Agronomist Notes
I’ve managed to soil sample 90% of my fields now and continue to see nitrogen levels in the 15 to 30 lb range. Last week, soil moisture was 1 to 1½ feet deep, which works out to roughly 1 or 2 inches of stored soil moisture, depending on soil texture. In terms of yield, it gives us a 4-bushel per acre head start to canola, a 6-bushel start to wheat and an 8-bushel start to barley in 2009.
I hope that most producers plan to soil sample at least a cross section of fields this fall to gain a better understanding of their fertility needs. Understanding nutrient levels could easily mean the difference between $10 and $20 an acre in fertilizer costs, never mind the peace of mind that comes with knowing what nutrients you can or can’t cut back on.
I’ve checked on a few fields of winter wheat that were seeded the beginning of October and it looks like they only managed to grow one leaf so winter kill may be an issue next spring. On these later seeded fields we increased the seeding rate by about 20% to help offset the potential loss from winter kill. Though late seeding winter wheat is not a recommended practice, it was worth the risk on this really sandy land.
In this week’s newsletter I’ll be focusing on phosphorus for improving yields in sandy soils, understanding how much we can cut back in 2009 and building P levels in our soils now for the future. We’ll also look at another innovative land rental idea and an excellent comment from last week’s article on land rent. Finally, we’ll look at Chinese fertilizer export tariffs and international crop weather news.
My hope is that Beyond Agronomy News could become a living newsletter where ideas are shared and we all benefit in the end. Please feel free to email comments my way. I do enjoy them. SL
Agronomy
Residue management, a tale from 2008
I wanted to show you some before and after crop residue pictures from this past season. This spring I was touting how well a Flexi-Coil 5000 air drill with 3.5 inch Stealth openers on 10-inch spacing seeded canola through some really gnarly stubble on May 12th, as seen in the photo on the left. Looking back on my records, the emergence was an impressive 9 plants/ft2 with an average seeding depth of 1 inch. This field of InVigor 5440 did 55 bushels an acre in spite of the thick residue it had to grow through. The photo on the right shows the stubble after harvest and it amazes me to see how quickly heavy residue can be broken down in the span of five months. I’m encouraged to think that above average yields can be achieved in messy residue situations, given the right tool for the job. SL
Improving the yield potential of sandy soils
One of the questions I find myself asking is how to improve the production potential of sandy soils. Do we just leave well enough alone and focus on more productive areas or can we actually improve sandy soils?
I’ve experimented with amendments like compost and straw but I’ve yet to experiment with deep banding phosphorus. Aside from moisture, phosphorus can be one of the greatest limiting factors in the productivity of sandy soils, even when the soil test levels are optimum. Phosphorus becomes a limiting factor because the soil in the top six inches dries out quickly causing roots to die off and phosphorus uptake to drop off. The practice and theory is to deep band phosphorus down 12 inches so roots have access to moisture and phosphorus during the driest part of the season.
Research by the GRDC in Australia found a 30% increase in phosphorus uptake by banding 90 lbs of P, 12 inches deep on sandy soil. The net yield benefit of this particular trial was an increase of 6.5 bushels per acre over the check. With phosphorus prices hovering around $1.07 a pound, the cost of applying 90 lbs of P205 would be roughly $115 an acre including application costs. At $6.50 a bushel, you would need an 18 bu/ac increase to break even or a 21 bu/ac increase to gain a 20% return on your investment. Amortized over a two year period, I would bet that you could come close to gaining a 15 or 20% return on your deep banding investment. SL
Building soil phosphorus levels
Aside from nitrogen, the nutrient I see most often deficient is phosphorus. If the world’s population is projected to increase to 9 billion by 2050 and productive land is diminishing by 1% year over year, something tells me phosphorus is going to be very expensive in the not so distant future.
If we plan to farm another 20 years then why not have the foresight to invest now and gain an advantage in the future. If you look at the chart above, you can see it takes 30 lbs of P205 per acre to increase the soil P level by 1 lb per acre if your soil test level is 5 lbs P per acre. If your soil test levels move up to 60 lbs P per acres you would only need 5.4 lbs of P205 to increase your soil P level by 1 lb per acre.
Unfortunately, the values you see in the chart are based on Kentucky soils and we don’t have the research in Alberta to show what kind of approximate increases we could receive with phosphorus fertilizer. What the chart does illustrates is a trend towards less P fertilizer required to build up soil test P levels as your soil phosphorus levels increase.
Let’s run the math using today’s phosphorus price with an average soil test level of 20 lbs per acre and the intent to raise soil P levels to 60 lbs per acre using the values in the above table.
P205 = $1.07 lb
Soil P = 60 lbs desired – 20 lbs P in the soil
40 lbs of P per acre × 11.6 lbs P205 = 464 lbs of P205 per acre
464 lbs of P205 × $1.07 lb + $20 an acre to apply = $516.48 acre
In this example it would cost $516.48 per acre to bring soil test levels up by 40 lbs of P per acre. Sound ridiculous? Well it is. Nobody could afford to do this and it would be uneconomical. However, I see two strategies that hold some promise:
- Use variable rate technology and NDVI imagery to delineate productivity zones and fertilize based on soil test results. It is amazing how phosphorus levels can vary across a landscape. There is no sense building phosphorus in areas that don’t need it.
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Build soil phosphorus levels through manure applications even if you don’t live next door to a feedlot. Most producers are excellent negotiators and I’m sure they could find a way to source manure, even if the nearest feedlot or chicken barn was ten miles away. The manure with the most phosphorus concentration per tonne is chicken (12.3%) followed by turkey (5.9%), cattle (2.5%) and hogs (1.5%).
I know I sound crazy for mentioning some of these strategies right now, but in ten years when we’re paying $4,000 a tonne for phosphate my strategies may not sound so off base. SL
Source: http://www.spectrumanalytic.com/support/library/ff/Soil_test_P_and_K_buildup_and_drawdown.htm
Avoid early season phosphorus deficiencies
For those of you looking to cut back phosphorus next spring, the picture below is a perfect example of the risks associated with improper placement of starter phosphorus. The wheat in this picture received a fall banded application of 70-30-10-10. In the spring, the left side had 10 lbs of starter phosphorus placed with the seed and the right side did not. Just look at the difference a cool spring can make!
I can’t stress the importance of starter phosphorus enough in our soils to avoid severe yield penalties next year. The accumulation of residue on the surface from the last few years coupled with adequate soil moisture tends to keep our soils very cool in the spring. Add early seeding in April to the equation and you could set yourself up for a disappointing season.
If you do plan to cut back phosphorus to 10 or 15 lbs an acre, be sure that phosphorus is as close to the seed as possible. I’ve found that barley is the most sensitive to phosphorus deficiencies, then wheat, flowed by canola, and lastly peas. If your soil test P levels are in the 15 to 20 lbs an acre range, you could plan a strategy like 20 lbs P per acre on your barley, 15 lbs P per acre on your wheat and 10 lbs P per acre on your canola. Setting a 10 lb per acre rate across the farm without soil testing can be a risky proposition. I know that out of the 160 fields I manage, 20% of them would be too risky to go below 15 lbs of P per acre if we were growing barley. If the spring turns warm and moist, P uptake will improve and you might be able to get away with a 10 lb per acre P rate if you’ve historically fertilized with 20 lbs P per acre or more. SL
Photo source: Potash and Phosphate Institute
More innovative land rental agreements
After talking to a few producers, I’ve heard some say they offer the land owner 20% of the gross revenue in lieu of straight cash rent. If we fall into an average year, depending on where you farm, 20% of gross revenue would work out to roughly $40.00 to $50.00 an acre. If we see another rise in commodity prices and yields, land owners will be able to capture the incremental revenue. For example, in a year with $500 gross revenues like this year, a land owner would stand to earn $100.00 an acre in rent. I can foresee the land owner asking why you didn’t sell at $12.00 a bushel instead of $10.00. You could mitigate that by asking if the land owner would like to participate in pricing his 20% stake. SL
Reader Comments
Re: Innovative land rental agreements
“Just a few comments on the 5-year up-front land rental payment. I came up with a different comparative number presuming the original payment of $250,000 would come due at the same time as the first year’s rent. The cost of borrowing would only be on $200,000 the first year and not $250,000 because you would have paid the $50,000 rent in the spring of the first year regardless. What you’re really borrowing is the additional $200,000 for the next four years. The number I came up with was $55.25 an acre including interest.
“My calculations were as follows:
$200,000 at 5.25% = $10,500
$150,000 at 5.25% = $7,875
$100,000 at 5.25% = $5,250
$50,000 at 5.25% = $2,625
Total interest = $26,250
Interest & Principal $276,250 ÷ 5 years = $55,250 ÷ 1000 acres = $55.25 acre.” Jack Rigby, Blenhiem, ON
Thank you, Jack. I suppose the payment for the first year’s rent would be business as usual, therefore no opportunity cost lost and no need to borrow the extra $50,000. You would only borrow the extra $200,000 like you suggest. Great point! Steve
Markets
China Reduces Fertilizer Export Tariffs
China has reduced its export tariffs for nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers. During peak fertilizer application season periods, a tariff of 110% will be applied on key fertilizer products (previously 175% for urea and 120% for phosphate fertilizers). During off-season periods, the tariff will be fixed at 10% if prices for export are maintained at or below pre-established benchmark price levels.
The change to China's export tariff creates additional short-term uncertainty for the nitrogen and phosphate fertilizer markets. The current domestic price for diammonium phosphate (DAP) fertilizer in China is about $440/tonne (i.e. $484/tonne with a 10% export tariff). In comparison, U.S. DAP prices are currently at about $550/tonne. There is a limited two-month window for Chinese phosphate exports between now and next spring (i.e. December 2008 and January 2009). During this short timeframe, Chinese exports could put near-term downward pressure on phosphate prices and lead to additional production cutbacks by major suppliers (i.e., Mosaic and Morocco's OCP) seeking to balance the overall market. China is a significant net importer of potash and it has not exported its domestic potash production in the past.
Domestic Chinese fertilizer distribution companies are reportedly starting to purchase NPK fertilizer blends from producers as increased urea and phosphate exports will put upward pressure on domestic fertilizer prices. Increased demand for NPK would reduce potash stocks at a faster rate, which would be positive for global potash producers. In addition, China also raised the minimum guarantee price to the farmer for the next crop season and is allowing the export of certain specified crops, which could be positive for overall potash fertilizer demand.
Source: RBC Market News
International Crop Weather News
United States: In the Northwest, warmth favours winter wheat emergence and development. On the Plains, dry weather favours late-season fieldwork activities, including cotton and sorghum harvesting from Kansas southward into Texas. In the Corn Belt, widespread snow showers are affecting the middle Ohio Valley and areas downwind of the Great Lakes. Elsewhere in the Midwest, cold, dry weather is promoting late-season fieldwork, including the western Corn Belt’s much-delayed corn harvest. In the South, frost advisories were in effect earlier this morning as far south as Georgia, and readings dipped below 40 degrees F throughout northern Florida. Autumn fieldwork, including winter wheat planting and cotton and soybean harvesting, is resuming across the Southeast in the wake of last week’s heavy rainfall.
Europe: Locally heavy rain in England, France, and Italy provides additional topsoil moisture for emerging winter wheat and rapeseed but slows late summer crop harvesting. Dry, unseasonably warm weather in the Balkans maintains a rapid pace of fieldwork.
Former Soviet Union: The third consecutive week of dry weather in Ukraine and southern Russia helps late-season summer crop harvesting. Colder weather slows or halts winter grain growth.
East Asia: Dry weather aids winter wheat planting on the North China Plain. Flooding likely necessitates replanting of winter rapeseed in Hunan province.
Southeast Asia: Drier weather in Thailand aids rice and corn harvesting, while heavy showers continue to cause fieldwork delays in Vietnam. Showers in Indonesia favor developing rice but cause some planting delays. Tropical Cyclone Maysak causes localized flooding in the Philippines and slows rice and corn harvesting.
South Asia: Dry weather favors summer crop harvesting and winter wheat planting and emergence.
Middle East: Rain in Iran provides moisture for winter wheat and barley, while sunny skies in Turkey promote winter crop development.
Northwest Africa: Drier weather in Morocco allows saturated fields to dry and winter grain planting to resume.
Australia: In eastern Australia, rain boosts soil moisture and irrigation supplies for recently sown summer crops. Rain in southeastern Australia slows the maturation and harvesting of drought-stressed winter grains. Drier weather in Western Australia benefits maturing winter wheat and barley.
South America: Rain boosts topsoil moisture for germination of soybeans and other summer row crops in central Brazil. Unseasonable warmth and dryness reduce moisture for emerging summer grains and oilseeds in key production areas of Argentina.
South Africa: Showers benefit corn and other emerging summer crops in major commercial farming areas.
Mexico: Warmth and dryness promote maturation and harvesting of corn and other summer crops
