Agronomist Notes

What an unbelievable stretch of weather we’ve had since September 1st! Three weeks of hot, dry weather allowed many to get their wheat off in top grade and let the immature canola stand a little longer before swathing. I’ve been amazed at the yields I’ve heard around the country with canola over 40 bushels and wheat up to 60.

With most producers finished their wheat and barley, many are taking the time to do post harvest spraying and field preparation for next spring. The warm weather has been ideal for weed regrowth and fall spraying.

In this week’s newsletter I’ll begin with a few post-harvest comments and why some areas along the headlands didn’t show signs of drought this year. I’ll briefly discuss why we aren’t seeing much ergot and provide some post harvest tips for fall weed control. We’ll talk about the use of Pre-Pass versus glyphosate in the fall and finish with tips on applying granular herbicides this fall. Bruce Love will give us an update on what the Manitoba government’s doing with their carbon reduction plans and we’ll finish with fundamental and technical grain market news. Have a great week. SL

Agronomy

Harvest progress (Calgary to Drumheller to Three Hills) as of September 21

Wheat  95%
Canola  75%
Barley  95%
Peas  100%

There are always yield surprises at harvest time

My lesson for the year is to never judge a book by its cover, especially with canola and especially in June or even July! I admit that I am eating a generous slice of humble pie after predicting 20 bushel canola yields back in June. Who would have thought pale yellow canola plants with blackened cotyledons, buried under heavy residue, averaging less than two plants per square foot would finish the season at 45 bushels an acre?? I didn’t see that one coming!

At the time of my spring prediction, I thought 20 bushel canola at ten bucks would get you close to a breakeven. If you reseeded to feed barley, your yield potential would be 65 bushels at three bucks leaving you $195 minus the cost of the reseed. In the end, I was a little off- OK, a lot off- on my yield estimates but reseeding to barley would have required 140 bushels an acre to equal the revenue produced by leaving the canola. This humble pie tastes pretty sweet. SL 

Better yields and crop height along the headlands

Did you notice as you were harvesting or swathing this fall, you could see areas of excellent crop growth meandering along the headlands? In most fields you could see a wavy pattern of excellent crop growth that stretched along each headland, especially in clay soils. These areas would stretch out ten or twenty feet from the field edge and then crop height and yield would suddenly drop off as you moved inward. Many people would chalk that up to more snow catch along the headlands and more moisture trapped in the soil, but I believe it was something else.

With my trusty compaction meter in hand, I stopped in several places throughout the season to investigate what was causing this noticeable difference in crop height. In early July I could push the probe all the way down to the handle in the good areas, even after just 2 inches of cumulative rainfall. Where crop height dropped in half I could only push the probe down a foot. I suspect that not every headland on clay soil had a snow bank to provide more moisture and I believe the difference is compaction vs. no compaction.

Let’s think about this for a second. Where would you find the least amount of wheel traffic in a field? The least amount of traffic would be along the headland where wheel tracks might begin 10 to 20 feet from the field’s edge. If soil compaction has reduced crop height and yield so noticeably just outside the headland, what has it done to the rest of your field? The only solution to this problem is controlled traffic farming to reduce wheel tracks down to just 11% of your field instead of 100%.

I have to ask the question: If you could produce 30 to 50% more grain in drier years using controlled traffic, why wouldn’t you? My Australian friends who don’t enjoy crop insurance programs like we do are all over controlled traffic farming because they know they can produce more grain with less rain. Some people see the problems controlled traffic might introduce, but all I can see is opportunity. SL

Very few signs of ergot this year

Many producers were scratching their heads trying to find ways to control ergot in wheat this spring. There was talk of applying copper, switching to barley, mowing the brome grass along the headlands and even spraying it with glyphosate to set it back a few weeks to delay flowering. Incidentally, the spring weather provided the best antidote for the pest- drought!

Ergot fungal bodies (sclerotes) require a period of wetness during the spring in order to germinate and eventually produce infectious spores. 2006, 2007 and 2008 all had wet springs and saw higher levels of ergot infections. This fall, you’ll notice very little ergot in your wheat samples but whether or not ergot is a problem for 2010 will depend on soil conditions next spring. SL

Post-harvest spraying can eliminate next year’s pre-seed burn-off

Over the last few years, I’ve had a few producers apply glyphosate and Pre-Pass at the end of September and early October, even after a few killing frosts. The results have been excellent: great control of fall germinating weeds like narrow-leaf hawk’s beard, dandelion, flixweed, and foxtail barley, and the elimination of a pre-seed application in the spring. With the spring work load reduced, seeding can commence very early without having to wait for the right conditions to spray or the right number of days to seed after spraying.

With excellent weed regrowth this fall and warm growing conditions, a successful post-harvest spray season is now upon us. Here are a few tips for fall weed control: 

• Heavy harrow soon after combining to allow weeds more time to recover.
• If a frost up to -8°C occurs, wait at least two days for the plants to recuperate and then check for frost damage. Make sure to check all areas of the field as low-lying areas tend to receive more frost than higher ground.
• Ensure weeds are actively growing. At least 60% of the plant must be green for herbicides to work effectively. 
• The best time to control winter annuals is in the fall when the plants are still small and have not had enough time to store sugar for spring regrowth. 
• For good control, you need to have several warm days (15°C or above) after application for the herbicide to translocate to the root.
• You can also use residual products like Pre-Pass and Express Pro to kill weeds as they germinate or use 2,4-D, MCPA, Express, dicamba or glyphosate.

Common Weeds in Order of Frost Tolerance

1. Dandelion
2. Winter annuals
3. Quackgrass
4. Perennial Sow Thistle
5. Canada Thistle
6. Toadflax
7. Annuals

Post-harvest strategies with glyphosate

Canada Thistle

• Apply only if thistles are actively growing with at least 3 to 4 new leaves, and only if 2 to 3 weeks of good growing conditions after spraying are normally expected. These characteristics ensure enough leaf area to accumulate the herbicide and ensure translocation of the herbicide to the rhizome buds in sufficient concentration to kill them.
• Frosts of -5°C or colder greatly reduce herbicide effectiveness for thistle control.
• Apply 1 litre per acre equivalent to actively growing thistles

Foxtail Barley

• Post-harvest glyphosate gives the best root-kill of established foxtail barley if soil moisture conditions allow the plants to remain actively growing.
• Optimum uptake and movements of glyphosate into foxtail barley roots occur at temperatures above 10°C.
• Apply 1 to 2 litres per acre equivalent. Use the higher rate with heavier infestations and mature plants.

Quackgrass

• At least 75% of the plant must be green and actively growing for effective spraying.
• A light frost (-2°C to -3°C) will not affect quack grass control using glyphosate, providing temperatures rise to the mid-teens during the day. Some studies have found improved control after a light frost.
• A heavy frost (-5°C or colder) requires at least three days delay prior to spraying to determine if the quack grass has recovered.
• Apply 1 litre per acre equivalent.

Dandelion

• Fall is the best time of year to control dandelion.
• Glyphosate, Express and PrePass have all been evaluated in fall vs. spring applications and each gave better control when applied in the fall.
• No additional control was realized by increasing glyphosate rates from 1 litre per acre (360 g per L formulation) to 1.5 litres per acre equivalent when applications were made in the fall, but the 1.5 litres per acre rate was required in the spring to match the level of control of the fall glyphosate treatments.
• More important than the absolute control of dandelion is the crop yield response that fall control provides. Past work has shown that even those treatments that result in marginal control (lower rates of 2,4-D or glyphosate) provide yield benefits when applied in the fall.

Source: Clark Brenzil, Provincial Weed Control Specialist, Manitoba

Do I use Pre-Pass, Express or just glyphosate?

Many retailers have been suggesting that growers use Pre-Pass or add Express SG to their glyphosate this fall. Although these products work very well on broadleaf weeds like dandelion, narrow-leaf hawk’s beard and cleavers, you still have to crank up the glyphosate to control weeds like foxtail barley, Canada thistle and quackgrass. That being said, using a higher rate of glyphosate alone at 1 litre per acre equivalent would give you the best chance of controlling big perennial weeds and newly germinated winter annuals. 

I really see the benefit of using Pre-Pass around the last week of September and into October. You can receive the full benefit of fall weed control and have it offer some residual control in the spring. I like to apply Pre-Pass on canola stubble to help control volunteer canola next spring. If you have a lot of Canada thistles, you can top up Pre-Pass with 500 ml of glyphosate equivalent and control thistle, quackgrass and foxtail barley at the same time.

As for Express SG, I don’t see a big benefit from using it at this time of year. It doesn’t offer you any residual control and applying more glyphosate will do a better job across all weeds for the same cost. I would save the Express SG for next spring when it really shines on hawk’s beard and dandelion. SL

Carbon News

The Manitoba Government launches environmental program for agriculture and claims the carbon credits

September 22, 2009- The Manitoba Government recently released its Beneficial Management Practices (BMPs) program that seeks to encourage farmers to adopt more environmentally friendly management practices. Details of the program can be found at http://web2.gov.mb.ca/agriculture/programs/index.php?name=aaa19s19. While there is a significant amount of material describing the program and eligible BMPs, the fact that the Province of Manitoba claims the carbon credits from the BMPs only appears in the Terms and Conditions section of the application form[1]. This highlights the importance of reading before signing, asking questions, and then making an informed and prudent business decision to participate or not.

A claim on the carbon credits may seem of no real consequence to a Manitoba farmer, since the carbon market hasn’t affected them yet. Let’s take a look outside of Manitoba and you be the judge if it’s something to be concerned about.

What’s happening in the rest of Canada?

• The Government of British Columbia created a carbon tax and set up the Pacific Carbon Trust to purchase BC origin carbon credits to reduce its GHG emissions. The PCT is currently in its second round of carbon credit purchases.
• The Alberta Government created mandatory GHG intensity reductions for its large final emitters back in 2007 and created a market for Alberta based carbon credits.
• Saskatchewan is about to launch its own mandatory GHG reductions in 2010 and carbon credits are included in that system.
• Ontario has announced its own mandatory GHG reduction policy and it includes carbon credits.
• The Government of Canada has released draft regulations for a carbon credit market as part of a future national system of mandatory GHG reductions starting in 2012. Furthermore, Canada has committed to harmonizing its carbon credit market and regulation with that under development in the US.
• What’s happening in the United States?
• The US House of Representatives passed legislation in May of this year mandating GHG reductions and creating a carbon credit market.
• The US Senate is just about to debate its version of the House’s legislation later this month and it is expected to become law before year end.
• • The proposed US climate change legislation includes significant provisions for carbon credits from agriculture.

What’s happening globally?

• In December, the world meets in Copenhagen to negotiate and decide on a replacement to the Kyoto protocol with binding GHG reductions on all signatories.
• Unlike the Kyoto protocol that did not have US participation, the US is expected to lead the discussions in Copenhagen and Canada’s participation is almost assured given the consequences of not agreeing to binding GHG reductions.
• The US which has announced trade sanctions against countries that don’t adopt comparable GHG reduction targets.

So now you have some background on what is going on outside of Manitoba today. The clear trend is for the use of carbon credits to help meet GHG reduction goals, whether it’s globally, nationally, or in most cases even provincially. The Manitoba Government’s unique approach to achieving its GHG reduction goals may place farmers at a disadvantage in the future, given the trend outside of the Province.

Like any well run business, markets for your products need to be considered in decision making. Carbon credits are created as a result of management decisions that are made that reduce or remove GHG emissions. Therefore, carbon credits can be considered a new commodity. Carbon credits appear to be growing in their acceptance and use in mandatory GHG reduction programs. The value of these compliance grade carbon credits can be significant.

Looking at the BMP program we can see a variety of environmentally friendly management practices are covered which also correspond to many of the recognized management practices needed to create carbon credits. This program may be very good value for the farmer, but like any contract, its terms and conditions need to be understood before a good business decision can be made. To get started on understanding what you may be getting into, you will need to get complete answers to the following questions:

1. How long does the Province of Manitoba claim the carbon credits?
2. The Province of Manitoba owns a share of the carbon credits based on its contribution, so how does the farmer get paid for their share?
3. Will the Province of Manitoba state in writing that participation in the program will not disqualify farmers from participating in the carbon market after the program is over? There is a risk, in our opinion, that the program is incenting farmers to change their current management practice and adopt a new practice. If this is the case, the farmer could be excluded permanently from receiving future carbon credits based on the management practices claimed in the BMP program.
4. If you have already sold or committed your carbon credits to someone else, do you still qualify for the program?

Without these answers in our opinion, it is impossible to assess the risk and value for the farmer in the BMP program. So why not get the answers, assess the opportunity, and make an informed decision.

Reference: Bruce Love, Preferred Carbon
Disclaimer:

Market News

Producer Crop and Weather Updates

South Australia: “Crops are looking very good on the Eyre Peninsula (western South Australia), with the northern areas having a decile 9 year and corresponding excellent crops. The southern areas suffered from the wetter season but have recovered mostly from this. Canola in this area is expected to yield only about average; cereal yields are expected to be above average. Yesterday a large thunderstorm band passed through and caused considerable hail damage (size of marbles through to golf balls). The extent of damage is hard to predict; reports of 10 to 100% damage, with perhaps up to 40% of grain growing area affected. I don't think it will be too bad. Grain prices are putting a dampener on the season with feed barley currently at $125 AU, APW wheat $205 and canola $425, and all falling!” Mark Modra, SA

Western Australia: “We have received a saving rain after the driest august on record (12mm) last week we received 23 mm which has revived the situation. Crops are now on target for ave. yields 2.5-3 t/ha. We will need a further 15-20mm to achieve this. Quality will most probably be good due to thin crops and a good finish to the season.” Simon Tiller, Esperance, WA

Victoria, Australia: “Central Victorian crops are still holding on but need rain to reach average yields. Northern Victoria has had hot weather and some of those crops have been cut for hay, and will be a quarter of average. The canola crowing areas are holding up well, as is the feed barley crops.” Andrew Broad, VIC

New South Wales, Australia. “Canola is in full flower and most wheat is just at head emergence. Unfortunately the weather has been unkind with many parts of the region receiving below average rain. The further west and north seems to be worse. A particularly hot weekend last week damaged many canola crops with some completely dropping all their flowers. Many canola crops are being cut for hay especially in the west of the region. The cereal crops are similar with the crops in the east still having good potential but thirsty while the further west you go the potential drops. Good rain is forecast for the coming week but it will be too late for many.” Murray Scholz, NSW

Eastern Canada: “Winter wheat finished a month ago. Farmers in southwestern Ontario are busy harvesting processing vegetable crops such as tomatoes, sweet corn, peppers, green beans as well as tobacco and seed corn. Some early variety seed soybeans are being harvested this weekend but we are still two weeks away from a full blown soybean harvest. Corn is in the milk stage and is a long way from harvest. The past 2 weeks has seen idea weather for the harvest without any rain delays. If we can avoid an early frost I believe we will have many record breaking fields of corn and soybeans.” Jack Rigby, Ontario

Ukraine: “The spring barley went 4,2T/ha, winter canola went 2.8 T/ha and sunflowers went 2.8 T/ha. The spring canola wasn’t harvested due to hail. We seeded winter canola at the end of August and it is now at the 8 leaf stage. We are currently seeding winter wheat.” Jean Paul Kihm, France

England: “Harvest all but finished in the UK. Scotland has been very wet and they are still finishing off. Harvest forecast yields are down 15% on last year due to reduced area and yield. Weather and soil conditions for eastern half of England are very dry. Planting of new crop is progressing very slowly with little rain forecast.” Nick Ward, Lincolnshire, England

Brazil: “We had some rains at the beginning of September but we had a period of “sanitary out” that finished the 15th of September. Farmers are starting to plant soybean crop for 09/10. Weather is very hot and predictions that rains might increase is encouraging more seeding.” Guilherme Kummer, Brazil

International Crop and Weather News

Western Canada: Harvest advanced substantially all across the Prairies last week due to temperatures that ranged from three to seven degrees above normal. Harvest is now about 60 per cent complete in Western Canada for all crops, up from 37 per cent last week, with Alberta the furthest advanced and Manitoba the most delayed. Typically, the Prairie harvest would be close to 80 per cent complete at this time. There was light frost in west central Alberta over the weekend, but this is not anticipated to have a large impact on overall production quality. Overall, the warm, dry weather has greatly reduced concerns about frost damage and widespread quality problems.

United States: In the West, highly variable conditions exist. Snow is falling in parts of Wyoming, while warm, dry, breezy weather is increasing the threat of wildfires in western Oregon and parts of California. In California and the Desert Southwest, fieldwork is advancing with few delays. On the Plains, a chilly rain is falling across northern and central portions of the region, excluding Montana. Cool, dry weather has returned to Montana. Meanwhile on the southern Plains, warm, mostly dry weather favors summer crop maturation and fieldwork, including winter wheat planting. In the Corn Belt, warm weather continues to promote corn and soybean maturation. However, an area of favorably dry weather in the central Corn Belt contrasts with showery conditions in both eastern and western portions of the region.

Europe: Dry weather over most of Europe accelerates summer crop harvesting and winter crop planting, although continuing dryness in Spain reduces already-depleted soil moisture and irrigation reserves.

Former Soviet Union: In major spring wheat areas of Kazakhstan and Russia, warm, dry weather improves conditions for crop maturation and harvesting. In western Russia and Ukraine, unseasonably warm, dry weather favors early summer crop harvesting and planting of the 2010 winter grain crop. Rain is needed for winter grain emergence and establishment. In cotton producing areas of Central Asia, unseasonably cold weather slows boll maturation.

East Asia: Light showers favor immature summer crops in Manchuria. Mostly dry weather favors summer crop maturation and cotton harvesting on the North China Plain and in the Yangtze Valley. Unfavorably dry weather persists in the south for reproductive to maturing late-crop rice.

Southeast Asia: Heavy rain, partly from Tropical Cyclone Mujigae, favors winter rice in southern Vietnam but is unfavorable for mature coffee in the Central Highlands. Tropical Cyclone Koppu exacerbates flooding across the northern Philippines.

South Asia: Locally heavy showers provide additional soil moisture for sugarcane and rice in northern India, further stabilizing crop prospects and boosting irrigation reserves. Unfavorable dryness returns to western and southern India’s cotton, groundnut, and soybean areas.

Australia: Warmer, drier weather returns to southern Queensland and northern New South Wales, reducing topsoil moisture for reproductive to filling winter wheat. In southeastern Australia, scattered, light showers benefit reproductive winter grains locally. In Western Australia, showery, seasonably mild weather favors winter grain and oilseed development.

South America: Rain in key farming areas of central Argentina increases moisture for vegetative to reproductive winter grains and the germination of newly planted corn and sunflowers. In southern Brazil, rain maintains abundant to locally excessive moisture for filling to maturing wheat and seasonal fieldwork but conditions favor flowering coffee and summer crop germination.

Mexico: Showers provide needed moisture for reproductive to filling corn and rain-fed summer crops.

Source: USDA