Agronomist Notes
Last week’s planting progress added another 10 to 20%, bringing seeded acres to 35-55% in our area. I know one producer with 12,000 acres finished already if you can imagine. We should see a large climb in seeded acres this week with the forecast calling for warmer weather all week.
There are peas and canola out of the ground already and perhaps some wheat to emerge this week. This pea seedling photo was taken May 10th near Beiseker, AB, in a field seeded April 14th. In the other picture, canola seeded April 28th is just starting to emerge from the barley stubble. Things are progressing nicely in spite of the cool weather.
In this week’s newsletter we’ll talk briefly about increasing seeding rates to boost maturity and list the top ten tips to speed up crop maturity. We’ll also look at chilling potential for those mid-April seeded wheat and barley crops.
Agronomy
Look at Increasing Wheat Seeding Rates to Boost Maturity
We’ll be hitting the May 14th mark this week, which is 120 days from the average first killing fall frost. I don’t like averages but I don’t like to push the maturity envelope too hard either. The majority of our canola and wheat varieties fall within the 105 to 110 day maturity range. For wheat I recommend a rate increase of 10% after May 14th to boost maturity. Higher seeding rates reduce tiller formation, which subsequently reduces time to maturity.
I don’t have scientific evidence to support the percentage of rate increase needed to boost maturity. However, in 2007 we seeded Harvest wheat at 110 lbs/acre on May 27th and seven days later seeded the same variety at 130 lbs/acre and found the same level of maturity at harvest time. I suggest trying a few different seeding rate increases, measuring the plant stand densities in crop and following up this harvest with maturity dates. SL
Steve’s 10 Tips for Speedy Maturity in Spring Seeded Crops
Minimize fertilizer and seed fill time. A huge amount of time can be saved if you’re organized.
Increase seeding rates. High plant populations reduce tiller formation.
Ensure optimum phosphorus fertility program. Phosphorus promotes early growth, root formation, seed production and maturity.
Seedplace phosphorus and potassium. These nutrients move slowly in cool wet soils.
Choose an early season variety. Naturally, earlier varieties require fewer days for maturity.
Control seeding depth to ensure uniformity. Even seeding depth promotes even maturity.
Seed shallow, no further than inch deep for cereals and ½ inch for canola in moist soils. Shallow seeding promotes speedy emergence.
Do not broadcast and incorporate canola or cereals. This delays maturity through uneven seeding depth and germination.
Ensure proper seed placement. Seed placement is key to a uniform emergence and even maturity.
Ensure seed placement is away from high nitrogen rates. This eliminates risk of fertilizer injury due to ammonia toxicity or salt injury.
Winter Annuals Are Getting Big
I’ve recently recommended some clients to increase glyphosate rates to 750ml/acre equivalent to control large winter annual flixweed, cleavers and narrow-leaved hawk’s beard. I’ve seen cleavers at anywhere from 4 to 6 whorl already and 6-inch tall flixweed. A 500ml/acre rate of glyphosate at this time may not be enough to control such weeds, especially under less than ideal conditions. SL
Chilling Injury Potential in Cereals
Here we are at May 13th and we’ve yet to experience more than two days with temperatures over 20oC this spring. Most producers have had three significant snowfall events or just plain old cold weather with a few showers. Overnight frosts of -1 to -3oC are still common. For those who sowed wheat or barley in mid to late April, there may be a potential for chilling injury. Chilling injury is not usually widespread, but it can be severe in individual fields and may require replanting.
The most stressful condition for germinating seeds is exposure to cold (<5oC), wet conditions immediately following planting. The problem occurs when a seed imbibes cold water which reduces the elasticity of the cellular membranes of the developing seedling. This can cause cell rupture and leakage, making the seed vulnerable to fungal and insect damage. Chilling injury may result in reduced seedling vigour and have a lasting effect on the growth of the plants.
Once the shoot emerges from the soil, considerable cold tolerance develops in the seedling. This is a function of the plant producing energy via photosynthesis instead of drawing it from the seed. When scouting early planted fields, be on the lookout for areas of reduced emergence, especially in wetter areas. Chilling injury can cause cork screwed seedlings in some cases, or rotten seeds with a developed but yellowed coleoptile.
I expect most of our early planted fields will emerge fine and do well. Those fields that do encounter problems can be addressed with early scouting, careful diagnosis, and timely replanting. SL
Market News
Commodity Index Funds Activity
Trading activity increased significantly week over week with traders looking bullish on soy oil, corn and soy meal. The funds increased their short position in wheat by 107% reflecting their bearish tone in this market. SL
|
Contracts |
Last Week |
This Week |
Position |
Change |
|
Wheat |
7,466 |
15,469 |
Net Short |
107% |
|
Corn |
160,915 |
180,939 |
Net Long |
12% |
|
Soybeans |
78,561 |
82,216 |
Net Long |
5% |
|
SoyOil |
15,367 |
19,152 |
Net Long |
25% |
|
SoyMeal |
31,177 |
35,958 |
Net Long |
15% |
Canadian Prairie Planting Progress
Planting progress is about 28 per cent complete across the Prairies. Manitoba is the furthest advanced with a little more than half planted. Saskatchewan and Alberta lag, especially in northern growing areas due to continued wet soil conditions. Southern areas are still extremely dry and need moisture to promote germination and crop emergence.
Source: CWB
US Winter Wheat Production Estimates
Winter wheat production is forecast at 1.78 billion bushels, up 17% from 2007. Expected area for harvest as grain or seed totals 40.2 million acres, up 12% from last year. Based on May 1 crop condition, the U.S. yield is forecast at 44.3 bushels per acre, up 2.1 bushels from the previous year. Hard Red production is up 5% from a year ago to 1.01 billion bushels. Soft Red production is up 54% and totals 551 million bushels. White production totals 215 million bushels, up 10% from a year ago.
Source: USDA
US Wheat Crop Late
USDA reports that 81% of the spring wheat crop is planted, up 3 points from the five-year average pace. However, cool soils continue to hinder emergence. Just 25% of the crop was emerged as of Sunday, down from the average pace of 43%. The winter wheat crop is 36% headed as of Sunday, down from 47% in 2007 and down from the five-year average pace of 53%. The slow pace of wheat development has the potential to reduce yields.
Source: Farm Futures Daily
Global Wheat Production Estimates
Global wheat production for 2008/09 is projected at a record 656 million tons, up 8% from 2007/08, and up 5% from the previous record in 2004/05. Higher production is projected for most of the world's major exporting countries including Australia, Canada, EU-27, Russia, and Ukraine. Strong world prices and favorable weather in most of EU-27 and FSU-12 raised production for 2008. Production is also projected higher in Brazil, China, and India. Partly offsetting are reductions for Argentina and Kazahkstan. The only significant weather problems for winter wheat remain in drought-stricken Middle East and North Africa countries. World wheat ending stocks are projected at 124 million tons, up 13% from the current year's projection.
Source: USDA
Global Oilseed Production Estimates
Global oilseed production for 2008/09 is projected at 423 million tons, up 32.2 million tons from 2007/08. Oilseed production is projected to recover from the first year-to-year decline in global oilseed production since 1995/96. U.S. oilseed production gains account for 40% of the global increase. Total foreign supplies are projected to increase by 4% from 2007/08.
Source: USDA
World Barley Production
World barley trade is expected to rebound in 2008/09 on higher global production. Australian, Ukrainian, and EU-27 exports are forecast to rise relative to last year on robust crops and continued strong import demand in Asia and North Africa (Japan, China, Morocco and Tunisia). Imports to the Middle East will grow following poor harvests due to drought in the region.
Source: http://www.cattlenetwork.com/Content.asp?ContentID=220388
Argentina to Plant 8% Less Wheat in 2008
According to the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange, Argentine farmers, who began sowing 2008-09 wheat, will reduce the growing area by 8% due to conflict with the government. Argentine farmers are staging strike protests against a tax hike on grain exports. The Exchange reports that 5 million hectares will be planted with wheat this year, 450,000 less than last year which produced 15.4 million tones. The USDA estimates Argentina’s 2008/09 wheat harvest at 15 million tones.
Source: FIMAT
Eastern Side of Australia Still Dry
The world has been counting on a rebound in Australian production after two years of devastating drought. However, the government in New South Wales raised the alarm about dry weather in the eastern part of the country, just as farmers put in their 2008 wheat crop. Conditions are better in the west, however, and rains are expected in the east by the end of the week.
Source: Farm Futures Daily
Canadian Pacific Railway Takes A Serious Look at Prairie Grain Handling
CP Rail is taking steps to make sure grain and other high-demand commodities flow more smoothly across the continent. Fred Green, President and CEO of the company, said the railway "took away some learnings" from the past few quarters, which were beset by weather delays and other operational challenges. "We learned that our grain processors across Canada were built for the era prior to the recent grain company merger activity, and we were not adaptable enough when the forces of the severe winter impacted the supply chain. With record crop prices and strong global demand, our role is to enable the industry's success by having the right capacity in the right place at the right time - something that will serve both CP and our clients very well for years to come."
In The Cattle Markets: The Difference Risk Management Makes
The impact of higher corn prices on livestock feeding operations has generated significant interest lately, even from the nonagricultural community. News of deep losses and operations exiting the business are prevalent. Anecdotally, I’ve heard of losses this past winter ranging from $100/head to $400/head (yes, a loss of $400/head). Interestingly, I also know of cattle feeders that have been making a small profit on cattle too. The question I’m often asked then is why are some feeders making money and others are losing so much money. While there are a myriad of possible reasons, it appears that one likely difference among these operations is how they manage price risk.
Full story: http://www.cattlenetwork.com/Content.asp?ContentID=219094
Canadian Prairies Precipitation Map
The link below is the updated Prairie precipitation map.
http://www.agr.gc.ca/pfra/drought/maps/pr_gs_ac_d_e.pdf
