Agronomist Notes

We’re now full swing into seeding with most producers roughly 10 to 30 percent complete. We’re a little behind the normal timeline but it’s nothing to panic about yet; some guys wouldn’t mind a rain even if it stopped them for a day or two. The weather has been dry but we still have decent subsoil moisture, enough to last us until early to mid-June anyhow. The cool weather has helped to reduce evaporation losses but has messed with early weed growth and timely spraying.

I’ll keep this issue brief as most of you are out seeding. This week we’ll look at spray options when you’ve decided to seed first and spray later. We’ll look at how to assess winter kill in winter wheat stands to help you make the right decision to replant or keep the stand. Next, I’ll look at compaction this spring between two new seeding outfits comparing tracks vs. wheeled tractor units. I’ll give you a few tips on how to set up some last minute inter-row seeding trials and then Bruce Love has the carbon market update. Finally, we’ll finish with fundamental and grain market news with a few crop updates from producers around the globe. Have a great week.

Pictured above is Randy and Jason James seeding canola on May 1, 2009 with a STX 535 and Bourgault Paralink drill.

Agronomy

Options for spraying after seeding

Many producers who’ve decided to seed first and spray later will face a few weed control challenges before or after the crop emerges. Unfortunately, there are only a few options for controlling weeds like volunteer canola, flixweed and spring annuals in wheat or barley at the one-leaf stage. For those of you who’ve made the decision to seed first and spray later, here are your options.

1. Although not registered, applying Express SG at 6 grams/ac with a non-ionic surfactant like AgSurf or Agral 90 at 3.5L/1000L shows excellent crop safety at the one-leaf stage of wheat or barley. This is an effective strategy to control volunteer canola, small flixweed, two-leaf seedling dandelion and small Loonie-sized narrow-leaved hawk’s beard.
   1. Worst case scenario: You apply Express SG and it rains soon after application. The rain can wash the herbicide into the crops root zone which can stunt growth. The same thing can happen with Express Pro and Pre-Pass.
   2. Unregistered use of any product places liability in the applicators hands and not the herbicide company. 
2. Wait until the second-leaf stage of wheat and barley to apply a number of registered products like Benchmark, Infinity, Triton C, Buctril M, Everest and Buctril M, or Refine SG.
3. Avoid herbicides with MCPA and 2, 4-D before the three-leaf stage. See details below.
4. The only broadleaf herbicide registered for wheat and barley at the one-leaf stage is Infinity by Bayer CropScience. 
5. Some producers have tried Buctril M at the 200 ml/ac rate to control volunteer canola with success. I haven’t seen the results or effects from this.
6. Switch to RoundUp Ready canola and save the herbicide application for a later date. RR canola can be sprayed at the cotyledon stage.

The risk of using phenoxy’s like 2, 4-D or MCPA before the three-leaf stage is that they may cause kinked heads, which restricts water and nutrient supply, and/or may get stuck in the boot and emerge malformed. The picture on the right shows spring wheat with kinked heads due to an application of 2, 4-D before the third leaf stage in 2006. SL

Assessment of winter wheat stands

I’ve had a few calls to look at winter wheat stands that show signs of winter kill. In each case, if you pulled back the dead leaves, you could see green, healthy tillers springing from the crown of the plants. For those of you checking winter wheat stands right now, here is the quick and easy way to assess the viability and health of the plants.

The only way to properly assess the condition of individual plants is to examine the crown for the development of new white roots. The crown is located at the soil surface at the base of the plant. If the crown appears white and healthy, and new roots are developing, the plant is in good condition. Growth from the crown tissue is soil temperature dependent. Crown temperatures of 9 degrees Celsius accelerate growth and complete de-hardening, which may take several weeks.

Options for assessing crop life:

1. Wait until soil and crowns warm up and root growth commences – but this could take until mid May.
2. Extract several plants with soil attached and allow them to warm up inside. Keep soil moist and assess crowns for new root growth (about 5-7 days). Sample from average and worst-case areas of the field (knolls, headlands with low snow trapping stubble levels, low spots where spring flooding or winter icing may have occurred). SL

Comparing soil compaction across seeding outfits

I had a chance to look at a few seeding outfits last week to compare compaction levels in wheeled units vs. track units. I looked at the Case STX 535 with triples pulling a 65-foot Bourgault Paralink mid-row banding tool bar with a 550 bushel dual-wheeled air tank. I compared it to the JD 9630T with 36-inch tracks pulling an 1830 hoe drill with a 430 bushel tank that had duals on the back and front of the air cart. I found some interesting results. 

I’ll start by saying that this spring does not carry a high risk for compaction compared to previous years. However, a few rain storms and that could all change. I measured compaction levels both inside and out of the wheel tracks using a penetrometer, which is a tool that measures resistance in the soil in pounds per square inch. I measured the depth of compaction and the amount of compaction on both seeding units. Compaction is considered low at measurements less than 200 psi, medium with measurements between 200 and 300 psi and extreme with anything over 300 psi using a three-quarter inch tip.

The triple wheeled STX 535 and 65-foot Bourgault seeding unit showed a 15% increase in soil compaction inside the tractor and air cart wheel tracks down to 4 inches. The penetrometer measured 190 psi outside the wheel tracks and 220 psi inside. The highest compaction levels were found in the row where the front and back air cart tires followed the 4WD tires. We even found a few castor wheels that showed a 15% increase in soil compaction even though they didn’t have the multiplying effect of several tires. There must be a lot of weight on those castor wheels when they’re holding a 65-foot tool bar.

The tracked JD 9630T with 36-inch tracks pulling the 50-foot 1830 hoe drill with 430 bushel tank had a little less compaction than the STX and Bourgault combo but it was negligible. The soil tension measured 190 psi outside the tracks and 210 inside the tracks with the worst compaction showing a 15% increase in the row where the front and back air cart tires followed the tractor tracks. The depth of compaction was never more than three inches deep.   

In the end, there was no significant difference between these two tool bars. Really, it comes down to leaving a smaller footprint relative to the width of the machine. Are you increasing compaction on 10% of the ground you travel over or 30%? In this little experiment, the smaller footprint is the JD outfit, but I’d say we’re at a stale mate until we find some serous conditions where compaction becomes an issue. Until then, go hard, whatever your seeding weapon. SL

Get set for inter-row seeding

I’ve investigated inter-row seeding in Australia and think it has a good fit for us here. Inter-row seeding is the technique where you seed in between last year’s stubble using accurate GPS. It has many benefits such as improved seed placement, faster emergence, less dockage, more uniform crops, earlier maturity, higher protein and less root diseases to name a few.

Here is how you get started:

1. You must have row spacing and an opener width that gives you 30% seedbed utilization or less. You need room to track in between the rows and you need some room for drift.
2. You need an accurate GPS system. Trimble and John Deere have prescription based GPS systems that give you 4-inch accuracy (with an annual fee). You can go all the way with a RTK system but then you’re talking $30,000.
3. If you are setting up this year for next, then keep track of which corner you start the field in and the angle you’re seeding on. For example: If you start in the southeast corner and seed on an 80 degree angle, start in the southeast corner and maintain that angle next year when you seed.
4. Do a strip trial this year if your machine will allow you and watch for emergence and plant stand density differences. Stake a plot out and watch it this season. SL

Carbon Market News

The Road to Copenhagen

May 4, 2009- 2009 is a critical year in climate change policy and something we are going to start hearing a lot more about is the United Nations conference on climate change in Copenhagen this December. This conference will bring together the international plan to tackle climate change and form the replacement for the Kyoto Protocol that expires at the end of 2012. This deadline has set the schedule for many of the world’s leading industrialized countries to get their own house in order and set domestic Green House Gas (GHG) reduction policy first.

It should come as no surprise then to see the USA acting to tackle climate change at home in anticipation of what its commitments will be in an international agreement to limit GHG emissions. What also makes the USA’s progress on GHG policy appear so startling is the fact that under George W. Bush, the USA was the only industrialized country to oppose the Kyoto protocol. Therefore, as in Hillary Clinton’s words “the United States has to make up for lost time” to help combat the effects of climate change. This push for change has shown up clearly in the pace and determination of the Obama administration in developing climate change legislation that places hard caps on GHG emissions and utilizes a cap-and-trade system to get there.

While climate change goals tend to be long term, there appears to be a united front on the need for intermediate goals to be met. In particular, 2020 is being set as a key year for the first set of binding GHG emission reduction targets. The USA is calling for a return to 1990 levels domestically by 2020, while Europe is calling for even further cuts in its own emissions to 20% below 1990 levels and even 30% if other industrialized nations follow. Canada on the other hand has set its target for 2020 at 20% below 2006 levels which is considerably less than the cuts proposed by the USA. Canada’s emissions where about 26% over 1990 levels in 2007 and I am guessing it didn’t get any better in 2008.

The looming deadline of Copenhagen is further highlighted by the host of meetings set to hammer out a framework for a global GHG reduction agreement before the end of the year. This includes five formal meetings scheduled throughout this year by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) to negotiate what will likely be the outcome of the Copenhagen meeting. Added to this are all the meetings and discussions being held throughout the year by the major industrialized nations to work out their specific commitments to reducing GHG emissions. Like the meetings hosted by the USA in Washington, DC last week that had Australia, Brazil, Britain, Canada, China, the European Union, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Russia, South Africa and the United States represented.

Canada’s lack of leadership and inadequacy to non-existent GHG policy will come under even more intense criticism in the days ahead as the meetings intensify. The result will likely be more knee jerk reactions like the recent Federal Government announcement to eliminate GHG emissions from coal fired electricity generation. An announcement that may look good to some international viewers, but one that has little practicality without a complete plan to reduce GHG emissions in line with our trade partners. Therefore, we stick by our call that GHG reduction policy in Canada is really a function of what is happening outside of Canada. So given that GHG policy in the USA looks to be firming up and on track to become law possibly by year end, announcements by the Canadian Federal Government should start flowing in the not too distant future. 

Reference: Bruce Love, Preferred Carbon
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author only and are not intended to represent financial advice.

Market News

Fundamental Analysis

World Production in Million Metric Tonnes  

	Production			Ending Stocks			Ending Stocks
	2007-08	Apr-09	Change	2007-08	Apr-09	Change	5 Year Avg
Rapeseed	48.4	57.9	20%	3	6.3	103%	4.6
Barley	133.2	153.8	15%	18	30.1	66%	25.7
Wheat	610.6	682.0	12%	119	158.1	33%	138.6
Corn	792.3	786.4	-1%	128	143.3	12%	125.9
Soybeans	220.9	218.7	-1%	53	45.8	-14%	54

USDA Report updated April 9, 2009

Technical Indicators

I have set up these weekly updates to include market entry indicators to help you improve the timing of your grain marketing. Also, I added market trend indicators to give you a sense of the short and long term market trends.

Canola – November Futures
Insert chart
Wheat – December Futures
Insert chart
Barley – July Futures
Insert chart
Canadian Dollar – July futures
Insert chart

International Crop Weather News

Ukraine: “Rapeseed is beginning to flower and some rape was damaged by cold temperature; -11 degrees C two weeks ago. On winter barley, last leaf is arrived. On wheat, the second node is appearing. Spring barley was seeded in February and has now six leaves. Sunflowers are emerging. The three last weeks where particularly cold with temperatures below zero every night. And it didn’t rain since 40 days (it is not actually a problem) A lot of farmers around our farm are discovering the rapeseed was effected by frost and after inspection, decided to destroy it. Canola potential is above average at 2.7 - 3T/ha, wheat average and barley above average at 5.5 – 6.6 T/ha.” Jean Paul Kihm, France

Western Australia: “Temperatures are above average in high 20 degree C range and soil temperatures are high for May since we have had no rain. Our normal break of the season is May 15, though the earliest it looks like rain is May 20 to 25. Large farmers are starting dry seeding. There is some sub soil moisture but no surface moisture to germinate seeds which has and will continue to limit the yield potential of canola and oats. In the more marginal areas the yield potential of wheat and barley has started to fall and will start to fall about 30kg/day after May 15 in the more high rainfall areas to the west. Prices are maintaining themselves at about AU$300/t for wheat, AU$550 for canola and AU$230 for barley free in store for ‘09 delivery. There is normally about AU$50/t in handling, freight and storage costs.” Mark Graham, WA

South Australia: “On the Eyre Peninsula we have had 30-40 mm of rain although 25% had next to nothing. We are about a third the way through our seeding program with most about 10-20% into it with very good conditions. The temperature is normal with moisture above average. Things looking good, just like the last three years. Meaning, still a long way to go and anything can happen!” Mark Modra, SA

“After a very dry summer (8 mm in over 4 months), we had an excellent opening rain of 27 mm over the last weekend of April which put a lot of smiles on faces. Most dry sown canola was in the ground just prior to the rain, and paddock preparation on pasture paddocks is in full swing. I would expect that most will be looking to start spraying the weed emergence soon and begin sowing cereals in the next week in ideal conditions, especially if some follow up showers eventuate.” John Gladigau, SA

New South Wales (South): “Between 10 and 25% planted; most lupins & canola will be in the ground by the end of the week, lots of cereals that can be grazed have also gone in. Temperatures are normal. Most of southeastern Australia had a very welcome 20-50 mm a week ago. This is about two weeks earlier than average. There is no further rain forecast in the foreseeable future. We are still in a deceil 1 year (ie. lowest 10% of rainfall years). We have no subsoil moisture so we will be soon looking for the next rain but what we are planting is going in beautifully.” Murray Scholz, NSW

New South Wales (North): “Liverpool Plains and northwest New South Wales winter crop planting is starting on time and into full profiles of moisture. West of the Newel Highway (big area, low yield potential) it’s the best start in about 15 years. A long way to go yet but in these areas if you plant on a full profile some production is guaranteed. Southern NSW has had some rain but southwestern NSW is still very dry. On balance for the entire state, probably a better start than the last few years and big potential in the north but much more rain needed in the south. Very little barley going in; a lot of chickpeas and durum wheat (where crown rot isn’t an issue) are being seeded. Canola also down in the south due to uncertainty of season.” Richard Heath, NSW

Queensland: “Generally waiting for planting rain. Some early barley and oats planted on marginal moisture. Some areas deep sowing, some dry sowing of all winter crops (chick peas, wheat, barley). Temperatures at normal to slightly above. No rain since Easter. The ideal time for rain is now; no sign of it in the next seven days.” Ronald Thompson, QLD

England: “Canola mid flower, winter wheat GS 32-37, spring wheat GS 32 and barley GS 37-39. Temperature average is 15-20 degrees Celsius. Precipitation low; 12 mm last week. Dry forecast. Canola yield potential nationally 70% of last year. 25% of crops look good. 25% terrible/ pulled up. 50% moderate. Wheat yield potential 70 % of last year. Many crops very shallow rooted. Second wheat’s beginning to show take-all. We need a cool wet May now for this potential to be retained. A hot dry month will not be good for many crops.” Nick Ward, England

Ontario: “Normally by May 1st we have all of our corn planted and are started on planting our soybeans.  No such luck this year, it has been far too wet. We did manage to get the nitrogen on the winter wheat between rains and plant 58 acres of corn on a sandy field that is systematically drained. Most of the farmers in our area haven't worked or planted any ground and with the present weather outlook we don't expect to be back at it for at least a week or ten days. When the weather does break the wheels will be turning around the clock and it will all get planted in a very tight time frame and likely will be planted a little on the wet side.” Jack Rigby, Ontario

United States: In the West, another round of late-season storminess is beginning to overspread northern California and the Pacific Northwest. In northern and central California, unusual May precipitation has slowed fieldwork but aided pastures and further improved water-supply prospects. On the Plains, extremely wet conditions are increasing concerns about disease in winter wheat across central and southern portions of the region. During the last week, many locations from central and eastern Kansas southward into northeastern Texas have received in excess of 4 inches of rain. In the Corn Belt, mild, dry weather temporarily prevails in the upper Mississippi Valley, but cool, cloudy conditions persist in most other portions of the region. Fieldwork is proceeding at a sluggish pace, if at all, but upper Midwestern warmth is promoting some emergence of recently planted corn.

Europe: Persistent dryness in Poland and northern Germany reduces soil moisture for wheat and rapeseed. Showers favor jointing to heading winter grains over southern and western Europe.

Former Soviet Union: Mostly dry weather favors planting activities in Ukraine, Belarus, and Russia, although unseasonably cold weather slows spring-planted crop emergence and winter grain development. Freezes extend as far south as southern Ukraine and the Southern District in Russia, threatening jointing winter grains and newly emerged spring-planted crops.

Southeast Asia: Torrential monsoon showers slow seasonal fieldwork in the Philippines as farmers prepare for planting summer rice and corn.

East Asia: Spring rainfall in China continues to benefit reproductive winter wheat, filling rapeseed, and emerging summer crops.

South Asia: Dry, hot weather in northern India accelerates winter wheat harvesting. Showers in southern India slow rabi (winter) groundnut and rice harvesting.

Middle East: Widespread showers over Turkey and northern Iran favor wheat and barley. Sunny weather from the eastern Mediterranean Coast into central and eastern Iran promotes wheat development.

North Africa: Heavy rain in Tunisia and Algeria maintains abundant soil moisture for heading wheat and barley. Dry, sunny weather in Morocco accelerates winter grain maturation.

Australia: Mostly dry weather returns to southern Queensland and northern New South Wales, enabling cotton and sorghum harvesting to regain speed.

South America: Continuing dryness hastens dry down and harvesting of summer grains and oilseeds throughout central Argentina while keeping most areas too dry for early winter grain planting. Unseasonable warmth and dryness keep immature corn unfavorably dry in southern Brazil but favor soybean harvesting. Dry weather aids the final stages of soybean harvesting in central Brazil.

South Africa: Rain boosts topsoil moisture for winter wheat germination in Western Cape, but more is needed in winter cropping areas of the corn belt.

Canada: Aside from flooded areas in Manitoba, the majority of the prairies have begun seeding. Saskatchewan is off to a good start to seeding but Alberta and Manitoba lag behind. Ontario corn growers are behind schedule with planting due to moisture.