Agronomist Notes

Another week of fine weather has passed, bringing most of the 2009 harvest season to a close. I estimate harvest is 95% complete in my area. The only crop still out is canola with moisture contents well below 10% but green seed counts above 4%. The hot dry weather and some possible frosts in the last three weeks has dried canola down rapidly and locked in some green seed. Many producers are waiting for a shower to rewet the swaths and hope for a drop in green seed count; that’s where Mitch and I are caught at the moment.

Word on the street is that retailers are advising growers not to purchase all their glyphosate needs now for next spring as prices are predicted to drop and have already. Also, it was interesting to hear that Potash Corp has dropped their price estimates for potash to just below $400 a tonne. A drop in crop input prices is great but I suspect commodities will continue to follow and we’ll be back to the profit margins we were at prior to 2008. This may be a time to get land prices and land rental agreements down to a reasonable level.

In this week’s newsletter, I’ll discuss an interesting experiment in canola by visually examining plants in high traffic areas versus low traffic areas. Also, I will briefly discuss why Mitch and I will make the move to controlled traffic and inter-row seeding in 2010. Next, I will discuss the high green seed counts in canola briefly explain the process of “clearing chlorophyll”- going from green to yellow- to give you a better understanding of the plant’s physiology. Next, I’ll discuss tips for applying Avadex and Fortress this fall and why it’s a good idea and then finish with my thoughts on straight cutting canola. Can you tell I have canola on the brain? Bruce Love will update us on the Manitoba government’s recent play on carbon reductions and we’ll finish with fundamental and technical grain market news. Have a great week.

Agronomy

Comparing crop growth in high traffic areas versus low traffic areas

I recently had a picture sent to me from my mate Ruwy of Victoria, Australia, that displayed the root growth on his canola. The picture you see on the left was pulled straight out of the ground by hand, no shovel involved. I was impressed with the root development and his ability to pull that many roots out of the ground without them breaking off. Curious, I went out to our own field of canola to see what I could pull up.

I was not surprised at what I found. I pulled a few plants from the headland where I knew there would be minimal equipment traffic. Then, I walked 30 feet inside the field and pulled a few more plants where I knew I would find normal traffic. The soil type is a silty clay with approximately 65% of the field covered by wheel traffic each year from seeding, spraying and harvest.

In the photo at the right, take a look at the difference in stalk density, branching, root density and root length on each plant. The two plants on the right were easily pulled out of the ground by hand along the headland with no sounds of breaking or snapping. The three plants on the left were pulled from inside the field with some difficulty and I could hear roots breaking off. 
So what do I suspect is causing this dramatic difference in stalk density, branching, root density and root length? I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: compaction my friends, compaction. Now ask yourself, what would I like my plants to look like? Which plants would have a greater capacity to absorb nutrients, water, oxygen and carbon from the soil? Which plants would provide you with the highest yield? I think we know the answer. SL

Next year we move to controlled traffic and inter-row seeding

Having seen the remarkable results from controlled traffic and inter-row seeding in Australia last year, and the 12% yield increases in wheat from inter-row seeding research out of Swift Current, Mitch and I have decided to take the CTF plunge in 2010. We will be jumping into controlled traffic with both feet as we down size our air drill to 31 feet, upgrade our GPS from WAAS to RTK guided auto-steer, purchase or hire a 90-foot sprayer, and keep the 30-foot header on the combine but extend the auger two feet. I’m confident in our ability to make a smooth transition given the amount of support we have to get us started.

The RTK upgrade was not as expensive as I thought with a quote coming in from Roydale New Holland at $16,452, which includes the EZ-Guide 500 system with EZ-Steer, RTK upgrade with Z-Antenna, industrial grade cellular data modem plus dual antennas and 1 year RTK corrections subscription. I think you could drop the price by at least $5,000 if you already have an auto-steer system. You just have to make sure your GPS receiver is RTK ready.

I understand that logistically it will take some organizing but as a wise economics professor once told me, not everything in life is easy, nothing worthwhile ever is. The more I investigate controlled traffic and realize its ability to produce more grain under limited moisture conditions, the more I’m convinced this is the way for us to go on our clay soils. If you have any questions and would like to know more about controlled traffic, drop me an email and I can get you in touch with some producers who’ve been using CTF for years overseas. SL 

For more information on Controlled Traffic visit
http://www.ctfsolutions.com.au/easyweb3/WEBID-132275-ep_code-what_is_ctf

High green seed counts in canola

Many producers tried harvesting canola last week only to find high green kernel counts of 4% to 6%, even after 14 days in the swath. As you might recall, many canola fields were swathed just prior to a week of hot dry winds with temperatures reaching the low 30’s. The combination of hot weather and low humidity levels brought moisture contents down to 4.5% to 6% rapidly and stopped the enzymes ability to clear the chlorophyll properly. 

It’s important to note that chlorophyll clearing enzymes stop functioning at moisture contents of 20% or less. If canola is swathed during hot, windy weather which rapidly dries the immature seed to less than 20% moisture, the green colour will not clear. Rainfall and rewetting in the swath can reactivate these enzymes but it cannot be counted for consistent results.

Table 1: Relationship between grade, per cent green seed and chlorophyll in parts per million (ppm)

CGC Grade	Per Cent Green Seed
No. 1 Canada	< 2
No. 2 Canada	2 to 6
No. 3 Canada	6 to 20
Sample	> 20

As always, it pays to do your homework on pricing. If you do end up dropping to a No. 2 or No. 3 grade, be sure to call a number of grain companies like Louis Dreyfus, Viterra, Pioneer or Cargill before you make your decision to sell. Discounts for a No. 2 range from $10.00 a tonne at Viterra to $25.00 a tonne at Cargill. The discount from a No. 1 to a No. 3 at Viterra is $30.00 a tonne where Cargill’s discount is $90.00 a tonne! That’s a difference of $15.00 to $30.00 a tonne between two companies. SL

Reference: Alberta Agriculture

The process of clearing chlorophyll out of canola explained

Immature canola seed naturally contains a high level of chlorophyll, the green pigment that allows plants to photosynthesize, or turn the sun's energy into biomass. Fully and properly matured canola will have no chlorophyll, which we typically measure in Western Canada as per cent green seed. In high green seed samples, the chlorophyll that is produced during processing creates a dark colour to the oil which is difficult and expensive to remove.

At some point in seed formation, all canola will contain a high amount of chlorophyll. If maturity progresses normally, the chlorophyll will clear out through natural metabolic activity. Enzymes, proteins that facilitate biological processes, are responsible for the removal of chlorophyll and in canola, they are only active at temperatures above 5ºC and at seed moisture contents above 20 per cent.

Several different environmental factors in combination with agronomic practices can affect the ability of seed to rid itself of chlorophyll. The two most common are frost and extreme hot dry weather at or near swathing. As mentioned previously, enzymes are responsible for clearing of chlorophyll. Frost can denature or destroy these enzymes and render the plant unable to rid itself of chlorophyll regardless of the temperature and moisture conditions following a frost. On the other hand, extreme heat immediately post swathing can dramatically reduce the moisture content of the seed in a very short amount of time, leaving the seed without enough moisture to support enzymatic activity. As well, variety selection, disease and variable plant stand can and will affect green seed count, but are not of concern this late in the growing season.

Source: Saskatchewan Agriculture
http://www.agriculture.gov.sk.ca/adx/aspx/adxGetMedia.aspx?DocID=2119,342,185,81,1,Documents&MediaID=5547&Filename=Frost+and+Green+Seed+in+Canola+-+Printer+Friendly.pdf

Tips for applying granular herbicides this fall

Over the last two years, I’ve been trialing the use of fall and spring applied Avadex to help control wild oats in troublesome direct seeded fields. I think it’s funny when I say trialing because Avadex has been around for over three decades! What’s different now is the way we incorporate it. Today, all we need is a Valmar and a heavy harrow and we’re in business. After the impressive results I’ve seen from both spring and fall applied Avadex or fall applied Fortress, I think we’ve finally brought back a desperately needed Group 8 and Group 3 into the herbicide rotation.

With that, I’ve included some tips on fall applications of granular herbicides below:

• The optimal timing to apply Edge, Fortress or Avadex is just before freeze up when the soil temperature has dropped below 5° C.
• Applying these products too early on soil with temperatures greater than 5 degrees Celsius will activate the granules. You want the granules to activate in the spring and not now if you want control next year! 
• Fall applications only require a "tickle"- a gentle heavy harrowing to make sure the granules are dislodged from the straw and chaff and placed on the soil.
• Granular herbicides are soil-active, so we must provide every opportunity to place them on the soil. If excessive crop residue exists at application, a heavy harrowing should be done to ensure soil contact.
• Aggressive heavy harrowing can leave small trenches where the granules concentrate and leave you with patchy control the following year. Set the aggressiveness of your harrows properly.

The cost is of applying granular Avadex is roughly $15 an acre on soils with 4% or greater OM. For those of you without a Valmar attached to your heavy harrows, you can rent a heavy harrow/Valmar applicator for roughly $2.25 per acre or $375 per day. The SRP on Avadex is $1.30 lb and $1.57 lb for Fortress. I highly suggest you take the time to apply Avadex or Fortress in troublesome wild oat areas or fields. Believe me; you’ll be happy you did. SL

Photo source: farmauctionguide.com

Straight cutting canola on the rise

A lot of the misconceptions about straight cutting canola have been put to rest over the last few years. I had a chance to ride around with a producer who was combining 25 bushel canola near Three Hills where just four inches of rain fell this season. Of all the times to straight cut canola, this year was pushing the envelope. We’ve been told that you need a nice inter-woven canopy that has even maturity to straight cut canola. The canola you see in the picture was still blooming along the hill tops in September from late rains in August and poor germination. It was desiccated with glyphosate three weeks before harvest to help dry it down. The crop was not well knitted together nor was it evenly mature but it was straight cut without a problem. I will tell you the knives on the chopper were given a workout from all the green material in some areas but it seemed to have worked just fine.

I think Liberty Link varieties can withstand pod shatter very well and letting a 25 bushel canola crop stand may be less risky than swathing it onto 6 inch tall stubble where it can blow away in a wind storm (just like the one we just had). I have seen 25-70 bushel canola crops that withstand wind just fine with minimal shattering so we can lay that to rest. The one small risk would be hail. I had hail on my canola in 2007 where 90 acres of the field was swathed and 70 acres was left to straight cut. The canola in the swath received 30% hail and the standing canola had 70%!

The only concern I have with straight cutting canola is the green material that finds its way into the hopper. When binning canola, the green chaff tends to collect along the sides of the bin and has the potential to heat. If you decide to straight cut next year, be sure to place the canola straight into aeration to dry the canola and green material down. Aside from that, I think straight cutting canola has a bright future in our area. SL 

Carbon News

The Manitoba Government creates a cheap way to meet climate change goals

September 28, 2009- The Manitoba Government is bringing down its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions through accounting-based reductions, creating what may be a great opportunity to reduce the cost of meeting GHG reduction targets in other jurisdictions. This strategy was revealed when a recent press release by Farmers Edge asked questions about a Beneficial Management Practices (BMPs) Program for farmers that had the Provincial Government claiming a portion of the “carbon offsets” created by the adoption of more environmentally friendly farming practices. By claiming GHG reductions under the program, the Province reduces the amount of GHGs accounted for under Canada’s national GHG accounting system (for more information http://www.ec.gc.ca/pdb/ghg/ghg_home_e.cfm), and presto you have lower GHG emissions without the rigor imposed by other GHG reduction systems to prove they are real reductions. No monitoring, no verification, and no argument over whether the reductions are beyond business as usual or not. All this can dramatically reduce the costs for other provinces with higher GHG emissions to meet their targets.

Here is how the strategy works. The Government creates a BMP program that has environmental benefits. This uses taxpayers’ money to provide incentives to adopt environmentally friendly management practices. This would pay for a portion of a farmer’s bill to apply nitrogen fertilizers in the spring to reduce nitrous oxide emissions from the soil, to offset a portion of the costs of gas pipeline operators better maintaining valves to reduce the fugitive emissions of natural gas, and pretty much anything that could conceivably reduce GHG emissions. When the Government accounts for all GHGs in its economy, they apply the GHG accounting rules to the calculation. This accounting system uses estimates, so the full potential GHG reduction from a BMP is used bringing down the Provincial total. As that total comes down, so does the requirement for industry to meet imposed GHG reduction targets. A government could even allocate some of the BMP based reductions to selected industries offsetting their need to reduce emissions.

The strategy is really very cost effective as well, somewhat of a rarity in government programs these days. Since a reduction is created and not a carbon credit, many costs are avoided all together. Some of the major costs of creating carbon credits include accurately monitoring the reduction in GHG emissions, making sure they are continued and sustained through proper implementation of the activity and it’s independently verified that those reductions occurred. Also, the major issue of what qualifies as a carbon credit is avoided entirely. No arguments over whether or not the reduction was real or as the result of the price of carbon, which is the so-called “additionality” criteria for carbon credits.

Now back to the opportunity Manitoba has created for every jurisdiction in Canada to help meet GHG reduction goals. To help illustrate the opportunity, let’s put some hypothetical numbers to it. Suppose the Manitoba Government has $16 million to spend in its BMP program and generates, let say, 2 million tonnes of CO2e reductions annually in their accounting based programs to 2012. They recently announced that the BMP program will claim the carbon offsets until then. So using our basic math skills, that’s about $2.66/tonne of CO2e reduction. The carbon market in Alberta requires LFEs to pay into a Tech Fund at $15/tonne of CO2e, or pay around $12/tonne for a carbon credit. Clearly this same strategy could benefit Alberta and help offset the burden to its industry to reduce its GHG emissions.

The Alberta government could create a wide range of BMPs for all sectors of the economy and even get some Federal Government money as well (its all taxpayer funds of one sort or another) just like Manitoba and reduce its GHG emissions at a fraction of what it costs today. This would not likely entirely resolve the problem that the oil and gas sector and thermal electricity generation faces in Alberta when it comes to GHG emissions, but it would certainly significantly reduce their costs. Given the obvious cost advantage of the Manitoba approach, large final emitters everywhere should also recognize it as a heck of a deal.

Reference: Bruce Love, Preferred Carbon
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author only and are not intended to represent financial advice.

Market News

Fundamental Grain Market News

World Production in Million Metric Tonnes   Sept 09 ending stocks vs five year average

	Production			Ending Stocks			Ending Stocks
	2007-08	Sep-09	Change	2007-08	Sep-09	Change	5 Year Avg
Rapeseed	48.4	56.5	17%	3	4.9	59%	4.6	8%
Barley	133.2	142.9	7%	18	27.1	50%	25.7	5%
Wheat	610.6	663.7	9%	119	186.6	56%	138.6	35%
Corn	792.3	794.1	0%	128	139.1	9%	125.9	11%
Soybeans	220.9	243.9	10%	53	50.5	-5%	54	-6%

International Crop and Weather News

Western Canada: Another week of near-ideal harvest weather has brought the western Canadian harvest to 76-per-cent complete, now only slightly behind the average of 78-per-cent complete at this date. Temperatures were three to eight degrees above normal for the fourth consecutive week. The spring cereal harvest is wrapping up in southern and central areas.

United States: In the West, very warm, dry weather favors fieldwork, including Northwestern wheat planting, California’s rice harvest, and the Southwestern cotton harvest. On the Plains, dry weather accompanies near- to below-normal temperatures. As a result, winter wheat planting is accelerating, while other fieldwork activities are proceeding with few delays. Windy conditions are gradually subsiding in the Dakotas. In the Corn Belt, cool, windy conditions prevail, while scattered showers linger in the Great Lakes region. Midwestern corn and soybeans continue to approach or reach maturity, while some early-season harvest activities are resuming across the southern and western Corn Belt.

Middle East: Additional showers are untimely for cotton harvesting in Turkey. Rain in northwestern Iran provides topsoil moisture for winter wheat planting and establishment.

Europe: Showers return to Europe, slowing summer crop harvesting and winter crop planting. However, cooler, rainy weather in Spain provides a much-needed boost to soil moisture and irrigation reserves.

Former Soviet Union: In western Russia and Ukraine, unseasonably warm, dry weather continues to aid summer crop harvesting and winter grain planting. Rain is needed for winter grain germination and establishment. In major spring wheat areas of Russia and Kazakhstan, dry weather favors harvest activities. In cotton producing areas of Central Asia, warm, dry weather favors boll maturation and harvest.

East Asia: Light showers favor immature summer crops in Manchuria, although patchy frost was possible in Heilongjiang. Several days of dry weather favor summer crop harvesting throughout the southern half of China. Unfavorable dryness persists in the south for immature late-crop rice.

Southeast Asia: Heavy rain benefits reproductive rice in Thailand and vegetative winter rice in Vietnam, while dry weather benefits mature coffee in the Central Highlands of Vietnam. Mostly dry weather eases wetness in the northern Philippines, while soil moisture remains favorable for rice and corn throughout the country.

South Asia: Unfavorable dryness returns to central and northern India, reducing soil moisture for reproductive to filling summer crops and likely signaling an early withdrawal of the monsoon. Rain in southern India maintains favorable prospects for groundnuts and sugarcane.

Australia: Scattered showers in the Western Australia wheat belt aid development of reproductive winter grains. Showers in southeastern Australia maintain adequate moisture supplies for winter grains and oilseeds. Hot, dry weather increases net evaporative losses in Queensland and northern New South Wales, likely causing further reductions in the yield potential of filling winter wheat.

South America: In Argentina, locally heavy rain increases moisture for wheat development and summer crop planting. In Brazil, rain keeps winter wheat unfavorably wet in southern farming areas. Temporarily drier weather allows some fieldwork in central Brazil, including wheat, coffee, and sugarcane harvesting.

Mexico: Rain benefits immature corn and other rain-fed summer crops on the southern plateau.

Source: USDA