Agronomist Notes

I’ve spent some time putting fertility and crop plans together for clients this week. I don’t know what nitrogen levels are like yet but I’m confident they will be low given the low proteins and high yields in most areas. With wheat yields in the 60’s and 70’s and barley yields in the 90 and 100’s, the average nitrogen removal rate will be from 90 to 110 lbs ac range. The same goes for canola yielding high 40’s and 50’s.

There has been some talk of fertilizer prices going up but retailers are having a hard time getting product for some reason. Urea prices today are roughly $450 a tonne and $700 tonne for phosphate. I’ve heard NH3 quotes around $700 to $720 delivered. Be sure to get a head start on sourcing seed for next year. There won’t be a lot of high quality seed available this winter.

This week we’ll look at the effects of planting seed with poor germination and vigour. Next, we’ll run the numbers by comparing profitability on CPS verses HRS wheat. Next, we’ll run the numbers to see if fall banding nitrogen makes sense this year if you’re still sitting on the fence. Last, there’s a little ditty on why purchasing a fertilizer bin could give you a quick ROI. We’ll finish with fundamental and technical grain market news.

The importance of high germ, vigorous seed

After a year like 2010, with late crops and frost damaged kernels, the risk of planting poor quality seed in 2011 is high. As we know, starting with high germination, high vigour seed is paramount to producing high yields. That being said, you always need a reminder to know why we test our seed each year. In the spring of 2010, I had a client call me and tell me he had 800 bushels of treated AC Metcalf malt barley that tested 60% germination and 58% vigour!  What else do you do with treated seed right? Well, you plant it! My advice was to plant it as heavy as possible to get rid of it faster so we would affect fewer acres.

I calculated his seeding rate based on germination, thousand kernel weight, mortality and a plant stand density of 22 plants per ft2. The total came to, get this, 200 lbs an acre. Try telling that to a client with a straight face! We ended up compromising on a seeding rate of 180 lbs an acre. During the growing season, the plant stand density with the poor seed was very close to what was achieved with AC Metcalfe containing 99% germ and 92% vigour.  

This fall, I received a phone call from my client telling me of an odd phenomenon in a field of malt barley. The yield monitor would hold steady until a certain point in the field and then it would drop 10 bushels an acre. It was like someone drew a line across the field. He told me the line matched up exactly where the seed with poor germination was planted adjacent to the good quality seed.

With that, be sure to have you seed tested for germination and vigour this fall and make sure you start with high quality seed next spring. If you don’t, you’ll be leaving bushels behind before you even start. SL 

Should you be growing CPS instead of HRS?

There has been a large shift away from CPS wheat in the last five years and a move to HRS wheat. With yield improvements in red spring, many found HRS to be more profitable than growing CPS. However, if you’re producing No. 2 HRS more often with proteins below 12%, could CPS be more profitable? Let’s run the numbers and take a second look at CPS for 2011.

First, I’m going to suggest we select the CPS variety 5700PR because I feel it has the best all-round yield and agronomic package and compare it to AC Harvest, a high yielding HRS variety with a strong agronomic package as well. On average I’d say that CPS tends to have a 10% yield advantage.   

CPS has very similar agronomy requirements to HRS. For instance, if you’re targeting 65 bu/ac spring wheat, you’re probably targeting 80 bu/ac CPS. HRS requires 2.5 lbs N per bushel and CPS requires 2 lbs N per bushel for total N uptake. With our suggested yields, both would require 160 lbs of total nitrogen to produce a 65 bu/ac HRS crop and an 80 bu/ac CPS crop. Seeding rates, dates, herbicides and harvesting are very similar as well.

CPS: 77 bu/ac
HRS: 70 bu/ac
5-year Avg. CWB PRO CPS: $182.80 or $4.97 bu
5-year Avg. CWB PRO HRS #2 11.5% protein: $203.80 or $5.54 bu

CPS Revenue = $382.69
HRS Revenue = $387.80

In this example, the HRS has a higher return and the potential for even higher returns if it grades well. However, if on average you find yourself with a No. 2 low protein HRS, then you might like the steady eddy return of growing a CPS. I like the advantages of CPS like shorter straw, for example, 5700PR is 3 inches shorter than AC Harvest which means 10% less material to put through the combine. CPS has the advantage of producing high yields yet not be subject to the stringent grading system of HRS. Last but not least, the biggest advantage with CPS is cash flow and not having to deal with contract calls through the CWB and waiting 12 months for your money.

In the end, if you fall into the high yield, low protein and lower grade HRS scenario, perhaps you should give CPS another look for 2010. It will give you another option for off-combine cash flow, increased harvest efficiency and less worry about grade and storage. Sounds like a fit to me. SL

Is fall banding cost effective?

With rising commodity prices, producers with little fertilizer storage are looking at fall banding to capture less expensive nitrogen prices. With current urea prices hovering around $450/T and anhydrous around $700/T, does fall banding urea or anhydrous makes sense this fall? In some cases, producers can a) capture lower cost nitrogen without having to store it, b) increase seeding efficiency next spring and c) increase soil temperatures next spring given the high levels of residue which keep the ground cool. To begin this exercise, we’ll work through the breakeven cost for fuel and labour by applying N this fall. Then we’ll compare the fall application costs versus the potential savings from purchasing nitrogen today versus the spring.

Steve’s quick math

We will use a 58-ft air drill with a 435 bu tank with 1" openers on 12" spacing to band 195 lbs of urea (90 lbs N) per acre at 5 mph.

Labour: $20/hr
Fuel use: $68.70/hr (15 gal/hr at $3.17/Gal or 68 L/hr at $0.84/L)
425 hp 4WD + 58 ft drill: $247.13 per hour or $8.78/ac
Acres/hr: 28 ac/hr (5 mph × 5,280 ft/ml × 58 ft ÷ 43,560 ft2/ac) × 80% efficiency
Acres/fill: 120 acres (435 bu × 60 lb/bu) ÷ 195 lbs × 90%)
Addition cost: $8.78 ac app ÷ 90 lbs N = $0.11 lb/N

Therefore, in this scenario, the breakeven fuel, labour and equipment cost to band nitrogen this fall is $247.13 per hour or $8.78 per acre. To recoup the cost of fall banding 90 lbs of nitrogen, prices must increase by $0.11 lb or $111 tonne. In the case of anhydrous, NH3 prices would have to increase by $199 tonne to cover the cost of applying NH3 this fall.

In the end, if the price of urea increases from $450 now to $550 tonne in the spring and NH3 increases from $700 to $900 tonne by spring, you’ll still be just breaking even by banding nitrogen this fall. If you need to increase seeding efficiency next year, then banding makes sense. If you’re trying to save money the numbers may not be in your favor. SL

Purchasing fertilizer bins makes sense

In the last two months, urea prices have gone from $360 tonne to $450 tonne. With the exception of 2009, fertilizer prices tend to increase over winter by $50 to $100 tonne on average. That’s why most producers purchase and store fertilizer before Christmas, aside from tax reasons. That being said, it’s surprising how many producers can only store 70% of their annual fertilizer requirements. It looks like 2010 could be a fine time to purchase another bin.   

Today, you can purchase a 90 tonne hopper bottom fertilizer bin for roughly $18,000 or $200 a tonne. With an average savings of $50 to $100 a tonne for urea by purchasing in the fall versus spring, a fertilizer bin can be paid for within two to three years. If you’re lucky, and commodity prices continue to rise, it would be possible to pay for that bin within six months.

Farm.tv Interview: Harvest recap of our CTF system

Farm.tv recently caught up with me to discuss the highlights of our first season under controlled traffic. Watch farm.tv http://www.farm.tv/videos/originals/controlled-traffic-farming-3/