Agronomist Notes
In the last week, many producers knocked down canola in the east while producers in the west are waiting on maturity. Very little harvest progress has been made with cool, wet weather and this week’s forecast looks no different. Environment Canada is calling for a -8C this Friday on the eastern side of my territory and a -3C in the west. Here’s hoping they’re wrong! If they’re right, harvest will grab a couple of gears.
Yields reports that I’ve heard so far are outstanding with clients averaging 85+ bu/ac on winter wheat and some averaging 100 bu/ac on peas. Barley yields have been hovering around 95 to 110 bu/ac with some six row barley pushing 130 bu/ac. Quantity will be there this year but quality is still a question mark. If you have wheat fields that are still green and you’ve had a few frosts, I’d be looking into selling some as feed before the market takes a dive. I’ve heard feed wheat prices in the high $4.50 to $4.90/bu range. I’d take 60 bu at $4.50 over 60 bu at $3.00 any day.
This week we’ll look at the decision whether to swath canola or let it stand before a killing frost. Next, I’ve included a success story on using high plant densities to generate yield, quality and maturity. Next, I’ll update you on the use of a strobi fungicide program as part of your harvest management. Last, I’ll run the number on baling and selling straw for 2010. We’ll finish with fundamental and technical grain market news.
Agronomy
Deciding whether to swath canola or let it stand before a killing frost
On Friday there’s a chance for severe frost in my territory with temperatures predicted as low as -3C in the west and -8C in the east. This could leave many wondering if they should swath canola immediately to allow the crop to dry down below 20% moisture to avoid damage. Unfortunately, with rain and temperatures in the low teens all week, crops have very little chance to dry down much below what they are today. The biggest question is whether to swath or let it stand to avoid frost damage. Here is some great advice given by the Canola Council of Canada:
The answer is "yes" if: Seed has matured to at least 15% or 20% seed colour change on the main stem and if seeds are firm all the way to the top. The yield penalty from swathing this crop early will be relatively small. It may not dry down to below 20% but drying it down to 30% will cause less frost damage than staying at 45-50% — especially if the temperature gets down to -3°C or more. Swathing these crops today may help save the grade, and if the frost doesn’t materialize growers won’t have sacrificed too much yield.
Leave the field standing if: Seed colour change is less than 10% with lots of watery seed in upper pods and pods on branches. These really green fields likely won’t dry down enough to completely protect them anyway. By leaving these fields standing, growers could see higher yields IF the forecast frost doesn’t materialize or isn’t severe.
Source: Canola Council of Canada
Seeding rate success story: Teaching an old dog new tricks
Back in April I consulted with a long time malt barley grower on increasing his seeding rates to improve maturity, quality and yield. This producer has achieved malt quality on his barley 25 of the 26 years he’s been farming and was reluctant to change given his success. Perhaps my hard line sales pitch worked or maybe I caught him at weak moment because he decided to go for it.
The historical seeding rate that led to his high success rate was 75 lbs/ac with Metcalfe barley. After calculating seeding rate and estimating projected mortality rate, I came up with a seeding rate of 111 lbs/ac. That’s 48% higher than his typical 75 lb seeding rate. Quite the leap of faith on his part! Anyhow, the crop was planted April 25th and was one of the only fields in the area harvested before September. The best part is that he nailed the ultimate combination of high yield, top quality and early maturity. Here are the specifics on the rain and agronomy:
Seeding rate: 20 plants/ft2 x 51 grams/tkw ÷ (98% germ - 10% mortality) ÷ 10.4 = 111 lbs/ac
Variety: AC Metcalfe
Planted: April 25th into canola stubble
Fertilizer: 60-25-0-0 @ 168 lbs/ac
Rain: May 1.65”, June 2.75”, July 2.44”, August 2.75” = 9.59” + 1” soil moisture = 10.59”
Harvest: Aug 25th
Yield: 95 bu/ac
Water use efficiency: 8.97 bu/inch
Quality: malt specs 10.8% protein, 14.3% moisture, 95% plump
I have examples like this every year and I encourage everyone to start using higher plant stand densities to their advantage. The trick is to calculate and document plant stand densities as well as measure mortality rates each year at the three to five-leaf stages. This will allow you to fine tune how high you can go each year under your system with your varieties and your management history. The result could mean earlier maturity, higher yields and improved grain quality. SL
Using strobi fungicides as part of a harvest management tool
Strobi
A common misconception about fungicides containing strobilurin is that they delay maturity. The reality is that strobi fungicides like Quilt only prevent premature death from disease and other environmental stresses rather than physically change the plants maturity. The stay-green effect may cause concern to some but I see it as a harvest management tool to help speed up and improve pre-harvest dry down applications of glyphosate.
In the picture you see here the plants on the left had a treatment of Quilt at early heading and the plants on the right had no fungicide at all. You can see in the top photo how the leaves are still green from the Quilt and the leaves are dead on the right. The difference in maturity between the two plants was roughly five to seven days, a difference between medium dough and soft dough.
The crop was sprayed on Aug 31st with 0.75 L/ac of VantagePlus Max the day after the top picture was taken. I went back yesterday, two weeks after the glyphosate application to find there was no difference in maturity between the treated side and the untreated side. I couldn’t get a moisture sample due to the wet weather but the kernels physically felt and looked to be the same maturity. This tells me the glyphosate is working faster in the treated side versus the untreated side.
As I’ve mentioned before, using glyphosate to speed up dry down on a crop that has no green leaves will only leave you disappointed. I’d say the bottom line is using a strobi in your fungicide program will allow you to maximize grain fill by keeping leaves greener longer but also give you the option of shutting the plant down with glyphosate when you want it to. Not a bad combination in my opinion. I’d like to investigate further in 2011. SL
Is baling and selling straw in 2010 a wise move?
Since downgrading in cereals could be possible in this crumby weather, it might not be a bad idea to boost revenue potential by baling and selling the straw. I'm not a fan of removing straw from the field every year but I am a fan of profit and sometimes it does make sense to sell the straw. Many grain farmers don't have baling equipment so it must be hired out and trucked away, which is how I set up the example for crunching the numbers below. I’ll include the value of nutrients removed and include custom rates of baling and hauling to see what makes sense.
Steve's quick math
On average, a tonne of wheat (36 bu/ac) will yield a tonne of straw (2,200 lbs). The present value of fertilizer is roughly $0.44 lb for urea, $0.43 lb for phosphate, $0.41 for potash and $0.27 lb for sulphur.
Nutrient content in 2,200 lbs of barley straw: 14.5 lbs N, 4.5 lbs P, 37 lbs K, 1.1 lbs S
Cost of nutrients per tonne: $23.50
Nutrient content in 2,200 lbs of wheat straw: 19 lbs N, 4.5 lbs P, 40 lbs K, 3.3 lbs S
Cost of nutrients per tonne: $27.53
Baling rates
Custom baling: $15.00 per bale net wrapped or twine
Loading bales: $2.35 per bale for self-loading truck
The value of wheat or barley straw in today's market is around $0.018 lb ($40/tonne). If we begin by looking at the exportable nutrient content in wheat and barley straw, it would be cheaper to sell barley straw versus wheat as fewer nutrients are exported in barley. For example, a 1,000 lb bale of wheat straw would export $12.38 in nutrients versus a 1,000 lb bale of barley straw at $10.57
Next, the cost of producing a round bale at today's price is roughly $15.00 a bale to have someone custom bale it and $2.35 a bale to have it hauled off the field. In total, it would cost you approximately $17.35 per bale to have it done. At a price of $0.018 lb or $40 a tonne, that's a net profit of only $0.65 per 1,000 lb bale or $1.43 per tonne. However, that doesn't include the cost of nutrients removed in the straw. If you include the value of nutrients removed from the field, you're looking at a loss of -$11.73 per 1,000 lb bale for wheat straw and -$9.92 per bale for barley straw.
In the end, with most wheat and barley crops looking to average 60+ bu and 90+ bu per acre respectively, that’s approximately 1.75 T/ac. It will cost you roughly $38 a tonne to bale and stack it when it’s only worth $40 a tonne. In my opinion, the only reason you would sell straw this year is to manage residue and help provide a better seedbed for next year, not because you’re making money on it. SL
Update on crops in New South Wales, Australia
I always find it unreal that we plant our crops the same time as the Aussies and by this time of year we’re into harvest and they are just starting to flower and head out. I’ve included some recent photos from the farm of Murray Scholz near Culcairn, NSW.
Market News
Fundamental News
| World Production in Million Metric Tonnes | Ending Stocks 5-Year Avg | Sep Ending Stocks vs 5-Year Avg | ||||||
| Crop | Production | Ending Stocks | ||||||
| 2008-09 | Aug - 10 | Change | 2008 - 09 | Aug - 10 | Change | |||
| Rapeseed | 57.9 | 56.7 | -2% | 6.7 | 4.8 | -29% | 4.6 | 4% |
| Barley | 154.9 | 127.9 | -17% | 30.6 | 21.3 | -30% | 25.7 | -17% |
| Wheat | 683.2 | 645.0 | -6% | 165 | 174.7 | -6% | 138.6 | 26% |
| Corn | 794.7 | 831.5 | 5% | 147 | 139.1 | -5% | 125.9 | 10% |
| Soybeans | 211.7 | 253.6 | -20% | 42.8 | 64.7 | 51% | 54 | 20% |
