Hello,

This week Red Deer hosts Agri-Trade and I’ll be there Wednesday through Friday so I hope to see you there. I’ll be busy networking and marketing my newsletter. This week I’ve continued our high yield journey with the topic of variety selection. I’ve also included some of the problems and solutions I’ve encountered during my variable rate endeavour. As always, you’ll find some food for thought in market news. Have a great week!

Agronomist Notes

I’ve seen more fall field work done this year than in previous years. Unfortunately, cultivating or disking the soil now in the hope of drying things out may be futile. After soil sampling stubble fields from Calgary to Drumheller I can tell you there’s only 1.25 feet of moisture left in the ground. Bottom line, there’s nothing left to dry out but the sloughs and even they’re drying up.  Working the soil now may leave you with very little moisture reserve for next spring. The problem will only be exacerbated if we have a warm and dry winter. Once you disturb the ground in the spring with seeding, you’ll be left with very little moisture for germination and early growth. I’ve been encouraging growers to rethink working their stubble even if their neighbours think it’s a good idea.

Agronomy

Achieving Maximum Yield – Variety Selection

One of the most difficult processes in variety selection is choosing a variety that compliments your climate, soil type and management style.  For example, how many people have grown a hybrid canola variety that did not perform at all when the data suggested it was higher yielding than the rest? Have you ever chose a new wheat variety that grew five feet tall and keeled over in early July? With respect to selecting seed varieties there is no cookie cutter approach to selecting seed for high performance growers.

Here are the things I keep in mind when selecting the best variety for myself and my clients:

1. Match variety selection to the grower’s fertility practices.
2. Evaluate optimal plant stand densities for each field and soil type on the farm (loam vs. sandy loam).
3. Understand the germination, vigour and emergence conditions (soil conditions, seeder and opener type).
4. Adjust seeding rates in spring to match soil conditions (increase seeding rate under cool & wet soil conditions to compensate for higher seed mortality).
5. Adjust seeding depth to match soil conditions and soil type.
6. Add defensive traits to protect the genetic potential, paying particular attention to disease resistance.
7. Use seed treatments to aid in stand establishment and seedling disease prevention. 

Choosing the Right Hybrid Canola

When comparing varieties for differences in yield performance, multi-year and multi-comparison data is the best predictor of relative performance. The growing seasons in 2005, 2006 and 2007 were very different from each other which makes looking at data from all three years a good idea. Keep your Alberta Seed Guide each year so you have a reference to check how each variety performed over the last number of years. I also like to compare performance data outside my growing area such as the irrigation zone and the drier areas of zone 1 in southern Alberta. See Alberta Zone Map http://www1.agric.gov.ab.ca/$Department/deptdocs.nsf/All/agdex4069#Performance

See Prairie Canola Variety Trials data http://www1.agric.gov.ab.ca/$department/deptdocs.nsf/all/crop9526

Another idea is to contact a local independent agronomist to find out how certain varieties performed over many farms under differing climate, soil types and management styles. I have the opportunity to see varieties perform across a broad spectrum of climate and farming practices which gives me an edge on the Alberta Seed Guide. The final alternative for choosing the right variety for your area is to partner with a seed company and agree to host a variety trial on your farm. It’s easier to do than you think and the information you gather is priceless. 

Using Bin-Run Seed

There are a number of research papers out there that state a fact we already know but have overlooked when cleaning our seed. Research shows that larger seeds produce higher yields than smaller seeds. So why do we clean our wheat and barley with a standard size? In my opinion, it would be worth paying $0.10 a bushel more in seed cleaning costs to cull harder and ask the seed cleaner to size wheat and barley accordingly to produce a larger seed lot.

Final Note

Seed selection comes down to more than just looking at yield data from a seed guide. It takes an understanding of each field’s soil type, fertility program, seeding tool, pests and management style to select the right variety.

What Crop do you Seed First?

We’ve been seeding our wheat and canola before feed barley. It makes sense when you compare the maturity between barley, wheat and canola. However, over these last few years I’ve noticed a marked increase in the number of broken heads laying on the ground when I’m out soil sampling. I realize that according to research and experience, we should be seeding our entire land base “early”, so something’s got to give.  

The consequence of seeding barley last is that it pushes the wheat and barley maturity close together and the canola swathing all around the same time. Now with quality being king we choose to harvest wheat first and leave the barley. Then the canola starts to shell so we move on to swathing canola and leave the barley once again. Now we’re into September and it won’t stop raining. All the while we watch our barley shrink closer to the ground and loose more heads each day.

What have we lost?

3 heads/ ft2 × 22 kernel/head × 0.054 grams/kernel ÷ 454 grams/lb = 0.0078 lbs/ft2
Pounds per acre lost = 0.0078 lbs/ft2 × 43,560 ft2/acre = 342 lbs/ac
Bushels per acre lost = 342 lbs/ac ÷ 48 lbs/bu = 7 bu/ac
Dollars lost per acre = 7 bu/ac × $4.00 bu = $28.00 acre

What to do next year?

I suggest seeding one third of your barley acres first and then switch over to canola or wheat. If you seed peas, then follow the peas with barley and move on to wheat and canola. I’ve seen more 100+ bushel barley produced by seeding May 1st, and very few years that produce 90+ bushels when seeded after May 15th. Just some food for thought! SL

My Journey in Variable Rate Technology

I spent three days reviewing NDVI imagery, zoning out fields, mapping field boundaries, importing field boundaries to GIS software, synchronizing equipment and finally I sent away three fields worth of soil samples. I would say I am one third of the way through the entire process where the end result is a variable rate nutrient prescription.

I have learned one crucial point when embarking on the VRT train: ground truthing. When the zone mapping is completed but before soil sampling starts, an individual who knows the field must accompany the soil sampler to the field to confirm that each zone on the map makes sense. Ground truthing the image is the most important first step. See map. Right click on image and choose download.

For example, if the imagery shows an area with high vegetation density and the GPS guides you to a zone that is actually a light density area, something may be wrong with the zoning or something was different in the year the imagery was taken. There could be pipelines or new leases that show up as low density areas when in fact it was cultivated at the time of the photo. You may also see the opposite where a low density area shows up as a dense patch and it turns out to be a thick wild oat patch that never grows anything but weeds.

Problem: If you look at the imagery above, you will see a VRT map with five coloured zones indicating high density olive coloured areas down to purple low density areas. When soil sampling I travelled down to the SW corner of the field where you can see a purple low density area with a blue dot beside a burgundy coloured medium density zone with a blue dot. After looking at both zones and soil sampling a test spot, the imagery did not match up with what I was seeing or knew about the field. The burgundy area was actually a low density sandy area and the purple area was a medium density zone. An untrained eye wouldn’t have noticed or perhaps not cared about the difference and a lot of time and money would have been wasted.

Solution: Take a test sample in the questionable area to see if the soil profile looks similar to any other zones. The colour and topography of each zone grows darker as you move from a low density to a high density area. If the profile resembles the look and texture of another zone, then make a note of the questionable area but leave it out. You can make adjustments when you finalize the nutrient prescription for each zone.

Market News

Feed Barley and Feed Wheat Prices

The price for feed wheat in the Calgary and Red Deer area is hovering around $210 to $215 a tonne for October and November delivery. Feed barley prices range from $181 to $186 a tonne for December delivery. Feed barley spot price in the Lethbridge area remains at $195 a tonne. Corn purchased in the Calgary area last week for November delivery averaged $194 a tonne. SL

March Canola Poised to Break Higher

I am not a grain marketer. I do, however, find it frustrating to sit on the sidelines and watch opportunities go by. For example, last August we were confident that world wheat ending stocks would be very tight with low world plantings and drought conditions in many wheat producing countries yet we sat and watched the price climb dramatically from the end of August until mid October. We also watched the ethanol boom skyrocket the price of corn last December to all time highs and thought, wow, that’s incredible. I think we have a CWB mentality- using the futures is too risky and we best leave it to someone else.  

We’re sitting on the cusp of a likely biodiesel boom. Take a look at the March 2007 canola price chart below. The May to August 07 time period follows a sideways trading pattern with a range of $20 a tonne, forms a low, and then breaks $55 higher to $465 per tonne. The September to November time period is also in a sideways trading pattern with a range of $20 a tonne. I feel this market is looking to break higher and I can’t ignore the technical and fundamental news out there that confirms my bullish sentiment. There’s been a shift away from oilseed plantings in countries like India and Europe this fall and reduced supply from China, Europe and the US this year.

Nitrogen Fertilizer Prices Rise Again

The price of urea went up another $35 a tonne last week with no real warning and now sits at $535 a tonne. For those who pre-paid in September, they have now saved $90 a tonne or nine cents a pound! Across an average of 70 lbs an acre on 4,000 acres, that’s $25,200 in savings or $6.30 an acre! With world demand and record winter wheat planting occurring in India, US, FSU and the EU, fertilizer demand will continue to outstrip supply.

While natural gas is what makes up the bulk of the production cost for nitrogen, it's just a portion of what makes up the final cost. Here in Alberta, 8 out of 10 trucks are loaded with urea and head south to the US. We in turn must import fertilizer from overseas incurring high ocean freight rates. The high cost urea is blended with the lower cost of domestically produced urea and the final price is what you see today.

Experience tells us that higher natural gas prices in the winter push spring fertilizer prices higher. Plus, there’s little letup expected in freight rates, as ship availability is limited and demand for those vessels is high. Locking in at least some of your needs to protect against further price appreciation, even though the price will be high in comparison to past years is sound risk management. SL

We Live in a Global Fertilizer Market

Whatever we thought about the domestic fertilizer market in previous years can be thrown out the window in the new reality of a world market. The fertilizer market in the UK and Canada climbed further last week in an exceedingly tight global market with rising demand. In the UK, urea is trading at $445 a tonne, $525 a tonne for phosphate and potash is selling for $395 a tonne. SL

Source: http://www.farmersguardian.com/story.asp?sectioncode=19&storycode=14024&c=1

Food Inflation in China

Government officials report that China’s food prices are up 10.6% for the first nine months of 2007, but a closer look finds that eggs are up 26% while meat prices are up a whopping 29% on the year. China wants to keep food inflation under control as it moves toward hosting the 2008 Olympics, especially among its millions of poor who spend much of their income on food. Social unrest is the last thing China wants to see in the months ahead. As such, we could see it take steps that we otherwise might not see, like importing increased amounts of those commodities used to support the livestock and poultry industries.

Source: Farm Futures Daily

Commodity Market Forecast for 2008: Summary of DTN Webinar Series

US Dollar Index- Commodities post up-trends during weakening US dollar. The 2008 US dollar price target is $68.43 cents. As US interest rates drop the US dollar drops as well.

Crude Oil- Maintains the most bullish market structure of all the commodities. Technically, oil could rally to $106.90 in 2008.

Corn- Projected acreage reduced in 2008 by 6 to 8 million acres and remains in long-term uptrend with a possible price target of $6.57 a bushel. A weak US dollar will cause more exports thereby reducing corn ending stocks. If February corn futures move past $4.37 a bushel, it creates a new possibility for $6.57 corn. What’s setting this market up? Increased demand through exports and ethanol policy, decreased acreage and the potential for weather problems after four years of consecutive high yields.

Soybeans- 2007-08 ending stocks projected at 215 million bushels. If exports remain brisk with lower US dollar, ending stocks could drop to 100 million bushels. Demand for world oilseeds continues to grow with biodiesel at the forefront. The long-term trend remains up and could extend price rallies to $12.50 to $16.42 a bushel. If corn hits $6.57, November soybeans could rally to $16.42.

Wheat- Price outlook doesn’t look good with world plantings at predicted record levels. The world supply situation is seemingly under control with high prices encouraging increased plantings, even though world stocks are at all time lows.

Upcoming Events

Agronomy Update

Registration is now open for Agronomy Update 2008.  The event will be held January 15 and 16, 2008 at the Capri Hotel in Red Deer. We have a full two days planned with sessions on new herbicides and fungicides, the emerging Alberta Carbon trading market, producing and marketing grains for ethanol, crop rotations, and pest management. The conference brochure and registration information is available on the Coming Events section of the Alberta Agriculture website:

http://www1.agric.gov.ab.ca/$department/EFE.nsf/all/efe1186

Direct Seeding Advantage

The conference is less than three weeks away and the registration deadline of Wednesday, November 7 is fast approaching. You can also get all the details here. There are still a few guest rooms available at the Executive Royal Inn where you can get a discounted rate by quoting Reduced Tillage LINKAGES. Contact the hotel at 780-986-1840.
 

Southern Alberta Conservation Association's (SACA) 14th Annual Reduced Tillage Conference

Two days of presentations on issues relating to reduced tillage, soil and water conservation, irrigation practices, forages, and farm management. For conference program inquires please contact Ken Biemans at 403-832-3961. For registration and payment inquiries please contact Robin Gardner at The CANHOST Group, Lethbridge. Phone: 403-380-3467

Brochure: http://www.reducedtillage.ca/eventdocs/SACA_2007_Brochure.pdf