Agronomist Notes
It’s been a hurry up and wait kind of fall, with whole days devoted to harvest few and far between. (Come to think of it, these observations are familiar as I recall typing similar words during seeding time...) I think most producers are sitting on at least a few loads of tough grain. Fortunately, most of it went into the bin with ambient temperatures below 200C so it will store just fine.
Remember the canola discussion in last week’s newsletter? Well, I’m starting to hear reports of sell outs on certain InVigor varieties. The cost is roughly $6.10 to $6.20 per pound and slightly higher for 5440 if you buy before November. From the early plot yield data I’ve seen, the 5440 looks to be the highest yielding variety out there. Refer to the October 9th issue for InVigor variety comparisons.
I’ve been working on a few projects lately that involve carbon credit trading and variable rate nutrient technology. Firstly, I’ve been asked by a company (name to be announced) to host a pilot project with my clients to test and verify some high yielding soil carbon sequestration science. In return for participating, my clients will be offered an above market price for their soil carbon credits with a first right of refusal for the offer. Secondly, I had a successful meeting with a gentleman from Farmers Edge, a company who provides variable rate technology and support. I believe we’ll begin the process of applying this technology to a few of my client’s farms within the next few weeks. I’ve said it before; I feel there is no better time to approach this opportunity at $0.47/lb nitrogen and $0.31/lb phosphorous. It wouldn’t take much to gain a return on your investment.
In this week’s newsletter you’ll read about what’s up with carbon credit trading, my thoughts on precision ag, foliar applied fertility programs, and finally, an intriguing discovery of stripe rust on foxtail barley.
Agronomy
Carbon Credit Trading Update
Global trade in carbon is a growing business. According to the World Bank, international carbon sales quadrupled in 2006 to over $25B US. In North America, a patchwork quilt of voluntary and regulated carbon markets is emerging, causing a lot of confusion for buyers and sellers as to ‘what counts’ in these developing markets. Several companies in Alberta, called aggregators, are aggressively pursuing contracts with farmers and ranchers to secure carbon credits for sale into these markets.
The National Scene
In Canada, there’s been a lot of signalling but limited concrete action towards establishing a country-wide compliance-based carbon market (also known as Carbon Offset market). Without clearly established rules that (a) set targets for companies to reduce their GHG emissions – establishing a demand for carbon; and (b) set standards for the supply side (i.e. what counts and how many tonnes of carbon can be reduced from an activity), most sales tend to be speculative and occur at the margins. With federal politics being what they are, we can’t be sure when a national Offset System will be in place.
The Provincial Scene
At the Provincial level – at least 5 provinces have signalled their intentions to move forward with regulatory frameworks for Greenhouse Gases. In the lead is Alberta, with Greenhouse Gas regulations set in place July 1, 2007. Alberta rules will allow regulated companies to purchase offsets created only in Alberta to meet their targets, enabling a compliance-based carbon offset market in this province. The intent is to keep investment in Carbon Offset projects within the province, creating more benefits for Albertans from improved stewardship of our resources.
To learn more click on: http://www1.agric.gov.ab.ca/$department/deptdocs.nsf/all/cl11179
Precision Agriculture – Is it worth it?
Have a look at the soil profile in the picture below. There’s roughly four inches of sandy loam soil sitting on top of a beach in 1/3 of this field. What if I told you that I manage many fields that contain similar variability for one reason or another, maybe salinity, soil texture, topography or perhaps a reclaimed farmstead? So why do we apply seed, fertilizer and fungicides at the same rate across the entire field? We know that variations in soil type, topography, drainage and numerous other factors affect the production potential of different areas within a single field. Precision agriculture simply proposes that you manage your fields from a production standpoint that you’ve always accepted. You have probably heard the old saw: "If you can measure it, you can manage it." The essence precision ag is the mapping and measurement of "within field variability" in order to make sound "within field production decisions". The cost of this technology is now around $7.00 an acre. At $4.00 barley, $6.00 wheat, $9.50 canola and $500/tonne fertilizer, is there a better time to look at precision technologies? SL
September 2007, shallow loam over sand. Photo source: Steve Larocque
Thoughts on Foliar Fertilizers
One of things I’ve been trying to get a handle on is foliar applying fertilizers. If you talk to an academic or extension specialist they will tell you foliar feeding is a waste of time. Many a battle or heated discussion at agronomy conferences surround the debate of foliar fertilizers. and there value. In most instances under conventional circumstances there is no crop response to foliar feeding and farmers end up concluding it was a waste of time and money.
However, top US farmers like Ray Rawson, Bill Darrington, Kip Cullers, Keith Schlapkohl, Francis Childs and others who win yield contests use a foliar program successfully. And if you ask them for their recipe, they will not give it to you. Why, because the program they use may not be right for your situation and more than likely it will not work and the farmer will get disenchanted with using a foliar and never get an opportunity to see it work.
Before you use a foliar you have to be doing the right agronomy, you have to set the plant up to succeed. You have to have a strong root system in place, nutrients available in ample supply where the crop can get them and no compaction. "Then and only then should you consider a foliar program."
Ray Rawson uses foliars on his 8,000 acre soybean farm in central Michigan. But he is aware that farmers will fail if they just rush out and apply any foliar program at any time they choose. There is more to it including the right product combination and timing for the stage of the crop.
There is a huge disconnect on how to properly use foliars and there are significant regional differences in what to apply and when."One size does not fit all."
I must admit that my conventional agronomy training has led me to believe that applying a foliar nutrition on cereal crops is unresponsive and uneconomical. But these top producers use it successfully and consider it an integral part of their crop management program.
My gut instinct tells me foliars have a place in crop production when used right. However you have to understand what you are doing and why, have the right product combination and timing in place to make it work. SL
Stripe Rust Found on Foxtail Barley, Acme
Last week, while checking a wheat field near Acme to decide on a post-harvest strategy for controlling foxtail barley, I noticed the foxtail barley leaves were covered with stripe rust. The incidence of stripe rust has increased dramatically over the last five years with yield losses in CPS wheat up to 50%. Alberta
Agriculture put together a research initiative this year to help get a handle on this rising problem. Historically, stripe rust used to blow in on southeast winds when the US winter wheat harvest began in early July. By the time it entered Alberta our crops were past the stage where the rust could do economical damage. Well, after seeing stripe every year for the last five years, we suspect it’s overwintering in on winter wheat and/or other plants that remain green during winter. Stripe rust needs live tissue to survive. The researchers have not seen stripe rust on foxtail barley before and will begin to investigate my discovery. SL
October 2007, Stripe rust on foxtail barley. Photo source: Steve Larocque
Market News
New Legislation Provides More Options for Alberta Farmers
Recent amendments to the Farm Implement Act allows financial institutions to offer leasing options for farm equipment directly to agricultural producers. With the increasing trend towards leasing farm equipment, allowing direct leasing and lease purchasing provides for greater consumer choice and lower cost for farmers. The legislation will allow leases without having to obtain a farm implement dealer's licence. Dealers and distributors will continue to provide warranty and parts.
Could wheat prices re-test recent highs?
With continuing strong demand for wheat, there may be some more rationing and another run at the old highs, depending on how good or bad the Australian wheat crop is. At a press briefing hosted by the CME Group held at the Chicago Board of Trade, Jack Scoville, an analyst for the Price Futures Group, noted, “Having wheat ending stocks projections at close to 300 million bushels implies we’re still in a very tight situation here in the United States and the world numbers are also pretty tight. “It underscores the fact that we need to get our wheat crop planted, and hopefully in the next year, we’ll grow a lot more wheat to start rebuilding some of these supplies. For now, it implies wheat prices should continue to hold the highs.”
Source: http://deltafarmpress.com/wheat/071012-wheat-prices/
Is Wheat On The Way Down?
Wheat prices are high and you have to wonder if this bull trend is close to being done. From Nebraska to Texas, the winter wheat crop is being planted and, with the help of a little rain last weekend, conditions have been favourable. On Friday, the USDA said that its estimate of 2007-2008 U.S. ending stocks was 307 million bushels, the lowest since 1948-49. The USDA's estimate of world ending stocks was 107 million tons, the lowest since 1975-76. December wheat finished the week down 32.5 cents at $8.575.
Source: Dailyfutures.com
Wheat Futures Dip
The market has seen recent liquidation selling of long positions in the US, EU and UK markets, as end-users continue to look at other alternatives to replace wheat due to the high price. We believe that demand is still to be covered in the New Year, and this may support prices as stocks are estimated to decline. However, the prospects of larger wheat plantings, especially in the EU for 2008 may dampen any rally.
Source: http://www.gleadell.co.uk/MarketReport.htm
Market Focus - Wheat market stumbles
PFCanada boosted wheat sales to start this week through the use of Canadian Wheat Board Fixed Price and Daily Price Contracts. If wheat markets were to again surge higher between now and the end of October, I may again consider such sales. However, for the remaining 35 per cent of milling wheat going to market, we may be inclined to push this wheat through the traditional CWB pool and hope for the best.
U.S. wheat futures markets have posted extended losses over the last few trading sessions. Price pressure comes from talk that the fundamental situation, while still bullish, can't get much more bullish at this time, with all news now incorporated into market prices.
Source: http://www.fcc-fac.ca/newsletters/en/express/articles/20071012_e.asp#8
US Likely To Have Above-Average Winter Temperatures
The US is likely to have above average temperatures this winter, US government forecasters said Tuesday. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration also predicted that drier-than-average conditions in the Southwest and Southeast in areas already affected by droughts would continue. The big concern this winter may be the persistence of drought across large parts of the already parched South. This winter is expected to be 2.8% warmer than the 30-year norm, but still 1.3% cooler than last year.
This could have a bearing on wheat prices as the market looks at potential drought situations in the southern US winter wheat belt. It could also mean a reduction in the price of natural gas over the winter, translating to lower cost nitrogen production. SL
Reference: CBOT News
