August 22, 2013

Agronomist Notes

Hello Reader

Last week brought warm temperatures and sporadic rainfall. Crops are really starting to turn and harvest is about to begin. Peas have been desiccated and will start to come off this week. Malt barley is being swathed in some areas and wheat planted the 1st week of May is being pre-harvested now.

Fertilizer purchases are occurring already with some locking in $460 urea delivered October. It’s hard to say what the downside of urea is but it may fall a little more should commodity prices continue to slide.

In this newsletter, we’ll look at how harvest traffic impacts wheat yield. Next, I’ll show you a cool planting technology that improves canola seed singulation in planters. I’ll also share some an interesting relationship between sunspot activity and grain prices and finish with tips on using grain baggers as some look for increased storage capacity this fall. We’ll end with technical grain market news.

Crop Staging

(Calgary to Drumheller to Three Hills)

Seeded May 1-7 May 8-15 May 15-22
Wheat Hard dough Medium dough Soft dough
Canola Mature Mid podding Early podding
Barley Hard dough Medium dough Medium dough
Peas Mature Preharvest Late pod

Steve's tips & tricks of the week

Follow me on Twitter for in-season updates @BeyondAgronomy

We're now on the tail end for sweeping for lygus bugs in canola. My thresholds are at 5/sweep at this point on later maturiing canola.
Scout for Bertha Armyworms in canola, some select fields are at threshold levels.
Purchase glyphosate for pre-harvest before preferred products are sold out.
Look for uneven patterns in fields to address seeding depth or residue issues and correct them before next year.

Harvest traffic impacts yield

A change in direction

We’re just coming into harvest and I thought I’d share some interesting data on the impact of harvest wheel traffic. Combines carry some of the heaviest axle loads of any equipment we operate and can do some serious damage to the soil. How much is the question. Well, Quenten Knight of Precision Agronomics Australia in Esperance, WA shared some yield data from a field that was in CTF for 7 years before switching direction for efficiency reasons.

The CTF field was on a 12M system, which meant there were high traffic tramlines (seeding, spraying, harvest) and low traffic tramlines (harvest only). Yield was measured by taking 8 x 0.5M cuts in the high, low traffic trams and un-wheeled areas and replicated four times for each treatment. Grain samples were weighed and screened for size. The results were as follows:

High Traffic Trams: 2.79 T/ha, 17% more screenings
Low Traffic Trams: 3.05 T/ha, 3% more screenings
No Traffic: 3.26 T/ha

Total yield loss across field: 100 kg/ha or $32.00/ha

There was a 6.4% yield loss from low traffic tramlines that had only one pass of a combine each year. There was a 14.4% yield loss in the high traffic trams where seeding, spraying and harvest occurred. The low traffic tram also had 3% more thin kernels while the high traffic trams had 17% more thin kernels compared to un-wheeled areas of the field. Since the tramlines only accounted for 10% of the entire field, the yield loss was 100 kg/ha (1.5 bu/ac) or $32.00/ha ($12.95 ac).

The data revealed a 14.4% yield loss in heavily trafficked areas and a 6.4% yield loss from just one pass with the combine. That’s in a CTF system that narrows the damage to just 10% of the field. Cross over to Western Canada where we cover 14% to 17% of our fields with one pass of the combine and then add seeding and spraying traffic. Subsequently, you could have up to 40% of the field experiencing 14% yield losses using this scenario. Here’s a little math to state the issue.

Steve’s quick math
1 ac x 40% wheel traffic x 14.4% yield loss x $450/ac revenue = $25.92/ac
1 ac x 17% combine traffic x 6.4% yield loss x $450/ac revenue = $4.89/ac

The losses could be substantial. I think many people would be shocked by how much harvest traffic impacts yield in Western Canada. If I were to tell you CTF could increase yields between 6% and 14%, would you make the switch? Mitch and I made the switch 4 years ago and we’re taking it to the bank. SL

A big thanks to Quenten Knight from Precision Agronomics Australia for sharing his research.

Photo: Old tram lines and new tram line direction. Q. Knight

Seed singulation advancing in canola

Vacuum planters

Producers across Western Canada and Australia are experimenting with vacuum planters in canola. The metering systems on vacuum planters are deadly accurate when fine-tuned properly. To date, the two biggest challenges with metering canola accurately is the variability in seed size and flaking of seed treatment, which both cause disk plugging. The end result is uneven seed spacing in each furrow, so we’re missing a critical element in maximizing yield.

Jeff Calder from the Red River Valley in Manitoba has a prototype 90-hole disk with knockout wheels built for John Deere planters. He informs me they do an excellent job of singulating canola seed, even with seed sizes ranging from 3.7 to 6.7 grams/1000 kernels and the presence of seed treatment flakes. The key to the system is designing the right knockout wheel to clean out the holes and prevent plugging. This allows the seed to be metered out one by one with the odd double and provide true singulation, something that hasn’t been achieved to date.

See video of the 90-hole disk in action at 6 inches of vacuum set on 15-inch spacing with a target of 280,000 plants per acre here.

The top photo shows a side-by-side comparison of a John Deere 1890 disk drill on 10-inch spacing with a 1910 tank seeded at 5 lbs/ac versus a John Deere 1790 vacuum planter seeded at 2.6 lbs/ac. The bottom photo shows the seed spacing in the furrow.

Vacuum planter metering systems are far superior to today’s roller metering systems found in standard air carts. The biggest issue to date with planters has been disk plugging. Already, solutions are starting to come forward to solve the plugging issues and really dial in the planters to singulate seed consistently. It’s great to see the innovation out there and can’t wait to see where canola planting technology will be in five years. SL

Peak sunspot activity and falling wheat prices

Many of you likely know the connection between sunspot activity and high wheat prices. Studies going back to the 1700's reveal that high wheat prices are strongly correlated with low sunspot activity. Low sunspot activity leads to higher global cloud cover and more precipitation. One would think that would lead to higher grain production but it actually leads to less area harvested, lower quality wheat and lower global ending stocks.

To give you an example, if you look at the graph here, you can see that 1996-97 and 2007-08 were periods of low sunspot activity. Coincidentally, both marketing years had global wheat stock to use ratios of 19.3% and 19.55 respectively, the lowest in over 30 years. These record low ending stocks coincided with above average wheat prices. So what does this mean to use today? Well, 2013 is shaping up to be the highest sunspot activity in the eleven-year cycle. Coincidentally, wheat prices have been falling since the spring.

Everything on earth seems to run in cycles and low sunspot activity runs on an eleven-year cycle. If you look at the graph you’ll see that 2008, 2009 and 2010 recorded the lowest sunspot activity in the eleven-year cycle and coincidentally wheat prices hit at all time high, just as they did in 1996-1997. Looking at the charts we are moving into a period of high sunspot activity with the peak in 2013. Wheat prices may continue to decline as the world begins to produce more during this period. SL

Research

Grain bag storage tips

10 things you won't read in the manual

The use of grain bags for temporary storage has grown dramatically over the last few years. Producers have chosen grain bags for the simple benefits of loading B-train's (45T) in under 20 minutes, no bin bottoms to clean up, virtually no shoveling, few insect problems and the ability to store tough grain for long periods of time compared to upright storage. All these benefits can be realized for a $25,000 investment to purchase a bagger and an additional $50,000 to own an un-loader. After that, storage costs run roughly six to seven cents a bushel depending on the volume put through. All this sounds wonderful but what grain bags don't come with is a "what not to do" manual to help avoid the mishaps you often hear about. (Oh, deer!)

I had a chat last year with a seasoned grain bag veteran who's lived through long storage periods and tough harvests. He's paid his tuition to learn the nuances of grain bag storage and is now better for it. With that, here are the top ten things you should know before you cover a single kernel of grain with a plastic bag:

Do not load grain bags down slope; a slight incline to flat is best to fill bags properly. Also, be sure to keep them straight!
Do not place grain bags on grass or pastures because mice and other rodents tend to hang out in undisturbed sites and will tear open bags. Same applies for coulee banks or areas where wildlife likes to congregate during the winter. A grain bag should not be a winter playground for deer.
Do not place grain bags side by side. Place them one in front of the other down the field to speed up unloading and alleviate snow drifts.
You can store tough grain but not wet grain. If you store grain higher than 20% moisture over winter you will turn that wet grain into a 10 x 250-foot frozen sausage that's impossible to unload or sell at the local farmer's market.
Do not plow snow around the bags until you're ready to unload them, unless you've got wildlife running on top of them. Plowed snow sets up like concrete around the grain bag making it impossible to clear snow a second time without tearing the sides of the bag.
Clean up grain spills around the bag to avoid attracting deer and rodents. A little bit of spilled grain can turn a grain bag into a feed bunk for Bambi and his pals.
Some producers have found success spreading bone meal around the entire bag when deer have broken into the bags. Wooden pallets placed at the ends of the bag work like a cattle guard and discourage feeding.
Make sure the tractor is in neutral when loading a bag to avoid overfilling and splitting. Let the bag push the tractor.
Try to get the bags unloaded before the end of winter. There could be holes in the bottom of the bag from stubble or rodents and while this isn't a big deal when the snow is frozen, once it starts to melt there will be a river running through the inside of the bag.
Place bags in a north/south direction but understand that snowdrifts are just something you have to manage.

The best way to discover the ins and outs of grain bags is to talk to the local rep who sells them and talk to farmers who've used them for a few years. Grain bags are a great storage alternative but they're not without risk and many a farmer has learned how not to store grain in bags the hard way. Don't be that person and make a few phone calls first. SL

Thanks to Jason James, of Drumheller, AB, for passing along his insider secrets on grain bag storage.