Agronomist Notes

Well, 2.8 inches of rain fell last week, putting a lengthy pause in seeding activities. The snow that fell two weeks ago delivered 1.8 inches of moisture bringing us to 4.6 inches total for this spring. We now have four feet of moisture in the soil so for most producers in loam to clay loam soils that works out to 7 inches of stored moisture and clay soils are holding roughly 8 inches. Today’s yield potential, without another drop of rain, barring any extreme weather events, could produce +/- 49bu/ac barley, 35bu/ac wheat and 21bu/ac canola.

At this point, the majority of my clients have completed 10% of their seeding with a mix of barley, wheat and canola. We have been forced to choose fields that are dry rather than choosing which crop to sow first. I know some producers are sowing wheat before their peas, which is unusual but some fields remain too wet to move equipment on.

In this issue, I have provided information to help you decide which crops to seed in delayed spring conditions. Also, I have included how plants take up nutrients and the importance of phosphorous fertility. Phosphorus availability becomes limited under cool and moist conditions, which we are currently experiencing.

Agronomy

So what crop do I seed first?

This information is used to help you decide which crops offer the most profitable cropping sequence, especially in a late spring. This year it looks like some producers may throw cropping sequence out the window and seed whatever field is dry, but if you are sitting on the fence wondering which crop to seed, I hope this information helps.

The table below shows the average seeding dates before yields start to decline in each soil zone.

Soil Zone	Canola	Wheat	Barley	Peas
Black	7-May	7-May	21-May	7-May
Thin Black	7-May	14-May	21-May	7-May
Dark Brown	7-May	14-May	14-May	30-Apr
Brown	30-Apr	7-May	7-May	30-Apr

Source: http://www1.agric.gov.ab.ca/$department/deptdocs.nsf/all/crop5757?opendocument

Early season P deficiency limits yield potential.

Although wheat takes up only small amounts early in the season, phosphorus plays a major role in early plant development and determination of attainable yield potential. During the first few weeks, P supply increases the proliferation of roots as well as the initiation of tillers. An insufficient supply early in the season creates irrecoverable yield losses. Phosphorus shortages later in the season have less impact than those encountered earlier.

What happens to fertilizer P after I apply it?

Fertilizer P is highly soluble, and goes into solution shortly after it is applied, assuming moist conditions. In the year of application, about 10 to 30% of the freshly applied P is used. The rest of the applied P has two possible fates: 1) become part of the labile fraction, which is plant-available (70 to 90% of the P applied), or 2) become part of the non-labile fraction, which is not plant-available (10 to 30%). The P that goes into the non-labile fraction can be considered an economic loss. The P that goes into the labile fraction is considered an investment with possible future returns from yield responses by subsequent crops.

Bottom Line: For those of you on high pH soils where you tend to have lower phosphate availability or below 20lbs of P/acre, seed placing your 11-52-0-0 would be extremely beneficial during cool and moist spring conditions. In my experience, the most responsive crop to seed placed phosphorus has been barley, then wheat, canola, followed by peas.

Source: Potash and Phosphate Institute

How do nutrients move in the soil?

1. Diffusion. This is a process in which nutrients move from an area of higher concentration to an area of lower concentration. As the roots absorb a nutrient and remove it from soil solution, the concentration of that nutrient will become lower. More molecules of the nutrient will then move or diffuse toward the root surface. Much of the phosphorus and potassium, which are attached to soil clays and organic matter, move toward the root by diffusion. As the high concentration of nutrients moves toward the root mass it grabs lesser concentrations of other nutrients, usually micronutrients, and carries them with the main stream toward the root hairs.

2. Mass flow. Mass flow accounts for about 80% of the contact between roots and nutrients. Roots exert a tension on the soil water to draw it out of the soil pores. With mass flow, the nutrients are dissolved in the soil water and move with the water as it is drawn to the roots. Most of the plants nitrogen and sulphur are absorbed in this manner.

3. Root Interception is the process by which most plants grow. As root growth increases, plant roots grow past nutrient cations that have become adsorbed (not absorbed) onto soil colloid cation exchange sites. With the release of humic acid exudates, the plant roots can remove the cations from the sites and transfer them through the soil water solution into the plant. Most of the calcium, magnesium and molybdenum are taken up this way.

Market News

Wheat Market Update

Traders are scratching their heads as daily reports out of the fields unveil horror stories about dead wheat yet the last two weekly updates suggests we are recovering. The bottom line is this: There was significant losses of yield in KS and parts of OK and NE that will show up with lower crop production numbers on future production reports. Though spring wheat futures are still being planted to be delivered on the MN Exchange, with good weather through June and July it could end up being our best quantity and quality crop most sought after by US millers and foreign importers leaving us after an early planting low to seek a harvest demand rally as the Easter freeze left little high quality hard red and soft red winter wheat delivered in KC and CBT.

Source: http://futures.fxstreet.com/Futures/content/100130/content.asp?menu=commodities

Droughts, Planting Cuts May Keep Global Wheat Stocks Low

Sagging global wheat stocks appear on track to remain low as unfavorable weather conditions and plans for reduced plantings in key growing areas are dashing hopes that 2007 will be a rebuilding year, analysts said.

The wheat industry had hoped to replenish its stocks this year after severe droughts slashed production last year in the US and Australia, the world's biggest wheat exporters. Dryness in the US also helped drag down ending stocks last year. The US Department of Agriculture this month estimated carryover at 422 million bushels, the lowest level since 1995 96 and down from 571 million in 2005-06.This year, Australia is again suffering from a serious lack of rain, along with Europe, the Ukraine and Russia. The US winter wheat crop, meanwhile, was severely damaged in some areas by a hard freeze in early April, according to growers and agronomists.

Article: http://www.agriculture.com/ag/futuresource/FutureSourceStoryIndex.jhtml?storyId=90100405

World Wheat Weather

Weather forecasters expect improved planting prospects for spring wheat in the Northern Plains. Showers in France today aided in easing dryness concerns and caused wheat to slip slightly. However E.U. wheat still remains near last week’s contract highs while many areas in Europe stay warm and dry. Germany’s wheat still remains a major concern in Europe as weather forecasts do not anticipate significant rain through the weekend. However, improved chances or rain are forecast for next week.

The forecast shows rains for the Southern Plains wheat areas and England across to Poland in the next 5 days, which will be beneficial to crops. However dryness is still a concern for major grain areas in Ukraine and Australia.

Source: FIMAT

US Winter Wheat Estimates

Figures released today from the Wheat Quality Council’s annual hard winter wheat tour showed Kansas hard red winter wheat crop is expected to have an average yield of 41bu/ac. The average of tour participant’s estimates puts the total crop for Kansas HRW at 392.7 million bushels, which is 35% higher than last year’s production when the average yield was 32 bu/ac according to the USDA. The trade had expected a Kansas crop near 400 million bushels.

Source: FIMAT

No Weather Disasters Seen For W Kansas Wheat

It doesn’t appear that harsh weather conditions will run western Kansas’ hard red winter wheat crop off its path toward a strong yield this year, a noted agricultural meteorologist said. “This is going to be a superb crop in the west, barring a meteorological disaster that no one I know is forecasting,” said Peter Leavitt, a meteorologist with more than 50 years of experience. “I’m certainly not forecasting it.”

Source: CBOT News

Confirmation: Wheat Markets - Recent Frost in Kansas

Taken from April 17^th Beyond Agronomy News. “So what does this mean? It means we should look at pricing our hard red spring wheat into this potential rally if no forward pricing has been done yet.”

If you look at the chart, wheat reached a second high on April 26^th during the Easter frost rally. The fixed price contract through the CWB was $226.15/tonne. This was a market high in the Minneapolis futures and another chance to price some wheat. Then again, if we continue on with wet weather and a late spring, I don’t know how much wheat I would price at this point.

Keep your eye on the CWB fixed price contracts daily after 2:00pm. http://www.cwb.ca/db/contracts/ppo/ppo_prices.nsf/fixed_price/2007_index.html