG emissions. The Tillage Protocol identifies three (3) main sources of GHG reductions as a result of no-till and minimum tillage management: 1) carbon that is sequestered in the soil primarily as a result of higher organic matter levels, 2) reduced nitrous oxide emissions, and 3) reduced fossil fuel use. Therefore, some of the carbon credits are due to management decisions that reduce emissions and the soil sequestering carbon. So, when the land manager is not also the land owner, the ownership of the GHG reduction is arguably not that clear. We could even argue that they are tied to both the land owner and the renter.

Originally government regulators, the folks that created and recognize the GHG offsets, wanted to have the carbon credits become more like a property right. This would have certainly defined ownership, but it didn’t recognize the actions taken by the renter to create the GHG offset. There was also some other issues that favored the property right concept, including the issue of reversals. In particular, the chance that over time the soil would get tilled again and release all that carbon that had been sequestered as a result of the minimum and no-till management. As a property right, you always knew who to claw back the carbon credits from. In the end, the Alberta Government decided to reduce the volume of carbon credits created by assuming a certain amount of reversals per year would happen.

With some of our history lesson out of the way, the ownership of the carbon credits was still uncertain. This is where the carbon industry (GHG reduction project developers) stepped up and created some clarity, by having the land owner “assign” the potential carbon credits to the land renter. This is now accepted practice in the industry.

The “assignment” applies only to the ownership of the data as it relates to the creation of the GHG offset, or carbon credits. So the land renter typically gets the land owner to assign the ownership of the data to them in return for a share of the carbon credit revenues. So if there was any doubt who owned the carbon credits as a result of applying the Tillage Protocol, there isn’t any longer.

GHG Policy Watch

It appears that our Federal Government is firmly entrenched in a holding pattern until the USA comes up with a policy to reduce GHGs. In particular, the Federal GHG reduction plan “Turning the Corner” has missed all of its stated deadlines and Minister Prentice’s office called today to say that “we are reviewing the Plan in light of recent events including economic conditions and the current status of GHG policy in the USA.” We interpret this to mean that Canada will wait until it is relatively certain just how extensive the US GHG reductions will be. Once relatively certain, look for an announcement that has Canada on a 3 to 5 year path to harmonize with US reductions, or face trade actions.

Other interesting news included the recent announcement by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) that GHGs are hazardous to human health. This paves the way for the EPA to regulate GHGs, and it gives President Obama an option to regulate GHGs if the Senate fails to deliver on the proposed cap-and-trade bill due out this year. Also, President Obama has invited the top sixteen (16) economies to meet at the end of April to get going on forming an international agreement on climate change policy. This is all leading up to the end of year meeting in Copenhagen where the world will meet and try to come up with an agreement to follow the Kyoto Protocol that expires in 2012.

Reference: Bruce Love, Preferred Carbon

Look for a recap of the Alberta carbon market for the 2008 compliance year in next week’s column. The true-up period for 2008 compliance ends this Tuesday, March 31, 2009.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author only and are not intended to represent financial advice.

Market News

Fundamental Analysis

World Production in Million Metric Tonnes  

	Production			Ending Stocks			Ending Stocks
	2007-08	Mar-09	Change	2007-08	Mar-09	Change	5 Year Avg
Rapeseed	48.4	57.5	19%	3	6.1	97%	4.6
Barley	133.2	154.5	16%	18	29.5	63%	25.7
Wheat	610.6	684.4	12%	119	155.9	31%	138.6
Corn	792.3	787.1	-1%	128	144.6	13%	125.9
Soybeans	220.9	223.3	1%	53	49.9	-6%	54

Updated USDA report March 11th, 2009.

Technical Indicators

I have set up these weekly updates to include market entry indicators to help you improve the timing of your grain marketing. Also, I added market trend indicators to give you a sense of the short and long term market trends.

Nov Canola http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart.php?cbase=CA&market=RS&cterm=B9

Support: $419.47
Resistance 1: $423.17
Resistance 2: $426.87

Market Entry
The Bollinger Bands are indicating an oversold market. This market is in oversold territory.

Market Trend
The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is DOWN. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is UP. MACD is in bullish territory. However, the recent downturn in the MacdMA may indicate a short term decline within the next few bars.

Oct Feed Barley http://futures.tradingcharts.com/intraday/BA/A9

Support: $152.00
Resistance 1: $152.00
Resistance 2: $152.00

Market Entry
The Bollinger Bands are indicating an oversold condition. The market is EXTREMELY BEARISH. Everything in this indicator is pointing to lower prices

Market Trend
The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is DOWN. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is DOWN. MACD is in bearish territory.

Dec Hard Red Spring Wheat http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart.php?cbase=MW&market=MW&cterm=59

Support: $6.02-5
Resistance 1: $6.14-1
Resistance 2: $6.25-5

Market Entry
The Bollinger Bands are indicating an oversold market.

Market Trend
The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is DOWN. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is UP.

Sept Canadian Dollar http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart.php?cbase=CD&market=CD&cterm=99

Support: $0.780
Resistance 1: $0.798
Resistance 2: $0.816

Market Entry
The Bollinger Bands are indicating an overbought market. The market is EXTREMELY BULLISH. Everything in this indicator is pointing to higher prices

Market Trend
The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is DOWN. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is UP. However, the recent downturn in the MacdMA may indicate a short term decline within the next few bars.

Glossary of Technical Terms http://www2.barchart.com/education/learning.asp 

International Crop Weather News

Queensland, Australia update:

“After half the state being in flood earlier in summer you would suspect Queensland is in for a big crop. This is doubtful as the majority of the cropping area has had patchy rain at best. There has been a large increase in Mung bean planting with a late crop achieving good prices. $550 to $650 AU. Central Queensland is in a better position than the Downs, with an area in the south having good conditions. Fertilizer is on the way up $670 per tonne for urea. Nitrogen left over from chick pea crops is almost nil. This has caught out producers as wheat following chickpeas usually means no extra nitrogen. As usual the weather is our biggest challenge. At this early stage I suspect area planted will be down 15 to 20% from last year as producers were burnt with high inputs and tough marketing.” Ronald Thompson, Queensland

United States: In the West, snow storms linger across the northern and central Rockies and parts of the Intermountain region, but cool, dry weather prevails elsewhere. On the Plains, blizzard warnings are in effect for southern North Dakota and much of South Dakota. Snow is adding unwanted moisture to already flooded river basins in the north-central U.S. Farther south, pastures and winter grains in eastern Colorado, the northern panhandle of Texas, Kansas (excluding the northwest), and much of Oklahoma are benefiting from recent soil moisture improvements. In the Corn Belt, cool, dry weather covers the region between storms. Soil moisture ranges from excessive in many areas from Iowa and northern Missouri into Lower Michigan to locally short in the Ohio Valley. In the South, mild, dry weather prevails in the wake of last week’s heavy rain and locally severe thunderstorms. Fieldwork remains delayed in many areas due to soggy soils. Last week’s rainfall ranged from 4 to 10 inches in many areas from Louisiana to Georgia and western Florida.

Europe: Drier weather in central and western Europe favors small grain and sugarbeet planting. Cold, unsettled weather in Poland and the Baltic’s keeps winter grains and oilseeds mostly dormant.

Former Soviet Union: In Ukraine and southern Russia, widespread rain and snow continue to boost moisture reserves for winter grains but slow early spring fieldwork. Seasonably cool weather keeps winter grains dormant in most areas, with greening confined to crop areas near the Black Sea coast and southernmost crop areas in the Southern District.

Southeast Asia: Showers continue to move northward, bringing moisture to oil palm in Peninsular Malaysia. Drier weather continues to benefit rice harvesting in Java, Indonesia.

East Asia: Warm weather eases winter wheat and rapeseed out of dormancy, while light showers benefit greening crops. Dry weather aids planting of spring corn in the Sichuan Basin and early double-crop rice in the south.
South Asia: Showers and thunderstorms in northern portions of India and Pakistan slow winter wheat and rapeseed maturation and early harvesting. Scattered showers in southern India slow rabi (winter) rice and groundnut harvesting.

Middle East: Showers continue in Turkey and Syria, maintaining favorable conditions for vegetative winter grains. Above-normal temperatures accelerate winter wheat and barley development in northwestern Iran.

North Africa: Scattered showers maintain ideal conditions for heading to filling wheat and barley.

Australia: In southern Queensland and northern New South Wales, relatively dry weather continues to benefit maturing cotton and sorghum, aiding dry down and early harvesting.

South America: Moderate to heavy rain increases moisture for safrinha corn and other secondary row crops in most major production areas of central Brazil. Dry weather aids soybean harvesting in southern Brazil, but more rain will be needed soon for safrinha corn and winter wheat. In Argentina, warmth and dryness advance the maturity of summer grains, oilseeds, and cotton.

South Africa: Cool, showery weather slows the development of corn and other summer crops.

Canada: Seeding commences in mid-April in Southern regions and early May in Northern regions.