Agronomist Notes

Mitch and I finished up harvest last Friday, just before the snow and rain hit on Sunday. How many times I’ve voiced my thankfulness! Most producers have finished as well but there are still some waiting on canola to cure down to 2% green to save a grade. Here’s hoping the wet weather works out for them.

We’re getting a mild taste of the months to come with temperatures below zero for much of the week and intermittent rain and snow. This has put a screeching halt to fall perennial weed control. However, it is just the beginning of October so we should get some decent weather to begin Avadex, Pre-Pass and anhydrous applications.

This week we’ll discuss the advantages of leaving canola in the swath if you managed to survive the wind storms. Next, we’ll discuss the risks of letting canola stand too long when planning to straight cut. I’ll also talk about targeting higher plant stand densities in wheat. We’ll look at a potential source of compaction caused by low draft openers and finish the agronomy section with my thoughts on AC Harvest wheat and ergot. Bruce Love will give us a carbon market update and we’ll finish with fundamental and technical grain market news with global weather updates. Have a great week.

Pictured above: N7 Gleaner harvesting 51 bu/ac wheat at 5.5 mph. No dockage, no cracked kernels, no kidding.

Agronomy

Leaving canola swathed is risky but can pay dividends

Driving around the countryside you can see a few canola fields yet to be harvested. The $0.34 to $0.57 a bushel discount for a No. 2 grade has producers risking the elements by leaving swaths in the field, hoping for precipitation to drop the green seed count below 2%. During this process, moisture levels, which have been hovering around 5.5%, may increase to 9 or 10%. If that occurs, producers will realize an increased bushel weight from higher seed moisture content. 

Hmmm. I wonder how much weight and money we stand to gain by increasing moisture content in canola. Now, I know what you’re thinking so step away from that garden hose.

Steve’s quick math

Let’s do some figuring here. Canola is 50 lbs per bushel.
50 lbs × 5.5% moisture = 2.75 lbs of water
50 lbs ×10% moisture = 5 lbs of water
Net gain in weight going from 5.5% to 10% moisture is 2.25 lbs per bushel

A 30 bu/ac canola crop × 2.25 lbs/water = 67.5 lbs/acre 
Net gain is 67.5 lbs/ac ÷ 50 lbs/bu = 1.35 bu/ac
1.35 bu/ac × $8.60 bu = $11.61/acre

OK then, if you can wait out the weather and gain a few percent in moisture, you could be adding another $10.00 to $12.00 an acre to the bottom line. If the green seed count doesn’t drop and you still end up with a No. 2 grade, then the $10.00 an acre loss you got from the drop in grade will be made up in the $11.00 gain in moisture. If you drop the green seed count and you don’t lose a grade, you’ve just yelled Bingo! and you can collect your $20.00 an acre prize at the elevator. Don’t drop your dobber. SL

The risks of choosing to straight cut canola too late in the season

One of the things I recommend when deciding to straight cut canola is to make the decision around the second week of August. Why? By the second week of August you should know whether you will be swathing within two weeks and if so, chances are the crop will be ready to straight cut by the second week of September.

When you throw caution to the wind and make the call at the end of August, a calamity of errors ensues. First, daylight hours start to decline rapidly which slows maturity. Second, daily temperature swings begin to weaken the plant. Third, we tend to get multiple frosts in September which compromises the integrity and strength of the plant. Last, we typically have strong blasts of wind from the north, west and south as the warm summer air collides with the cool polar air. These factors work against you and yield loss can be dramatic.

I’ve been driving by the same field of Proven 9550 canola all summer long and it was the nicest crop along that stretch of highway. It had a thick pod density, a nice lean to the crop and fairly even maturity. The one thing against it was that maturity was quite delayed. As the crop ripened by the end of September it still looked like a 35 to 40 bushel crop, but then the winds came.

A late September storm with wind gusts up to 70 km per hour wreaked havoc on both swathed and standing canola across my entire territory. I decided to have a closer look at that nice looking crop of 9550 which appeared to have survived the storm. When I looked at the ground beneath that standing canola, all I saw were pods, still intact with seeds in them, with counts up to 20 pods per square foot on the ground!

I did the math and worked out an approximate 3.5 bu/ac or 10% loss from the wind. I know the damage would not have been as severe had the storm struck in early September rather than later. The plants would have been a lot stronger and the petioles that attach the pod to the stem would not have been as weak. Keep the decision to straight cut canola simple and worthwhile. Make the decision around the second week of August and you can help prevent thousands of dollars in damage.  SL

Achieving maximum wheat yield through higher plant stand densities 

My clients and I have been targeting plant stand densities in wheat at 30 plants per ft2 for the last two years in hopes of pushing yield, maturity and crop uniformity. The normal recommendation for the area is 24 plants per ft2.

To prove my point, we’ve been planting the variety CDC Go at 145 lbs an acre, which is about 25% higher than most. In 2008, we produced a 60 bu/ac crop, followed by a 51 bu/ac crop in 2009. I can’t see us going back to lower plant stand densities with these results.

Achieving maximum yield is a game of numbers and efficiency. Did you know that 50% of your wheat yield comes from the main stem and the other 50% comes from the next two tillers? That tells me that a main stem is twice as efficient at producing grain compared to a tiller. Would it not stand to reason that you would want as many main stems as possible?

Steve’s quick math

To achieve a theoretical maximum yield, you need X amount of plants, heads, kernels with a given weight to achieve a yield of X. Knowing that, let’s run some examples to see what an average plant population will give and what a high plant population will do.

Example 1: 24 plants/ft2 at 30 grams per 1,000 kernels in AC Harvest wheat.
Calculator: Heads/m2 × kernels/head × 10,000 m2/ha × (TKW in grams ÷ 1,000) ÷ 1,000,000 = t/ha
732 × 28 × 10,000 × (30 ÷ 1000) ÷ 1,000,000 = 6.14 t/ha
6.14 t/ha × 36.744 bu/t ÷ 2.471 ac/ha = 91 bu/ac

Example 2: 30 plants/ft2 at 30 grams per 1,000 kernels in AC Harvest wheat.
Calculator: Heads/m2 × kernels/head × 10,000 m2/ha × (TKW in grams ÷ 1,000) ÷ 1,000,000 = t/ha
915 × 28 × 10,000 × (30 ÷ 1000) ÷ 1,000,000 = 7.68 t/ha
7.68 t/ha × 36.744 bu/t ÷ 2.471 ac/ha = 114 bu/ac

All things being relative and putting the lofty yield estimates aside, if you farm in an area that has yielded over 50 bu/ac in the last few years, I would start playing with higher plant stand densities to see how far you can push yield, maturity and crop uniformity. I’ll bet you’ll see improvements. SL

Pictured above: Mike Solari’s 204 bu/ac wheat crop in New Zealand. It doesn’t even come to my waist!

Low draft openers may be creating hidden compaction layers

I’ve noticed more and more canola with bent stems and roots below the soil surface. I typically find these symptoms in fields where low draft openers were used, especially in clay soils. I suspect the flat bottomed surface of the low draft openers may be causing a smearing effect as it drags through the soil. When the seed germinates and the radical tries to find its way downward, it finds the area along the soil with the least amount of resistance and begins to grow downward. The end result is a bent root or stem that was forced to go looking for softer ground.

Herein lies the questions like how many plants are we losing from seedlings running out of energy before they can set root? What kind of water, energy and nutrient use efficiencies are we losing from small areas of compaction? Does it even matter? I will try to address those questions next season as I put low draft openers under the microscope. SL

AC Harvest very susceptible to ergot

You may remember an article on ergot a few weeks ago when I mentioned that it seemed non-exisient this year. However, there were a few areas, particularly around Durmheller that had egot show up in AC Harvest wheat sample, though not enough to cause a down grade. Of any year in the last five growing seasons, levels should be very low or even non-existent given the cold, dry spring. What’s interesting is that my clients who grow CDC Go don’t have any signs of it. The obvious conclusion is that AC Harvest is very susceptible to ergot, even in a year when risk of ergot infection is low. If you’ve been having trouble with ergot in your wheat samples and it is costing you a grade, perhaps it may be time to switch varieties. SL  

Carbon News

Alberta tillage offsets come under fire

October 5, 2009- Preferred Carbon has always been outspoken about the data quality and rigor required to create high quality greenhouse gas (GHG) offsets and how this relates to market values. It’s the data and its accuracy that quantifies the amount of GHGs reduced, sequestered, or destroyed by a process recognized in a GHG protocol. Therefore, it should come as no surprise that Alberta’s Auditor General identified some significant concerns with the GHG offsets used by large final emitters (LFEs), and tillage offsets in particular.

The recently released Auditor General’s Report, available at http://www.oag.ab.ca/files/oag/OAGOct2009report.pdf, covers a wide range of Government activities in its report evaluating the implementation of regulations and whether or not objectives were met. The report spans some 352 pages, but of interest here is a quote from page 47 as follows:

“Our audit findings

Tillage guidance

The offset protocols allowed offsets to be claimed for activities that occurred in the 2002–2006 period, well before the timing of any verification activities. For the tillage protocol, the Department identified “farm records and an affirmation from the project developer” as the source of evidence for no-till and reduced-till practices, but did not indicate required sources of corroborating evidence to substantiate the records.

In our opinion, the level of evidence defined as acceptable by the Department falls below that which is necessary to provide assurance that the offset credits actually existed. The Department should work with project proponents to identify other sources of evidence that the proponents will be able to collect and
the verifiers will be able to test. We acknowledge that in the 2007 compliance period, through the processes of verification and re-verification, the Department obtained assurance that verifiers collected corroborating evidence. We also acknowledge that, by the end of our audit, the Department was in the process of assessing the 2008 offsets used for compliance reporting.”

The Auditor General’s opinion of tillage offsets is very clear, due diligence by aggregators must be improved. This likely means that aggregators, in general, must more closely investigate the farm records they are collecting to establish that the no-till and reduced-till activities occurred, that the land was indeed owned by the entity signing the contract, and the number of acres claimed was accurate. So it would appear that higher standards can be created and are likely on the way.

The implications of higher verification standards are twofold: 1) aggregators will be required to conduct significantly more due diligence than they do today and 2) verification costs will increase. This could result in lower returns for farmers if a corresponding increase in the price cap does not accompany the higher standards. As aggregators’ costs rise, they will need to claim a higher share of the offsets for their services. Another consequence of higher standards may be that farms without good records will no longer qualify. 

Overall, the Auditor General’s report can be considered a good wake up call for improvements to the GHG offset system. The goal of the offsets system is to create real, measurable, and verifiable reductions in GHGs as a compliance option for LFEs while meeting the policy goal of reducing the intensity of GHG emissions. But let’s not miss the obvious impact of the move to higher standards, aggregators will be well motivated to sign up farms as soon as possible and avoid the costs of higher standards. So get ready for the rush to sign up farmers on the basis that there is no time like the present to get them credits sold!

Reference: Bruce Love, Preferred Carbon
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author only and are not intended to represent financial advice.

Market News

Fundamental Grain Market News

World Production in Million Metric Tonnes   Sept 09 ending stocks vs five year average

	Production			Ending Stocks			Ending Stocks
	2007-08	Sep-09	Change	2007-08	Sep-09	Change	5 Year Avg
Rapeseed	48.4	56.5	17%	3	4.9	59%	4.6	8%
Barley	133.2	142.9	7%	18	27.1	50%	25.7	5%
Wheat	610.6	663.7	9%	119	186.6	56%	138.6	35%
Corn	792.3	794.1	0%	128	139.1	9%	125.9	11%
Soybeans	220.9	243.9	10%	53	50.5	-5%	54	-6%

International Crop & Weather News

Western Canada: Harvest is now 86-per-cent complete across the Prairies, with the cereal-grain harvest virtually complete except in northern Saskatchewan. Moderate-to-heavy rains and scattered frosts in eastern Saskatchewan and western Manitoba slowed harvest progress over the past week. Temperatures cooled dramatically on the Prairies, hovering one to four degrees below normal. Significant frost in Alberta and parts of Saskatchewan officially ended the growing season there.

United States: In the West, rain and snow showers linger across the northern Intermountain region. Elsewhere, cool, dry weather favors fieldwork, including winter wheat planting and cotton and rice harvesting. On the Plains, a winter-like storm is producing chilly rain, wet snow, and gusty winds across northern portions of the region. Meanwhile on the central and southern Plains, occasional rain and drizzle and cool conditions are slowing summer crop maturation and hampering fieldwork. In the Corn Belt, favorably mild, dry weather temporarily prevails across eastern portions of the region. However, cold, rainy weather is returning to the western Corn Belt.

Middle East: Showers in Turkey and northwestern Iran provide topsoil moisture for winter wheat planting.

Europe: Dry weather returns to Europe, accelerating summer crop harvesting and winter crop planting. However, soil moisture reserves are declining across northern and eastern crop areas, and remain very short in Spain.

Former Soviet Union: In western Russia and Ukraine, warm, dry weather continues to aid summer crop harvesting and winter grain planting. Rain is needed for winter grain germination and establishment. Several days of dry weather help spring grain harvesting in Kazakhstan, while intermittent showers cause some harvest interruptions in the Urals and Siberia Districts in Russia. In cotton areas of Central Asia, warm, dry weather in the south favors boll maturation and harvest.

East Asia: Several days of dry weather favor summer crop harvesting and late-season corn and rice maturation throughout China. Freezing temperatures are confined to northernmost growing areas in Heilongjiang.

Southeast Asia: Tropical Cyclone Ketsana worsens flooding in the Philippines, delaying preparations for rice and corn harvesting. Widespread showers benefit rice throughout Thailand and Vietnam.

South Asia: Unfavorable dryness in central and northern India reduces soil moisture for filling oilseeds. Showers in southern India maintain favorable prospects for groundnuts and sugarcane.

Australia: In southeastern Australia, soaking rains are very beneficial for reproductive to filling winter grains; crop conditions are likely good to excellent across most of this region. Showers continue to favor winter grain and oilseed development in Western Australia. Heat and dryness plague Queensland, further reducing the yield potential of filling winter wheat.South America: Drier weather promotes summer grain and oilseed planting in central Argentina, but patchy frost raises concern for potential damage to heading winter wheat. Rain in central Brazil increases moisture for corn and soybean planting and promotes coffee flowering.

Mexico: Rainfall was lighter than in recent weeks, reducing moisture for corn and other rain-fed summer crops.

Source: USDA