Agronomist Notes
I've long been a proponent of determining seeding rates by targeting specific plant stand densities and calculating thousand kernel weights. In a world of tight margins, we simply cannot afford to make the mistake of seeding too heavy or too light. I've been collecting seed samples over the last week and made some startling discoveries and some perfect examples of why we shouldn't seed by the bushel. It's simply not accurate enough. How do we determine the correct plant stand densities? Should we continue to seed every field at the same seeding rate? I know it's nice to set the seeder and go but are we missing something? Let's discuss it.
Agronomy
Would you like higher crop yields, better weed competition, earlier maturity, fewer tillers and shorter plant heights in your cereals? Choosing the correct seeding rate through the thousand kernel weight method can help you attain these goals. Mark Twain once said, "the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result." Seeding the same amount of seed in (bu/ac) each year doesn't mean you will get the same plant population (result). Research has shown that varieties of barley and oat, for instance, can vary some 40 % in seed size and weight, which will dramatically affect the final plant population. I will show you an example later on. Pea seed can vary up to 100 %. Also, differently shaped seeds flow at different rates in the drill. To calibrate the seed drill properly, it is very important to use the actual thousand kernel weight of your own seed when choosing seed rates.
Steps to Calculating Seeding Rates
- Take a germination and vigor test. I like to have a disease test done as well to determine what seed treatments we should be focusing on to control any seed born infections, or find another seed supply.
- Count out 1,000 kernels. Before you say yah right Steve, you can count out 100 seeds and multiply it by 10 to get your thousand kernels. You may call it cheating, but I call it efficiency and know that the either method yields you the same number.
- Choose a target plant stand density per square foot. You can get an idea by looking at Ropintheweb's seeding rate information at
- Estimate the seedling mortality. For example, I use 4% mortality on wheat and barley for the farms I work with based on experience. You may see more or less mortality depending on your seeding practices.
- Plug the numbers in the formula to determine your seeding rate (lbs/ac).
Seeding rate (lb/ac) = desired plant population/ft² x 1,000 kernel wt. (g) ÷ seedling survival rate (0.90) ÷ 10
The seedling survival rate is the germination rate minus the estimated seedling mortality rate. For example, if we have 99% germination and estimate 4% seedling mortality, we come up with a 95% seedling survival rate.
The online seeding rate calculators can be found at:
Cereals: http://www.agric.gov.ab.ca/app19/loadSeedRateCalc
Pulses/Oilseeds: http://www.agric.gov.ab.ca/app19/calc/crop/otherseedcalculator.jsp
Plant Stand Densities
Average plant stand densities in Alberta are 24 plants/ft2 in wheat, 22 plants/ft2 in barley, 12 plants/ft2 in canola and 8 plants/ft2 in peas. Now, that being said, I can't stand averages! I encourage you to do your own testing on your farm to determine what seeding rates work well for you. For example, I target 30 plants/ft2 on some fields and 24 plants/ft2 on others. Altering plant stand densities based on field productivity potential makes perfect sense but very few do it. It doesn't make sense to target the same plant stand density on sandy soil vs a clay-loam soil. It seems that every farmer knows which of his fields are lighter or which fields are more productive. I suggest categorizing your fields by low, medium and high productivity and target your seeding rates accordingly.
The example below is based on seed samples taken last week. The two-row barley variety is Conlon, which is known for its heavy bushel weight. The samples were taken from two different farms about 60 km apart.
Example: Colon Barley
West Farm: Seeding rate (lb/ac) = 22 plants/ft2 x 48 grams / (99% - 4%) / 10 = 111 lbs/ac.
East Farm: Seeding rate (lb/ac) = 22 plants/ft2 x 58 grams / (99% - 4%) / 10 = 134 lbs/ac.
So, to achieve the same plant stand density on both farms using the same variety, we need to seed 23 lbs/ac more on the East Farm. The East Farm has the heaviest gram weight I've ever seen in a barley sample!
Here’s an example of wheat to show you how varietal difference can have a significant impact as well. The two varieties were grown on the same farm.
Example: Wheat
AC Harvest: Seeding rate (lb/ac) = 30 plants/ft2 x 32 grams / (99% - 4%) / 10 = 101 lbs/ac.
AC Superb: Seeding rate (lb/ac) = 30 plants/ft2 x 37 grams / (99% - 4%) / 10 = 117 lbs/ac.
So, we must seed the AC Superb 16 lbs/ac heavier to achieve the same plant stand density.
Let's do the math on the AC Harvest to calculate the cost savings between seeding by the bushel and the thousand kernel weight method. If we normally seed at two bu/ac we would be using 120 lbs/ac. The math above says we need to seed AC Harvest at 101 lbs/ac to achieve 30 plants/ft2.
Steve’s quick math:
Seed lbs/ac: 120 lbs - 101 lbs/ac = 19 lbs/ac
1,000 acres of wheat: 19 lbs/ac x 1000 ac = 19,000 lbs of seed
19,000 lbs of seed / 120 lbs/bu = 158 bushels
158 bushels x $5.00/bu = $791.66
158 bushels x $2.00/bu seed treatment = $316.00
We saved $1,107.66 ($791.66 + $316.00) or $1.10 per acre in seed and seed treatment across 1000 acres of wheat by using the thousand kernel weight method. The best part is that you've sacrificed nothing and improved your seeding rate accuracy. Now do the math for your barley, canola and peas and see what you come up with.
Market News
Grain World ’07:World Wheat Output To Climb
Rising acreage in major wheat producing countries combined with good growing conditions should result in world wheat output climbing in 2007-08, an analyst said at the Canadian Wheat Board’s annual Grain World conference. Jason Newton, a CWB wheat market analyst, projected world wheat production in 2007-08 at just over 600 million metric tons, which would represent a 35 million ton jump over the previous year. “The key to the wheat market will be corn,†he said, noting that wheat prices will be taking their cue from that commodity.
Newton forecasts that there will be a move to more lower-quality wheat's in 2007-08 as a return to more normal weather patterns are experienced in the major wheat-producing countries. Another factor that could still determine wheat output, however, will be the level of investment from managed money accounts, Newton said. In 2006, money under management in managed futures totaled US$170 billion compared to around US$130 billion in 2005. Wheat area in the European Union was forecast by Newton at about 23 million hectares, which would be slightly higher than the 2006-07 level of around 22.0 million. Wheat acreage in the U.S. was seen climbing 3.5 million acres in 2007-08 to around the 59.0 million acre level. Part of the jump in U.S. wheat output will be associated with the fact that there are fewer drought-affected winter wheat growing regions heading into the new crop year. Wheat seeded area in Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan was seen jumping 2.0 million hectares in 2007-08 to around the 44.0 million hectare level, Newton projected.
Grain World 07: Oilseed Production Encouraged In 2007-08
The 2007-08 season will be a year in which Canadian farmers will be able to produce as large a canola crop as possible and not feel the bearish effects of large production at the farm gate, an agriculture consultant said at the Canadian Wheat Board’s annual Grain World conference. “The trend occurs maybe once every 10 years,†said Greg Kostal, of Kostal Ag Consulting. “Essentially, the shift to a demand base from a supply one, is the key.†Kostal said the shift in demand mainly reflected the new energy needs such as biofuels. The US, Asia and Europe were seen as just a few examples of where increased vegetable oil demand was seen being used in the biodiesel sector. He also noted that demand from the food sector will also keep global vegetable oils on the tight side. China and India were cited as two potential growth markets for vegetable oils given the potential growth in those economies. World vegetable oil production and consumption were both expected to hit 120 million metric tons each in 2007-08, which will be up from the 118 million to 119.0 million anticipated in 2006-07, Kostal said.
Grain World 07 - Canola and Sunseed To Fuel Biodiesel Demand
Biodiesel production alone in 2006/07 was estimated at roughly 8 million metric tons, which would compare with just 2 million during 2004/05, Nancy DeVore, senior economic analyst with Bunge Global Agribusiness said. However, by 2009/10, biodiesel production globally will be around the 16 million ton level. Supplying the biodiesel market with the appropriate vegetable oils will be the challenge, DeVore said, as demand was easily seen outstripping production. She noted that palm oil production is a function of mature growing areas, which means that output in the short run has a limited ability to respond. Soybean production, meanwhile, was currently seen as a function of soymeal demand, given that 80% of the soybean is meal, and only 19% oil. The best chances of meeting the biodiesel demand will be in soft seeds, meaning canola and sunseed, DeVore said, noting that production of these commodities does respond to price, but there will still be a year or two lag.
Outlook For New and Old Crop Canola
A market analyst feels old crop canola has peaked, but new crop may experience an upward trend over the next several months. Greg Kostal of Kostal Ag Consulting notes ample resistance for old crop has been demonstrated at $390 per tonne. He adds unless production issues impact the yet to be planted new crop, that's probably as high as the market is willing to go. From a new crop perspective, Kostal believes with prices in that $400 to $420 per tonne range, that provides a good opportunity. Kostal believes new crop canola prices are set to rise, but to reach the $450 per tonne range the market needs to see $9 plus per bushel soybeans and positive biofuel margins. If only one of those conditions is met then it will probably trade in the low $400's, and if neither is met high $300's is probably where new crop canola will hover.
CWB Wheat
- The CWB has a strong sales program on the books for #1 CWRS (all protein levels). When rail logistic issues get straightened out, growers can expect strong movement right through to the end of the crop year.
- In the meantime, CWB movement will be targeting #1 CWRS 13.3% and higher to cover existing sales out of the St. Lawrence and Vancouver.
- Low protein #1 CWRS on the other hand, will likely be slow to move on both CN and CP for nearby shipping weeks.
- Fixed Price contracts look attractive although the basis levels could be better. Today basis level is $5.73/tonne and historically around that $15.00/tonne range.
CWB Durum
- Durum movement to the West Coast is focused primarily on high protein #1 CWAD to cover sales to Japan.
- Movement for #2/3 CWAD has slowed right down as buyers have been weaned off lower grades in favour of top grade CWAD’s.
- #1 CWAD (all proteins) continues to be strong mover to the St. Lawrence and the US domestic market. This should continue through the end of the year, as global durum demand is steady.
Feed Wheat
- This is the time period when road restrictions and seeding will affect deliveries; therefore, premiums over the current values will be required to keep the grain flowing.
- Elevator space is at a premium due to the CN rail strike and there are areas of the Prairies with substantial amounts of snow.
- Depending on how the spring thaw occurs, there may be areas that will not be able to move grain for two or three weeks.
- The fixed price contract as of Friday March 2nd was $206.36/tonne, which looks fairly attractive.
Feed Barley
- Export competition in feed barley is expected to increase on the strength of corn values and tight of carry out stocks
- There continues to be no fresh news to push the market higher and little commercial participation has kept values in check.
- Spot Lethbridge values are $175/MT with a carry for deferred months.
Canola
- The ongoing CN Rail strike continued to hang over the canola market. While the federal government introduced legislation on Friday to end the two-week strike, it will likely take a number of days for the back-to-work order to pass in the House of Commons, which means transportation disruptions may continue for the foreseeable future, and will keep end users on the sidelines in canola.
- With a bearish technical outlook, lack of exporter demand, losses in soybeans, and strength in the Canadian dollar further movement to the downside could be ahead.
- The export market remains very, very quiet as nobody seems to be interested in purchasing anything prior to seeing where the floor/support of this market comes into play.
