Agronomist Notes

I spent most of last week inspecting fields for weeds, temperature and moisture. The ground temperature averaged 7^oC (45^oF) at 3 inches last week, which is a perfect start for germination. Barley, wheat and canola will germinate at 3, 4 and 5^oC respectively. Here we are at an ideal soil temperature, waiting for the ground to dry! With the moisture probe samples I’ve taken there’s an average of three feet of moisture. The cleavers, hawk’s beard, flixweed, stinkweed, quackgrass, volunteer wheat and canola are prime for the taking with a pre-burn application. Surprisingly, I haven’t seen any volunteer barley emerge yet.

Post-Harvest Spray – A Success Story

I had two producers apply a 1 L/ac post-harvest glyphosate application across the farm to control quackgrass, dandelions and Canada thistle last fall. We also applied pre-harvest glyphosate treatments at 1 L/ac to compare the results. The pre-harvest was done on August 13^th and the post-harvest on September 26^th - 29^th and October 5^th. The daytime air temperature during the later part of September and October was between 16 and 21^oC. The pre-harvest fields showed variable results. The post-harvest treatment showed no signs of perennials, an unmistakable success.

Note: If it wasn’t for the volunteer wheat coming at this time, we could have avoided a complete pre-burn application across both farms this spring!

Pre-burn

Weeds, such as winter annual cleavers, narrowleaf hawksbeard, volunteer canola, volunteer wheat, dandelion, foxtail barley and flixweed are coming on strong now. So far it looks like I’ll be recommending a mix of 0.5 L/ac glyphosate with a top-up of Express and Pre-Pass for the extreme hawksbeard and/or dandelion fields.

Agronomy

Seeding Speed – How Fast is Too Fast?

Seeding too fast can cause a number of problems that impact emergence resulting in reduced crop yield and/or crop quality.

The common speed range for most direct seeders is somewhere between 4.5 and 5.5 mph, but the speed at which any field can be seeded will depend on a number of interactive factors. These include soil type, soil moisture, opener design, soil flow around the opener, the crop to be seeded, and the previous crop residue – to name just a few.

Article: http://www.reducedtillage.ca/article.aspx?a=315

Pre-seed Weed Burn-down in Direct Seeding

Timing

Research conducted by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada in the Black and Brown soil zone has shown that glyphosate should be applied just prior to seeding. In those studies, glyphosate was applied 2-3 weeks before seeding, 1 day before, and 3-4 days after in narrow-hoe and simulated sweep seeding systems. In a narrow hoe-direct seeding system, wheat yield was greatest when glyphosate was applied 1 day before seeding. Yields were reduced by over 25% and 15% when glyphosate was applied 2-3 weeks before seeding and 3–4 days after seeding, respectively.

Article: http://www.reducedtillage.ca/docs/Pre-seed%20Weed%20Control%20revised%20April%202007.PDF

Pre-Seeding Burnoff Timing Trial

A burnoff application of glyphosate prior to emergence tended to improve yield and economic returns at all locations. Regardless of when the burnoff was applied, the weed control advantage was still obtained and provided an additional $12/ac return on average. The closer the burnoff is applied to crop emergence, the longer the weed-free period will be extended during early crop development. However, there are risks involved in delaying the burnoff application until after seeding. If weather conditions are not favourable prior to emergence, the opportunity for applying a burnoff can be lost. If a burnoff opportunity is missed, there is potential for weeds to reach a stage of development that will make them harder to control with an in-crop herbicide application.

Full article: http://www.canola-council.org/research_cpc.html#preseeding

I agree with the research findings as I’m not a big fan of post-seed spraying from past experience. Dust and soil cover weeds after a seeding pass and the disturbance causes plant stress as well, which leads to reduced weed control. If you get a timely rain right after seeding, you could likely go in with a glyphosate pass and control the weeds that are exposed if they’re not disturbed. The kicker is not knowing how many are buried that will come back to visit you later!

Weed Emergence This Week

Flixweed, narrow-leaved hawk’s beard, scentless chamomile, cleavers, shepherd’s purse, stinkweed, sweet clover, yellow whitlow-grass, dandelion, foxtail barley, quackgrass, volunteer alfalfa, volunteer wheat, biennial wormwood, peppergrass, downy brome, goat’s beard.

Market News

Wheat (CWRS)

Production is forecast to decline by 15%, with farmers shifting area into durum wheat, canola, oats and barley. Industrial use is expected to increase as new ethanol plants come on-line in western Canada, with total domestic use reaching a record 8.7 Mt. The CWB PRO for No.1 CWRS 11.5% is down by $3/t from last month, to $207/t in store Vancouver, $5/t lower than 2006-07, due to the stronger Canadian dollar outlook.

Barley

Production is forecast to increase by 20% due to higher area and yields. Supply is expected to increase only slightly, as lower carry-in stocks offset much of the higher production. The average off-Board feed barley price is forecast to decrease by $5/t from 2006-07 to $160/t.

Canola

Production is forecast to increase by 8% to a record 9.8 Mt as higher seeded area more than offsets lower yields. Supply is expected to increase to a record 11.7 Mt, as the higher output more than offsets the drop in carry-in stocks. Canola prices are expected to rise by about $20/t due to high US soyoil prices.

Durum

For 2007-08, production is forecast to increase by 17%, but remain below the 10- year average of 4.6 Mt. Supply is expected to fall by 10% to 6.4 Mt, the lowest since 2003-04, due to lower carry-in stocks. The CWB Pool Return Outlook (PRO) for No.1 CWAD 11.5% has been lowered by $4/t from the March forecast, due to the stronger Canadian dollar, and is now $223/t, $6/t higher than for 2006-07. The premium to CWRS wheat is expected to return to a near-normal $16/t.

Dry Peas

For 2007-08, production is forecast to increase because of a 2% rise in seeded area and higher yields, while supply decreases slightly, as lower carry-in stocks more than offset the increase in production. The average price, over all types, grades and markets, is expected to be the same as in 2006-07 due to the relatively stable world and Canadian supply.

Oats

Production is forecast to rise by 22% due to larger seeded area and yields. Supply is expected to increase by 10% as higher production more than offset lower carry-in stocks. The average nearby Chicago Board of Trade futures price for oats is forecast to fall by C$20/t from 2006-07 to $170/t.

Flax (excluding solin)

Production is expected to decrease sharply due to a significant drop in area and slightly lower yields. However, the decline in supply is expected to be moderated by higher carry-in stocks. Prices are forecast to rise on support from higher world vegetable oil and crude oil prices.

Corn

Production is forecast to increase by 24%, as area shifts into corn from wheat. The average price at Chatham, Ontario is forecast to increase by $15/t to $160/t largely due to higher US corn prices and normal crop quality.

Soybeans

Production is forecast to decline by 16% due to lower area seeded and sharply lower yields. Carry-out stocks are forecast to drop sharply, while prices increase on support from higher US soybean prices.

Source: Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada

CWB High Protein Wheat

The new CWB Wheat Storage Program will pay a premium and storage fees to farmers in selected areas of Western Canada to store top-grade milling wheat with 15% protein. Sign-up begins May 1 for the program, which will reserve stocks for sale in the 2007-08 crop year with a cap of 150,000t.

Full story: http://www.cwb.ca/public/en/newsroom/releases/2007/042507.jsp

Understanding the Basis

Good managers pay attention to the basis level because it varies significantly throughout the year. Variance of the basis can affect cash prices by as much as $10 to $30 per tonne of grain sold.

Through careful monitoring of the basis level a good marketer can best choose when and where to market grains for the most attractive prices. A good marketer will sell when the basis is attractive, and know how to lock-in the basis when it is advantageous to do so.

Full article: http://www.topmanagers.ca/TopicSubDetail.aspx?DocId=324 ¦

Weather Forecast Update

My weather sources predict there is potential for extreme heat during June and July or a 68% chance that temperatures will be above normal. Records show that 4 of the last ten hottest June-Julys were wetter than normal. The forecast also calls for above normal precipitation, which is analogous to 1970.

Bottom line: Get your seed in the ground.

Weather Confirmation

A source in Germany tells me the weather is still very dry and the rapeseed is in bloom. Germany produces roughly 37% of the European Unions rapeseed. Couple that with a continued drought in Australia, a warm and dry canola producing region in China and a late spring in Western Canada, my outlook for canola is bullish. Also, in spite of the US corn crop progressing slowly, and the potential for more soybean plantings, canola continues to hold its own.

Take a look at the average canola prices over the last ten years. Are we headed for $400/t canola? At this time, the long-term technical indicators report a 67% buy signal. ¦

Feed Barley

Lethbridge cash prices remained firm to close out April. Cash barley, delivered Lethbridge traded around $183/MT for April delivery. Bids for May hover around $180/MT while line companies hold firm with offers around $185/MT.

• Seasonal road bans are still in effect, and the approaching seeding activity should keep values firm as growers become reluctant to haul grain.
• Lethbridge feed lots continue to only book product out 2-3 weeks at a time. Feed lots are unwilling to pay a carry for forward months, which has forced line companies to widen basis levels and show an inverse in pricing for deferred months.
• US corn is currently priced at approx $190/MTdelivered Lethbridge vs $183/MT for local barley and $175/MT for wheat. US corn is priced under feed wheat at Winnipeg, approx $172/MT vs local wheat at $175/MT.
• Cattle volumes were lower and prices were mixed last week in Saskatchewan, as just under 8300 head went through provincial auction markets.

Source: AgPro